2024 United States Grand Prix - COTA, Oct 18-20

[venkyhere]

The Red Bull definitely kinder to its tyres thus a Max win is a forgone conculsion.

That's the most likely scenario, but we haven't seen anyone run H tyre. The key for tomorrow is pace on H tyre. How many times have we seen a car do well on one compound, and if the next compound is harder or softer, immediately suffers, Tyre deg with the current PIrelli compounds, in this ground effect era, is like quantum mechanics - it's both known and unknown.

The only team/driver who might do a one stop for the race is most likely Ferrari/LeClerc - and that provides a great chance for victory to Ferrari.

[Jurgen von Diaz]

What is Alonso's problem with Lawson? What happened?

[marcel171281]

Max would've been on pole. The Ferraris were also going strong, a tenth up in S1 on their previous run

looking at the sector times Norris would have possibly dropped to P3

https://i.imgur.com/JbwQO9f.jpeg

Not happening, Verstappen was already down at the Sector 2 split before the yellows. He wasn't going to beat Norris 1st run, probably not even his own 1st run. At least not without a monster Sector 3.

Verstappen had a bad turn 19 in the first run, so a improvement in the 3rd sector would have been very likely. He was 1,5 tenth under his own time before he had to back off, so given the gap of only 0,03 to Norris, he would have been well under Norris his first run time.

[morefirejules08]

Am I right in saying if Russell has to revert to old spec parts he’ll start in the pit lane?

[search]

Am I right in saying if Russell has to revert to old spec parts he’ll start in the pit lane?

no, sprint weekend rules are different:

"Exceptionally, at each Competition where a sprint session is scheduled, requests made under 40.3 for replacement parts that are different in design will be considered for approval where the Competitor can demonstrate there is a shortage of parts, and provided that the replacement part is of a specification that has been previously used in a qualifying session or a race."

[Aesop]

The Red Bull definitely kinder to its tyres thus a Max win is a forgone conculsion.

That's the most likely scenario, but we haven't seen anyone run H tyre. The key for tomorrow is pace on H tyre. How many times have we seen a car do well on one compound, and if the next compound is harder or softer, immediately suffers, Tyre deg with the current PIrelli compounds, in this ground effect era, is like quantum mechanics - it's both known and unknown.

The only team/driver who might do a one stop for the race is most likely Ferrari/LeClerc - and that provides a great chance for victory to Ferrari.

Agreed, I'd say Ferrari are favourites for the win.

[fritticaldi]

Ferrari 1-2

[bluechris]

The Red Bull definitely kinder to its tyres thus a Max win is a forgone conculsion.

That's the most likely scenario, but we haven't seen anyone run H tyre. The key for tomorrow is pace on H tyre. How many times have we seen a car do well on one compound, and if the next compound is harder or softer, immediately suffers, Tyre deg with the current PIrelli compounds, in this ground effect era, is like quantum mechanics - it's both known and unknown.

The only team/driver who might do a one stop for the race is most likely Ferrari/LeClerc - and that provides a great chance for victory to Ferrari.

Agreed, I'd say Ferrari are favourites for the win.

Yeah if they don't be consumed in useless interteam battle's.

[Vanja #66]

All of top 5 drivers will aim for a one-stop, Ferrari holds no advantage in that regard. Finishing 3-4 and keeping Piastri behind will be a good result for them. Norris and Max are favourites for the win, that's quite clear

[SirBastianVettel]

All of top 5 drivers will aim for a one-stop, Ferrari holds no advantage in that regard. Finishing 3-4 and keeping Piastri behind will be a good result for them. Norris and Max are favourites for the win, that's quite clear

Overtaking seems very doable here, I doubt they’ll all try one-stopping. If I’d had to guess I’d say Leclerc is most likely to try the one-stop, all others I expect to go for two.

[djones]

Norris will mess up the start, Max will win and then the Ferraris will take Norris throughout the race.

Norris 4th and all our hopes of a close championship at the end of the season shattered.

Hamilton to finish ahead of George.

Colapinto to cause a safety car.

Yuki to finish ahead of Perez.

Possibly.

[Wouter]

Lando was not necessarily under any real threat IMHO. His lap time on the first attempt was seriously good, particularly his S3 time was the best of all, including LEC that had so far had the best time of all others by a margin.

Max and SAI were fast but not fast enough, Max was +0.02 or thereabouts and his best S3 was 0.2 slower than Lando's time. SAI was a bit slower than Max and his S3 was also thereabouts. LEC on the other hand was on his best lap but was also slightly behind SAI.

NOR was going to be on pole even without Mercedes being awful.

Max was two tenths up after S1 on his second run, and made a mistake in turn 19 on his first run. He probably would have been on pole quite comfortably. But Norris did a great first run when it mattered.
I doubt the McLaren is good enough to hold back both Max and the Ferraris though in the race.

.
Fact is though that Max was +0.02 on NOR in his last attempt before the yellows and NOR had a purple S3.

.
HUH?? +0.02 ??? Max was already +0.3 sec quicker in S1!! Sainz was also quicker then Norris.

[search]

Max was two tenths up after S1 on his second run, and made a mistake in turn 19 on his first run. He probably would have been on pole quite comfortably. But Norris did a great first run when it mattered.
I doubt the McLaren is good enough to hold back both Max and the Ferraris though in the race.

.
Fact is though that Max was +0.02 on NOR in his last attempt before the yellows and NOR had a purple S3.

.
HUH?? +0.02 ??? Max was already +0.3 sec quicker in S1!! Sainz was also quicker then Norris.

https://i.imgur.com/C8A7mCg.png

That table includes Norris' irrelevant 2nd attempt. Dialtone's comparison is to his pole lap (24,992 36,887 30,451)

[chrisc90]

1st set of runs

Sector 1
Norris: 24.992
Max: 24.868

Sector 2
Norris:36.887
Max: 36.986

Total times sector 2:
Norris: 1:01.879
Max: 1:01.854

Sector 3
Norris: 30.451
Max: 30.507

Total times sector 3:
Norris: 1:32.331
Max: 1:32.361



2nd Runs

Sector 1
Norris: 25.051
Max: 24.820

Sector 2
Norris:37.058
Max: 37.073

Total times sector 2:
Norris: 1:02.109
Max: 1:01.893

Sector 3
Norris: ---
Max: ---

So conclusion, that Norris was 0.230 behind his 1st run time up until the last meaningful data from the live timing before the yellow flag. Max was 0.039 up on his own lap time from the 1st set of runs after sector 2. Compared to Norris on his 1st run PB time Max was 0.014 behind Lando at the end of the second sector.

That would suggest that Max needed to find 0.039 in the final sector. Given he had a pretty big mistake that was costly on the 1st set of runs. If he matched his final sector, without the mistake, then likely he would have had pole.

End of sector 2 on the final runs for Lando would have meant that he needed a mammoth S3 to improve on his time, which was very unlikely.

Would Max have found 0.039 in the final sector if he nailed it?

[langedweil]

There's no way to predict this race, all I know is it's pretty darn close and top 5 can all win. Throw in VC's or SC's and everything gets messed up even more ..