Could the RBR dominance slip up next year?

[bigpat]

I can't see how the Ferrari/Shell tie up is any different from Merc/Petronas, or Renault/Total (Elf).
They all work hand in glove with each other on fuels and lubricants.

Often the commercial benefits drive the amalgamation, then the teams work together. Ferrari was with Agip for many years, and Mercedes with Mobil in their dominant McLaren years.

Ferrari do have a great record in reliability terms, though in the V10, and V8 era, their engines haven't stood out in terms of power or weight, or innovation.

Mercedes changed the game in using aluminium/beryllium components, then Ferrari sulked when they found they couldn't get the same, and lobbied hard to have it banned on 'safety grounds'.....

Then BMW and Honda came in and put them in the shade in terms of power and weight. The genius of Brawn/Byrne, and Schumacher brought Ferrari their golden era.

Since then we have seen Renault use the power of lateral thinking within the rules to great effect, in terms of throttle control and mapping, which dates back to their innovations in the 1991-1999 era.

Neither can I see the fuel/oil companies discovering a magic bullet, with the heavily regulated rules. The process of refinement will continue.

Interesting times ahead, I expect more power train related DNF's in the first half of the year, but after that, no more than usual....

[xpensive]

I can't see how the Ferrari/Shell tie up is any different from Merc/Petronas, or Renault/Total (Elf).
They all work hand in glove with each other on fuels and lubricants.
...

Petronas couldn't wave a stick at Shell research-wise, in F1 because some xecutives enjoy the razmatazz and half-naked ladies.

Funny this idea about the importance lubricants though, friction-wise it's only a mater of viscosity anyway?

[bigpat]

I don't believe the hype. I don't doubt Shell don't have the facilities, but i don't see the others lacking. Mercedes spent many years with Mobil, no small player, and would no doubt have data and expectations of Petronas. There is no lacking of Malaysian state money there.

One of the most impressive companies was Petrobas, who were in the game for a number of years.

As for oil just being about viscosity, there is greater science is lubricants than fuels....

As well as lubrication, oils must cool the engine too. I know some companies may develop 1-2 new blends for engine and gearbox through a season, dependant on track characteristics, or temperatures.

From what I've seen of F1 oil samples, they don't look at all like what is sold on the shelf. A lot of the additives needed for street engines are not required, especially that the oil only does 450 kms before its drained.....

[iotar__]

Red Bull will probably do their part but it depends on two things: engine (unknown, only rumours and past achievements) and competition:
- Mercedes - going steadily forward, still unproven at getting it right over one season or under new rules, manufacturer, engine is rumoured to be an advantage, v. good drivers pair

- McLaren - too often got it wrong rather than right in recent years, not an engine manufacturer, still big team, will have Mercedes and they can't suck forever, transition to Honda will be a problem, solid drivers but not at their prime,

- Ferrari - big manufacturer catching up in modern approach and infrastructure, wind tunnel and development problems, hard to be optimistic if the new car was designed using the same tools as 2013 one, good thing that with Alonso they can afford to be slightly behind, they can't but is sounds good, Allison preferred them to McLaren so maybe there's hope,

- Lotus - v. unlikely dark horse, for podiums rather than wins, not a manufacturer, losing personnel but considering 2009 start, transition and all the upgrades in between it's impressive where they are now, few expected that, innovative, it won't matter - focus on engine and then driver management will ruin it anyway ( I had to say it).

Hopefully interesting season with big margin for improvement, even if someone is in front in the beginning, different teams will be able to catch up or go in front later using different paths, also fuel management and reliability vs performance may play its part.

[PhillipM]

Given the current rate of KERS failure, it'll be interesting next year even if they have half as many...

[Sevach]

Renault have been very competitive focusing on things like fuel consumption, cooling, exhaust flow... rather than pure power.

In 2014 everyone has to think about their fuel consumption very carefully, does this mean advantage Renault? I don't know...

Mercedes has something of a history of not getting it right on the first try, they only came alive when freeze regulations took place.
And Ferrari has been solid but unspetacular for a long time now.

New aero rules mean (more or less) the same starting point for everyone instead of continuous evolution where RBR can play it safe and still be confortably ahead.
The catch is, Mr. Newey is a guy who's been known to set the trends that will be followed for years, done it in 98, 2005 and 2009, a bit of a slip up in 2012 but still champ...

[munudeges]

I respectfully disagree, engine and fuel will be in focus for 2014, where I suspect that Marmorini and Shell will be a magic combo.

There's simply no fuel-partner that I would prefer to Shell, possibly BP, but they don't seem to bother with F1 anymore.

Certainly a valid point-of-view with Shell there, but will they have the chassis? I just can't see it.

[Rikhart]

The privilege with speculating is that you do not have to believe, the sheer understanding that the energy content from the usual Aral gas-pump can vary +/-5%, is quite enough to get an engineer xcited enough to elaborate on the possibilities ahead.

The knowledge that Alonso is there is another one, a man of magics if you ask me, kinda Prostish really, other drivers makes mistakes, this guy don't.

Magic and prost-ish, he just needs to actually start winning.

[SectorOne]

I'm not so certain about this, if you consider Shell's vast lab resources to Petronas', where the former can literally pick together their juice molecule per molecule, paired with a fired-up Alonso and a James Allison in the pits, I wouldn't be surprised to see a red rocket next year.

But it will still have the aerodynamics of a brick wall
That´s their main problem now since 09.

I think people overestimate the shell bit with fuel and oil. The difference is negligible as Alonso did a test at Fiorano with F1 fuel and regular fuel from the gas station, i believe it was less then a tenth in difference.

[Hovepeter]

I'm not so certain about this, if you consider Shell's vast lab resources to Petronas', where the former can literally pick together their juice molecule per molecule, paired with a fired-up Alonso and a James Allison in the pits, I wouldn't be surprised to see a red rocket next year.

But it will still have the aerodynamics of a brick wall
That´s their main problem now since 09.

I think people overestimate the shell bit with fuel and oil. The difference is negligible as Alonso did a test at Fiorano with F1 fuel and regular fuel from the gas station, i believe it was less then a tenth in difference.

Why dont you guys Think that Ferrari haven't a good aero car? At monza they came 2. Place without having thermoplastic floor like redbull. They might get close to even in aero at the start point next year, when redbull can't use this technology and none of them can use the coanda?
I think it's gonna be a fantastic season next year, with a big pack of cars there are fighting for the championship

[marcush.]

there is the intention to put more emphasis on powertrain relevance to lap time so i guess the influence of having found the holy grail in powertrain layout might be a significant advantage next year .
I think one more is to consider here: it´s really everything new and on a level of being complicated on a similar level to the active suspension times in the 90s.
I certainly would not bet on all manufacturers getting it right and totally reliable for 2013 -so you need to find speed and reliabilty from all new machinery...and absolutely nothing of it is in Neweys hands -apart from the bit he will wring Renaults neck no end to get his aero as uncompromised as possible...

4 years of dominance seems to be enough anyways.My guess is Sauber will not win a fifth title in a row.the new regs are not really helping aero thinkers ....no?

[SectorOne]

Why dont you guys Think that Ferrari haven't a good aero car? At monza they came 2.

Exactly, one of the places where aero is playing the smallest factor.
Look at Hungary, or better yet, Singapore. That will show if they really have gotten to the bottom of their aero problems.
Don´t forget they are still not sure about what exhaust bodykit to run. Absolutely clueless it seems.

Red Bull knows and they have a base package, then build upon that through the small details.
That tells you a car as very very good aerodynamically. (Apart from the obvious fact that it can take corners faster then a Ferrari)

Ferrari´s packages can almost be labelled A and B spec. You saw that in 2012 with RBR but they locked it down and now you don´t see three different engine covers/exhaust setups.

[pob]

My guess is Sauber will not win a fifth title in a row.

I think everyone would be surprised if Sauber won five titles in a row

[marcush.]

My guess is Sauber will not win a fifth title in a row.

I think everyone would be surprised if Sauber won five titles in a row

oops ..

[gandharva]

Hey guys!

Do you think the redbull cars would as dominant next year, as they have been the past years?

I have heard that the most of their pace is coming from their coanda exhaust, which will be nearly impossible to use next year. At the same time the aerodynamics, isn't the only thing you can get your pace on next year, but also the engine and the ERS system, wich will probably mean that the Ferrari and the mercedes car I gonna have an advantage on the engine front.

What do you guys think? Would we see a much more equal race next year?

If Renault is able to deliver, and looking at the costs of their 2014 powertrain it's very likely that they will, RBR will again be one of the teams, or possibly the team, to beat. I think Newey will do an amazing job at packaging again, looking at the fact that he's working hand in hand with the Renault guys. Well, it could be that the RB10 will be unreliable at the beginning or even during the whole season, but I would be surprised if RB10 won't be quick.