AR3-GP wrote: ↑28 Oct 2024, 02:02
Paa wrote: ↑28 Oct 2024, 01:35
I agree all of these. I even anticipated something like this for the end of the season around summer time.
What is even more worrying that Red Bull don't give any vibes suggesting that they know what is going on and will be able to come back strong for next season. And then the questionable engine comes into picture for 2026.
At this point there is no sign of positive turnaround at the horizont.
I also think 2025 is going to have issues. 2025 is not a time for fundamental architectural changes. Like we saw from 2020 to 2021, it's only a matter of limited evolution because you need to spend more time on the 2026 cars.
Mclaren and Ferrari are the favorites for 2025. They have a great base car to continue developing. They will evolve their cars like RB18-> RB19. Red Bull's original RB18 concept has been obsoleted. They benefitted from having a car which could be developed to its ceiling the quickest. Mclaren and Ferrari have adapted fundamentally different approaches to generating performance and it took them longer, but their ceiling is higher than that of the original Red Bull concept. They don't rely on infinite stiffness and high speed corners to win a GP. It's a huge effort for Red Bull to change course and they can't afford to do all of that while staying on top of 2026 development.
Ferrari fell off after Monza and now have returned to form. And are now at a peak again. But if you add up all the peaks and valleys for Ferarri and Mercedes, I don't see how Ferrari is ahead. Russell had the pole in Silverstone. With no DNF's or DSQ, that was a Mercedes 1,2 finish 2 races in a row.
Which is to say, over a full season in 2025, there will be a lot of points going around to all 4 big teams.