Even with Australia win, for me this race was Ferrari's most impressive so far. On the hottest day of the weekend and after a very disappointing Q session, they delivered in the race in fashion. If Perez didn't just deliver career best race in Japan, it would have been a completely deserved double podium.
Arguably, both Ferraris were slowed down by McLarens in the first stint, looks like by 3-5 tenths a lap. Taking that into account and all the time lost overtaking after pitting, Sainz would have been at least 5s closer and Leclerc even more even with that off in Degner 2. Sainz was fairly equal to Max on Hards, even though he had to overtake 4 (?) cars in the same stint.
Somewhere around this time last year I started to look at RB and Ferrari deg from a tyre operation point of view, but there were so many things wrong with SF23 so I didn't bother discussing it as there wasn't any consistent data. Even the end of season performance skewed things so much. However after a very different start this year, and especially with Hass' 2024 results and race pace, I am now 99% certain there's something inherent to tyre treatment depending on how you design the suspension, and not just pure setup and driving style.
This is a bit simplistic diagram of X tyre compound behaviour regarding grip and deg as a function of tyre temp. I've asked some people who know more of that matter and was told it's simplistic but overall trends are accurate - there's a temp sweet-spot for optimal grip and in general the hotter the tyre the more it will degrade. In 2023, I think this is a fairly accurate state of tyre treatment:
I believe it was almost the same for RB in 2022 and Ferrari was more to the left but not as much as RB. In any case, this situation would have left Ferrari with very narrow performance window and dropping out of it would mean either huge deg or unexpectedly poor cornering performance. Last year we saw both things happen during races. At the same time, it would be incredibly easy to keep the car at the peak of performance in Q and this was also the case last year. This year I think we have something like this:
Basically, Ferrari moved their window to where RB was last 2 years and RB moved more towards peak performance this year, but nowhere near SF-23 levels. Seeing how things went today, I can't imagine Max would have been able to repeat the brutal one-stop performance of Miami 2023. I'd even say this might be almost complete reversal of early 2022 tyre treatment, since even then RB was realistically closer in the race than they were on Q pace.
All in all I don't think there's much difference between these two approaches. Arguably, trading a bit of peak grip for better deg is always better for the race since it allows you to push without fear of sudden massive drop-off - exhibit A: Australia race and differences between Sainz' and Leclerc's 3rd stint. It also gives far more resistance on temperature variations between Q and race and during the race. On the other hand, if you get the pole and are able to run in clear air you can also control the race so it's not a bad approach.
What would be the best of both worlds? Setting the car up for the race and having enough downforce to still put the car on pole. From everything Vasseur and Cardille said so far - they are happy with how they handle the tyres and won't compromise it for outright performance, they will add performance through downforce alone and these are the 3-4 tenths they always mention. After so many pointless pole positions last year, this really is the right way to the top for Ferrari.
