Noooooo much quicker than that.
Noooooo much quicker than that.
We should start tracking the predictions of all the sites and place against each the actual result, and start to see who is clever and who is not.FittingMechanics wrote: ↑29 Feb 2024, 21:54F1 with their predictions. I'd love to see how they got to these numbers. I fail to see any metric where the data fits what they predicted.
I have a suspicion that this "analysis" is heavily influenced by "magic numbers" where they fit teams where they expect them to be. Red Bull did not show much yet they predict them P1, McLaren looked good in race pace yet they put them far down.
F1's Friday ones will definitely be near the bottom, they are horrendous. The Race generally does a better job of compiling long run data, not always accurate with their calls but good useful info for the readermwillems wrote: ↑29 Feb 2024, 22:15We should start tracking the predictions of all the sites and place against each the actual result, and start to see who is clever and who is not.FittingMechanics wrote: ↑29 Feb 2024, 21:54F1 with their predictions. I'd love to see how they got to these numbers. I fail to see any metric where the data fits what they predicted.
I have a suspicion that this "analysis" is heavily influenced by "magic numbers" where they fit teams where they expect them to be. Red Bull did not show much yet they predict them P1, McLaren looked good in race pace yet they put them far down.
McLaren announced, from memory around June, that the new tunnel was up and running, and would not be used for any development work on the 60. The impression they gave at the time that they were satisfied with the correlation of the new tunnel. Why would they not be doing initial testing of the MCL38 in it unless it was too late? Hence my speculation that the development cycle is around 9 months to preseason test.
Ahh I thought you meant from conception to the first wind test, I read it wrong.BMMR61 wrote: ↑29 Feb 2024, 22:34McLaren announced, from memory around June, that the new tunnel was up and running, and would not be used for any development work on the 60. The impression they gave at the time that they were satisfied with the correlation of the new tunnel. Why would they not be doing initial testing of the MCL38 in it unless it was too late? Hence my speculation that the development cycle is around 9 months to preseason test.
Yes, it's true. I haven't noticed in a long time that in free practice McLaren drive very fast, just to console themselves. As a rule, on the contrary, they drive quietly, not giving their best. It is difficult to judge who has what reserve on speed still has, but that's what qualifying and the race is for. We'll see soon.
Tyre operating window and car setup are two things I'll be really interested to watch over this season. I'm braced for an average first race (but always hopeful), but keen to see how the season unfolds for McLaren vs the rest.SmallSoldier wrote: ↑29 Feb 2024, 20:14I’m sure the Austria packaged helped, but that was more an aero upgrade (bringing more efficiency to the package), but it wasn’t a mechanical change… which was one of the main culprits for the “window width”.MCLvamos wrote: ↑29 Feb 2024, 20:11To be fair I think that was solved decently (although not completely) with the Austria package.SmallSoldier wrote: ↑29 Feb 2024, 20:10
There were several mechanical / chassis changes, so there might still be a bit too learn in terms of setup, but with the regulations been stable, I would be surprised if they don’t have a very good idea of “what works”.
The one thing that I haven’t found any information about is in regards to the operating window for the tires… Did we increase the window? McLaren suffered a lot in “hot conditions” last year, with a car that could heat up the tires quiet quick, but could overheat them as easy… My understanding is that the operating window of the tires for the MCL60 was quiet narrow and that made them compromise a bit in terms of setup
But I’m just speculating… Excited about the start of the season, let’s have a good one!
I’m with you… I’m sure there is still some performance to unlock based on setup alone… If they are not miles ahead from the leading pack (not necessarily P1) and able to fight with the cars around them, it will be a good start to the seasonMostlyeels wrote: ↑01 Mar 2024, 00:02Tyre operating window and car setup are two things I'll be really interested to watch over this season. I'm braced for an average first race (but always hopeful), but keen to see how the season unfolds for McLaren vs the rest.SmallSoldier wrote: ↑29 Feb 2024, 20:14I’m sure the Austria packaged helped, but that was more an aero upgrade (bringing more efficiency to the package), but it wasn’t a mechanical change… which was one of the main culprits for the “window width”.
But I’m just speculating… Excited about the start of the season, let’s have a good one!
It would be unlike McLaren to go for "glory runs" in FP. Usually it is other way around. They are slow in FPs, especially on Friday but then much better on Saturday and Sunday.
I agree. Only on a few weekends last year did McLaren not make strong gains between FP and qualifying. The problem in the first half of the season was then taking that pace into the race without degradation killing off the anticipated competitiveness. So far from what I've seen we seem to have decent race sim pace, Oscar's stint yesterday looked surprisingly close to RedBull especially considering the Bahrain layout and the abrasiveness of the surface.FittingMechanics wrote: ↑01 Mar 2024, 00:14It would be unlike McLaren to go for "glory runs" in FP. Usually it is other way around. They are slow in FPs, especially on Friday but then much better on Saturday and Sunday.
Oscar said they need to figure out why the car is quick sometime and slow other times. I guess they still don't fully grasp this car and it's possible this good pace goes away tomorrow.
Do you have a link to that quote from Oscar?FittingMechanics wrote: ↑01 Mar 2024, 00:14It would be unlike McLaren to go for "glory runs" in FP. Usually it is other way around. They are slow in FPs, especially on Friday but then much better on Saturday and Sunday.
Oscar said they need to figure out why the car is quick sometime and slow other times. I guess they still don't fully grasp this car and it's possible this good pace goes away tomorrow.
https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/vide ... 75210.htmlmwillems wrote: ↑01 Mar 2024, 08:18Do you have a link to that quote from Oscar?FittingMechanics wrote: ↑01 Mar 2024, 00:14It would be unlike McLaren to go for "glory runs" in FP. Usually it is other way around. They are slow in FPs, especially on Friday but then much better on Saturday and Sunday.
Oscar said they need to figure out why the car is quick sometime and slow other times. I guess they still don't fully grasp this car and it's possible this good pace goes away tomorrow.