2013 British GP - Silverstone

[Richard]

Ok don't quote me 100% on this as the weather there can be rather unpredictable, apparently we might have a dry weekend. If it rains Wednesday and Thursday then signs point to a mostly dry weekend. If not it will be intermittent and might get in the way of Saturday running, and it might rain sometime during the race. So yeah wet Wed and Thur of that week = mostly dry weekend.

I think I get your point that a weather front usually passes across the country in a couple of days. So if a front dumps rain on the Thurs/Fri, it is likely that the next one won't arrive until the Monday. However, sometimes the fronts just stop and it'll rain all weekend.

Sometimes a block of high pressure gives us several days of stability and sunshine. Yes, several days of sun is considered stable weather.

[Glyn]

Stupid isn't it? Remember Fuji 2008? Massive amount of rain and we let them race and it was fantastic. The problem is they just drive around behind a safety car like pansies so they are going slowly and dont shift any water. I can't remember how much water the tyres can shift but isnt it something ridiculous like 100 litres of water a minute at a certain speed?

60 litres a second - full wets . I think.

[ajdavison2]

As a UK resident who was at silverstone last year I would take any weather info with a pinch of salt. Can be very changeable.

[SilverArrow10]

Wasn't New Jersey meant to be this weekend or next? and that's the reason for the third 3 week break. I could see 21 races next year easily with all the gaps we have had this year. 16 days to go.

[majki2111]

Medium and hard compounds for Silverstone.

[godlameroso]

Beat me to it! I think a two stop strategy will be best, three if you're really aggressive. Make two stops on primes, push like hell then once more on options.

[raymondu999]

I'm not sure the tyres will last for a 2-stop. I'm confident the Lotuses can make an OPP work. But I think the other teams will have to go OOPP or OPPP, based on seeing how Silverstone was in 2012 relative to Barcelona. 2012 Barcelona was mostly OPPP and 2013 Barcelona was mostly OOPPP - ie another option stint. 2012 Silverstone was OPP - one less prime stint than Barcelona. I think the Lotuses CAN (not necessarily WILL) go OPP, but the others need OOOP to make it work. Given that one set of options is already used in going through Q2 - then it would probably be better to go OOPP and have all new tyres (bar your starting set).

So OOPP vs OPP in my book.

[godlameroso]

In Spain turns 3, 4 and 12-13 are the biggest tire killers. Silverstone doesn't have any turns that are that long, Luffield is a close one but it's taken at rather low speeds Club corner maybe puts a good amount of stress on the rear tires. Stowe Copse and the Essess are the most demanding corners for the tires. So I expect for most teams to do at least one stop less than in Spain, and IIRC the hard tire has been made more durable since Spain so maybe a two stop could be in order. In any case I feel you're probably right because although a two stop is possible it's probably too slow of a strategy to pull off. I think an aggressive three or four stopper is in order, Silverstone is not a short lap, it's nearly 1.6 kilometers longer than Canada so it tends to stretch out the herd making getting caught in dirty air or traffic less of an issue.

On the other hand you do lose about 26 seconds in the pits, plus another second or two getting your tires up to temperature. So pitting four times vs two means you have to have a pace that's 55
+- seconds faster than a two stopper, or essentially go a second a lap faster than a two stopper. If the two stopper can maintain a gap of .8 seconds slower per lap the two stopper will be the winner.

The tires would have to be nursed also for the first few laps before being able to attack with them for two stoppers.

[WhiteBlue]

Ok don't quote me 100% on this as the weather there can be rather unpredictable, apparently we might have a dry weekend. If it rains Wednesday and Thursday then signs point to a mostly dry weekend. If not it will be intermittent and might get in the way of Saturday running, and it might rain sometime during the race. So yeah wet Wed and Thur of that week = mostly dry weekend.

I think I get your point that a weather front usually passes across the country in a couple of days. So if a front dumps rain on the Thurs/Fri, it is likely that the next one won't arrive until the Monday. However, sometimes the fronts just stop and it'll rain all weekend.

Sometimes a block of high pressure gives us several days of stability and sunshine. Yes, several days of sun is considered stable weather.

In my experience there are few places on earth where the weather is as unpredictable and fast changing as it is in northern Buckinghamshire. I lived in the area for 5 years and I'm well experienced with those weather pattern. Richard is right that occasionally you get stable conditions, but as a norm the weather changes from sunny to cloudy or even rainy in 30 min intervals and back to sunny. There is very little predictability in it at all for a period so far away in time as the race is now. I think on Thursday before the race you may be able to say more about the weather pattern that you can expect for the race weekend.

I had a look over to Betfair to get an idea how the odds are for winning the race:
Sebastian Vettel 2.6
Fernando Alonso 3.5
Lewis Hamilton 7
Kimi Raikkonen 7
Mark Webber 10
Nico Rosberg 10
I would agree with the bookies and the betting money that Vettel probably is the favourite very closely followed by Alonso. Hamilton is on equal odds with Kimi which I find a bit odd, but I agree that the podium is likely to be
Vettel
Alonso
Hamilton again.

[godlameroso]

I think that Vettel won't have as easy a time here as in Canada, that said, if the weather is stable Alonso has it in the bag unless he has more on track accidents.

[performergr]

For the record, the tyre choices for the next three races are:

Silverstone: Medium & Hard
Germany: Soft & Medium
Hungary: Medium & Hard

@hungary last year: medium & soft

this year medium & hard

[raymondu999]

So I expect for most teams to do at least one stop less than in Spain

Which agrees with what I said, and is not in line with what you previously said.
Spain 2013 = most 4-stoppers, Lotus 3-stopper
minus 1 stop = most 3-stoppers, Lotus 2-stopper

and IIRC the hard tire has been made more durable since Spain so maybe a two stop could be in order.

IIRC - you remember wrongly.

In any case I feel you're probably right because although a two stop is possible it's probably too slow of a strategy to pull off.

Agreed. I have to revise my statement and say that I don't think that (for most) the tyres will last a 2-stop COMPETITIVELY. I'm sure it will LAST - I don't think they'll be fast at the end.

I think an aggressive three or four stopper is in order, Silverstone is not a short lap, it's nearly 1.6 kilometers longer than Canada so it tends to stretch out the herd making getting caught in dirty air or traffic less of an issue.

I think 4 is pushing it. But I can see it being a 3-stop vs 2-stop shootout.

[Racer X]

If theirs no rain I see atleast one team doing 4 stops. To go for killer times and quik laps changing them as soon as they are no longer competitive.

[raymondu999]

If theirs no rain I see atleast one team doing 4 stops. To go for killer times and quik laps changing them as soon as they are no longer competitive.

Like godlameroso said - it's unrealistic. A 4-stop will be quite slow around Silverstone thanks to the long pitlane loss.

[iotar__]

For the record, the tyre choices for the next three races are:

Silverstone: Medium & Hard
Germany: Soft & Medium
Hungary: Medium & Hard

@hungary last year: medium & soft

this year medium & hard

Medium has to be there that's the deal with Red Bull in exchange for stopping black PR . Second tyre is of course more conservative, although for Hungary in 2013 soft-medium could be too much. So if they scratched hard-soft combination the only option left is medium-hard.