2024 Azerbaijan Grand Prix - Baku, Sep 13-15

[Vanja #66]

Tyre selection
C3 - C4 - C5

2023 Results
Qualifying



Race





2023 Pole Lap
2023 Race Highlights
Schedule and more information

[SiLo]

Are we expecting a 1-stop with zero variety again? If so, I expect we will be waiting for safety cars to create any kind of grid mix ups.

[Vanja #66]

Are we expecting a 1-stop with zero variety again? If so, I expect we will be waiting for safety cars to create any kind of grid mix ups.

Should be a 1-stop, some may try to go Soft-Hard though but I don't think Soft-Medium will be possible

[ali623]

Are we expecting a 1-stop with zero variety again? If so, I expect we will be waiting for safety cars to create any kind of grid mix ups.

Good luck, we haven't had one since Canada...

[bananapeel23]

Should be a 1-stop, some may try to go Soft-Hard though but I don't think Soft-Medium will be possible

What were the strategies in 2023? The track had just been resurfaced last year, which led to much faster lap times like in Monza this year. Still I seem to recall it was a Soft-Hard or Medium-Hard race, right?

Either way I'd be very surprised if it isn't a 2-horse race out front between McLaren and Ferrari. Sector 2 is almost certainly going to be VERY strong for Ferrari, which will make it very hard to overtake them, since they will build a gap just before the main straight. McLaren will probably be narrowly best in Sector 1 and Sector 3, but comfortably behind in sector 2. I'd expect Mercedes to once again be ahead of Red Bull, given how bumpy Sector 2 is and how Merc has been pretty solid in slow corners and over bumps since Monaco.

It's probably going to be pretty close and come down to strategy, since McLaren probably has the better all-rounder, but Ferrari will be really, really strong in sector 2.

Leclerc pole into Leclerc win seems most likely to me. Ferrari has historically been good here, but has never won. The main thing that has been holding Ferrari back here historically has been tyre wear and race pace, which has tended to be pretty good on the SF-24. The Ferraris that have been good on their tyres have been really good around here (notably 2017), while they have been consistently great in quali. Not to mention the fact that this is a Leclerc special track. He has only ever gotten pole (+ sprint pole in 2023) or put it in the wall here while driving for Ferrari, despite having run the 2021 and 2023 tractors here. I'd argue it's his best track alongside Monaco.

[Vanja #66]

What were the strategies in 2023? The track had just been resurfaced last year, which led to much faster lap times like in Monza this year. Still I seem to recall it was a Soft-Hard or Medium-Hard race, right?

Either way I'd be very surprised if it isn't a 2-horse race out front between McLaren and Ferrari. Leclerc pole into Leclerc win seems most likely to me, since the main thing that has been holding Ferrari back here historically has been tyre wear and race pace, which has tended to be pretty good on the SF-24. Sector 2 is almost certainly going to be VERY strong for Ferrari, which will make it very hard to overtake them, since they will build a gap just before the main straight.

McLaren will probably be narrowly best in Sector 1 and Sector 3.

I've put all strategies in the opening post, it was Medium-Hard for most of them.

Although Leclerc is credited as being fastest on one lap around Baku lately, he had the cars for it these last 3 years. Especially last year, where he wasn't the quickest through any apex, but SF23 had its tyres in perfect place on one lap and Lecler used this to get on throttle earlier than Red Bull and this is how he got the pole.

SF24 is not great in Qualyfing this year and I can't see Leclerc getting the pole now, unless they actually made a huge step with the Monza floor which is highly unlikely. Perhaps they can match McLaren pace, but I don't see them getting track position advantage. On top of that, Red Bull should be much better than Monza and W15 is also very quick on one lap.

[SiLo]

I can easily see it being close between Norris and Leclerc.

[bananapeel23]

Although Leclerc is credited as being fastest on one lap around Baku lately, he had the cars for it these last 3 years.

On top of that, Red Bull should be much better than Monza and W15 is also very quick on one lap.

Leclerc most certainly did not have the car in 2021 and still put it on pole. (He was putting in purple sectors when the red flag came out, too).

Remember that you predicted Red Bull to win Monaco despite their weakness over bumps already being well known by then?

I’d be very hesitant about predicting Red Bull to be really good around any ”real” street track. They’ve consistently been pretty bad around them.

Baku is probably the 3rd most ”street” track behind Singapore and Monaco. I’d be very surprised if they were competitive here. They might not be as bad as Monza, but I have a hard time seeing them being better than any of the other top 4 teams.

Also a thing worth mentioning is that it is likely to be MUCH hotter than it usually is, given that they are racing in the summer instead of late spring, which is bad for McLaren and good for Ferrari.

[monkeyboy1976]

This was Checo's last win. Nearly 500 days ago....

[Vanja #66]

Leclerc most certainly did not have the car in 2021 and still put it on pole. (He was putting in purple sectors when the red flag came out, too).

Remember that you predicted Red Bull to win Monaco despite their weakness over bumps already being well known by then?

I’d be very hesitant about predicting Red Bull to be really good around any ”real” street track. They’ve consistently been pretty bad around them.

Baku is probably the 3rd most ”street” track behind Singapore and Monaco. I’d be very surprised if they were competitive here. They might not be as bad as Monza, but I have a hard time seeing them being better than any of the other top 4 teams.

Also a thing worth mentioning is that it is likely to be MUCH hotter than it usually is, given that they are racing in the summer instead of late spring, which is bad for McLaren and good for Ferrari.

Didn't Leclerc also take pole in Monaco? SF21 was setup more towards Q than Race in Baku we can say, based on how the race went.

I predicted RB to win during the weekend after their struggles became obvious? Could you quote me on that, I only remember saying they will improve by Q and they did (especially compared to FP1)? Maybe I was slightly optimistic about them, as they won 5/7 races by then and had 2-3 races where they improved a lot Friday-Saturday I'm not placing them as favourites in Baku though, I'm saying they should be better than Monza and they tend to be very good in Q this year.

It won't be as hot as Monza in Baku, but SF24 shouldn't have any troubles with tyre warmup in Q. However, they still come more alive in the race. McLaren is very good either way, I believe their setup choice gave them an edge in Monza Q3 and disadvantage for the race, having to go stop 2 times. There won't be such a difference in wing level in Spa, so we'll see much better where things stand now

[bananapeel23]

Leclerc most certainly did not have the car in 2021 and still put it on pole. (He was putting in purple sectors when the red flag came out, too).

Remember that you predicted Red Bull to win Monaco despite their weakness over bumps already being well known by then?

I’d be very hesitant about predicting Red Bull to be really good around any ”real” street track. They’ve consistently been pretty bad around them.

Baku is probably the 3rd most ”street” track behind Singapore and Monaco. I’d be very surprised if they were competitive here. They might not be as bad as Monza, but I have a hard time seeing them being better than any of the other top 4 teams.

Also a thing worth mentioning is that it is likely to be MUCH hotter than it usually is, given that they are racing in the summer instead of late spring, which is bad for McLaren and good for Ferrari.

Didn't Leclerc also take pole in Monaco? SF21 was setup more towards Q than Race in Baku we can say, based on how the race went.

I predicted RB to win during the weekend after their struggles became obvious? Could you quote me on that, I only remember saying they will improve by Q and they did (especially compared to FP1)? Maybe I was slightly optimistic about them, as they won 5/7 races by then and had 2-3 races where they improved a lot Friday-Saturday I'm not placing them as favourites in Baku though, I'm saying they should be better than Monza and they tend to be very good in Q this year.

It won't be as hot as Monza in Baku, but SF24 shouldn't have any troubles with tyre warmup in Q. However, they still come more alive in the race. McLaren is very good either way, I believe their setup choice gave them an edge in Monza Q3 and disadvantage for the race, having to go stop 2 times. There won't be such a difference in wing level in Spa, so we'll see much better where things stand now

Looking back at it. You weren't predicting a Red Bull win, but you were massively underselling the low speed performance and bump/kerb riding of the Ferrari, and didn't expect Red Bull to be as bad over the bumps as they ended up being. Overall a bit optimistic about Red Bull, but the past is the past.

Still I think it is worth pointing out that despite the relatively bad quali performance of the Ferrari this year, the usual suspects are still where they are at their best in quali. (Australia, Bahrain, Monaco, Monza, Spa). It isn't quite as peaky as the old Ferraris, but it still performs at its best where Ferraris tend to be at their best. With that in mind, I strongly suspect Baku will be no exception and that they will be very competitive there.

Where do you see Ferrari in the pecking order here? Because I can't see them being any worse than 2nd best.

[Vanja #66]

Where do you see Ferrari in the pecking order here? Because I can't see them being any worse than 2nd best.

As I said, I expect them to be up there with McLaren overall. I mean, Baku isn't particularly hard for overtaking, but qualifying behind both Mercs and Max and maybe even Perez (he's usually good here) even if they are better on pace would lose them a lot of time and McLarens can steam ahead... On paper, this shouldn't happen, but you never know, cars are extremely close.

Friday will tell us a lot, there's one possible aero configuration so I don't think they will make a mistake there like they did in the first few races this year. In Monza they started with lowest possible wing level and let the track come to them, while others had more wing the whole time. This was a good approach and McLaren did the same thing in Miami and Imola, for example, while Red Bull unloaded more than once between Friday and Saturday

[organic]

Expecting a Leclerc pole & win. Leclerc dominates this track

Think that McLaren/Ferrari will duke it out while RB will be close with Merc

[Xyz22]

Big favourite will be McLaren which is the best car overall.

Baku layout should help Ferrari and Leclerc especially though.

[ScuderiaLeo]

Every time someone claims a Leclerc pole here, I fear they've jinxed it more and more

I would be extremely shocked if anyone other than Norris or Leclerc got it though, so maybe I'm part of the problem.