bananapeel23 wrote: ↑06 Dec 2024, 19:15
Sphere3758 wrote: ↑06 Dec 2024, 18:51
Leclerc should try to keep a fresh set of softs for the race. Unless they think he can get pole, 15 or 20 makes no difference. Give him an engine change, some fresh softs, turn it to max and go for it. Nothing to lose.
Leclerc HAS to slice through the field and HAS to beat both McLarens, there is no room for a safe, calm recovery race that is sure to net good points. P20 or P4 doesn't matter because neither is enough. He needs P1 or P2 and a McLaren can't win, period.
Starting 11th, 15th or 20 makes a massive difference. If you start 11th it's very possible to slice through all of the midfielders and get to the back of the frontrunners on lap 1, that allows you potentially make up places against frontrunners during stint 1, pit into the podium positions, then make overtakes and win. After lap 1 you're limited to perhaps 1 overtake per lap while lapping over a second slower than the leaders and potentially getting stuck in DRS trains. If that happens a win is VERY unlikely without a chaotic safety car or red flag.
Leclerc needs to get as close to P1 as humanly possible in qualifying. If he can save a set of softs in Q1 or Q2 then sure, but getting the best possible result in quali is way more important.
If I were Ferrari I'd break into the HAAS garage and open a sealed engine component just in case they make Q3, so they are forced to take penalties and end up starting behind Leclerc post-penalty.
Let's say LeClerc qualifies in the top5 => he starts anywhere from P11 to P15.
Wouldn't it be better to simply install a fresh ICE, MGU-H, MGU-K etc, take the penalty hit and start P20, with multiple fresh sets of S ? The difference b/w starting P11 and P20 isn't much (maybe 5-6 laps of climbing through the places) since there are two back to back DRS zones. It's the climb from P10 to the podium places that is going to be a challenge since those cars will be faster and speed delta lesser.
All this, assuming they sort out the race pace in FP3. Otherwise it's a pipe dream.