Could the RBR dominance slip up next year?

[remydeleeuw]

I came across an interesting article in formula 1 magazine here in holland about red bull.
I've posted it here Link

[Shrieker]

Remember that Vettel/Red bull only came back when they finally managed to sort their exhaust blowing mid 2012. Wİth next year's regulations, it looks like there's no possible way to use exhaust gasses in a useful manner. So yeah, one could say their dominance could take a hit next year as was the case at the beginning of '12. But at the same time it has to be kept in mind that there are an awful lot of things changing for next year which makes accurate predictions nigh on impossible.

[munudeges]

Bah..... There always will be some other aerodynamic direction to go in. There always is. If anything exhaust influenced aerodynamics has given Red Bull's rivals a huge area to try and catch up and probably surpass them. When you take that away the window of opportunity to overtake just gets diminished and then it's all about small details.

[munudeges]

Well, you don't believe in Ferrari for how many years already? Yet it is still in the pack.

You'd have to be pretty brave to put money on Ferrari winning anything next season. I wouldn't even back them to beat Lotus if the Renault engine is up to scratch. Regardless of how Monty and Alonso have made up Alonso clearly agrees with that assessment.

They're already piling pressure on to poor James Allison he just doesn't need, as Williams seem to be doing with Pat Symonds:

http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/109611

Goodness knows what the spare part Pat Fry has been doing, apart from standing on the grid staring at McLarens trying to make himself look like Adrian Newey. What was all that about?

[timbo]

You'd have to be pretty brave to put money on Ferrari winning anything next season. I wouldn't even back them to beat Lotus if the Renault engine is up to scratch. Regardless of how Monty and Alonso have made up Alonso clearly agrees with that assessment.

But why it has to slip in order compared to this year? If their drivetrain is reasonably good it is safe to expect them to be at least where are they now. Whereas there's no guarantee that Lotus will hold it's position, they are simply short on budget and lost Allison.
I guess next year would hold on engines. So far other than rumor on mega-Merc there's no info on where anybody is.

[FoxHound]

You'd have to be pretty brave to put money on Ferrari winning anything next season...........

They're already piling pressure on to poor James Allison he just doesn't need, as Williams seem to be doing with Pat Symonds:

http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/109611

Goodness knows what the spare part Pat Fry has been doing, apart from standing on the grid staring at McLarens trying to make himself look like Adrian Newey. What was all that about?

I'm not so sure why you would be so certain of Ferrari slipping up next year.
If we go by the last 4 years including 2013, Ferrari have occasionally pushed Red Bull hard. In 2014, the rule set seems to put more favour on engines than we currently have.
Aero too, will not be as overly dominant as it is currently.

The exhaust area is cleared up now too. This will hurt Red Bull and Lotus more than any other, and it's not purely based on aero either.
It's no secret that the maps they use allied to their exhaust design is far more effective than anything else out their.
They use less fuel to get the same or even better effect out of their exhaust.
Mercedes and Ferrari cannot hold a candle to Renault in these terms due to the higher consumption of their engines.
Late last year Schumacher said Mercedes where carrying in the region of 15-20kgs more fuel than before to utilise their exhausts. This with a fuel save section to each GP.

So when you take this away, you take a large portion of what makes the Renault powered teams strong. Less fuel mass at the start of a GP will also have a very big effect on tyre usage. And the 2 teams with the best record here are.....Lotus and Red bull.

The law of diminished returns cannot be directly applied here, because of the knock on effect this tech has on the rest of the car. Mass, tyres, downforce, race strategy. Basically if you have a head start, or a frozen advantage(Renault V8) you retain it where others can only apply it in a less usable fashion.

2014 changes that.

1.Single central exhaust pipe exiting 17-18.5cm behind rear axle line and 300-525mm high
2.Front wing reduced front 1800mm to 1650mm wide
3.No lower beam wing
4.No bodywork behind the tail pipe axis
5.Last 150mm of tail pipe must point 5 degrees upwards
6.Top rear wing a little shallower

We know Red Bull's forte is Aero. We also know the above means aero will be reigned in from it's current dominance.
Maybe by 1% but it's not as exploitable as before I think we agree?

This plays into Ferrari's(and Mercedes) hands.

Engines will be openly developed for 2014 and 2015 with some regs on development freezes being introduced in staged processes until a 2018 freeze as we have seen for the last 5 years.
http://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/fia-t ... 18-report/

I agree Red Bull will be well placed on the aero front. But in terms of engines, Ferrari have more firepower in terms of money and integration(Even if Red Bull are a de-facto Renault works team).
If Ferrari drop a clanger, then that is entirely possible. But as things stand we do not know a thing about any of the engines other than what they sound like on test bench.

I wouldn't discount Ferrari, they have the potential to beat anyone.

[xpensive]

...
You'd have to be pretty brave to put money on Ferrari winning anything next season. I wouldn't even back them to beat Lotus if the Renault engine is up to scratch. Regardless of how Monty and Alonso have made up Alonso clearly agrees with that assessment.
...

I respectfully disagree, engine and fuel will be in focus for 2014, where I suspect that Marmorini and Shell will be a magic combo.

There's simply no fuel-partner that I would prefer to Shell, possibly BP, but they don't seem to bother with F1 anymore.

[WhiteBlue]

I don't believe in miracle fuels and not in Ferrari either. I think it will be between Red Bull and Mercedes next year. Red bull will be fast but fragile as is tradition with Newey.

Well, you don't believe in Ferrari for how many years already? Yet it is still in the pack.

Ferrari are good enough for Alonso to wish he were in another car. That says it all.

[xpensive]

Ferrari being the only team with in-house engine-development, priceless me thinks.

[WhiteBlue]

forgetting Merc here?

[turbof1]

And it would be acceptable to assume Renault and Red Bull built the engine together. Well, Red Bull having all kinds of crazy demands and Renault vigorously trying to supply the demand. Can't really come much closer to an in-house development.

[timbo]

Ferrari are good enough for Alonso to wish he were in another car. That says it all.

This says what exactly? That RBR is better? No dispute about that.
Except for Vettel, Alonso is the highest scoring driver in the last two years.

[bigpat]

I see no reason for them to slip.
Newey is a proven performer of mastering regulation changes, to produce competitive cars , and to be honest, I have no reason to believe that the RB10 won't look that different from the previous, proven ones in the 'Newey' family of Red Bulls.

The team has a handle on the design concept, philosophy, and aerodynamic qualities of all the Newey cars through a number of rules changes, so I believe that they can make a well judged estimation of what the 2014 regs will bring. As we have seen the last 3 years, Red Bull haven't had the strongest engine, (Renault is known to have a 'peaky' power curve) and have sacrificed straight line speed for downforce, and have come out on top. Renault not being right up there in terms of grunt won't kill them. It's the integration and efficiency of the all the systems that will be the difference between the power plants.

I don't believe Red Bull have any real advantage over other teams with the coanda exhaust. The exhaust blown diffuser RB 6 & 7, yes, but not since, as everyone has a matured understanding of the coanda concept.

Of all manufacturers I believe Mercedes may have an edge, as they have had the best engine/KERS package for the past few seasons. Remember however, that Renault has always been extremely innovative in engine design, as well as rule interpretations. My hunch is that there may well be a few FIA engine rule clarifications issued next season....

It is given that Renault have been working together with Red Bull on next years engine. Red bull would have known months ago of weight, dimensions, c of g and heat rejection requirements and installation requirements of the engine. Along with Lotus, and Caterham, Red Bull would of course make requests of Renault.

However I believe the design and concept of the engine/ KERS would be a Renault controlled thing. The architecture of the engine would be same across all the supplied teams, with some installation requirements mandated by Renault, but typically inter cooling, oil cooler, radiator layouts, gearbox and control integration systems specific for each team.

[xpensive]

forgetting Merc here?

Perhaps I did, but MHPE/Petronas will never be the same as the Marnaello/Shell combo. Not in this lifetime.

[shelly]

Bah..... There always will be some other aerodynamic direction to go in. There always is. If anything exhaust influenced aerodynamics has given Red Bull's rivals a huge area to try and catch up and probably surpass them. When you take that away the window of opportunity to overtake just gets diminished and then it's all about small details.

I agree wwith that; in fact, I think that as we have seen with the 2009 reg change, putting constraints on aero make better aero teams emerge more