...Red Bull seems a little behind with their design
I wouldn't count on it. Just because Newey decided to cry a little on paper doesn't mean their design is behind. I bet it's just a mind game as always and anyways they had pretty much competitive car in the last part of the season and this years car is almost copy-paste with "esthetic" modifications.
So speaking about this years cars being copy-paste from last year I think the packing order will be pretty much the same. Maybe Ferrari has a little bit more to gain compared to others since their F2012 was a total sucker in the beginning of the year. It can hardly get worse than that.
So I think McLaren fans have nothing to fear. My guess is they will have the best or at least second best car in the beginning of the 2013.