Could the RBR dominance slip up next year?

[henra]

I think Newey will do an amazing job at packaging again, looking at the fact that he's working hand in hand with the Renault guys. Well, it could be that the RB10 will be unreliable at the beginning or even during the whole season, but I would be surprised if RB10 won't be quick.

I fully agree!
People claiming that aerodynamics won't be so much of a differentiator IMHO grossly underestimate the design challenges the new Regulations bring along.
Newey's core trick has been packaging, at least in the RB era. And packaging will probably be the differentiator next year. There is lots of additional or bigger crap which has to be stuffed under as tiny a coat as possible...
And the less aerodynamic helpers (e.g. Beam wing, huge rear wings) are allowed the more important is a sound basic design.

From a powertrain perspective I expect the big manufaturers to be actually quite close in capability. Looking at their Road Vehicle developments I could only imgaine Ferrari to be at a slight disadvantage since the topic of Energy Recovery or Hybrid hasn't been particularly high on their agenda and won't be for the near future.
WRT Renault I expect them to be on par with Merc. The Characteristics may differ in detail, but the overall performance will be on a comparable level. After almost 120 years of IC Engine development there are no miracles just meticulous detail improvements. A slightly bigger variation in performance can be expected from the energy recovery systems. But even there a certain maturity has obviously been achieved.
I wouldn't hang my hopes too high that the 2014 Regulation change will shift the balance between the Teams dramatically.

[bigpat]

From I hear, Ferrari are having big troubles meeting fuel consumption targets on the 2014 engine. As for Shell being Ferrari's guru fuel supplier, as their $35 million sponsorship contract with Ferrari expires in 2015. If they don't renew, I doubt you'll see Ferrari chasing after them for their 'technical excellence'.....

As for aerodynamics, they have struggled in the Alonso era, and may take them a season to get back on track. When a car is good aerodynamically, the shape doesn't change much year to year. Look at the Rory Byrne Ferrari's, and the Adrian Newey Williams, Mc Laren's and Red Bulls as proof. Recently, Ferrari, McLaren and Mercedes all change their mechanical, and aero layout year on year, with no continuity of philosophy...

Out of the manufacturers, Renault are known to be the innovative ones. Look now at the suspected use of KERS harvesting by RBR for 'traction enhancement'. As it stands, it doesn't breach the rules....These guys are so 'on the ball' with mapping and lateral thinking, that its to be admired. Adrian Newey was noticeably cagey when asked about it, so you suspect that where there is smoke, there is fire.....

Mercedes were leaders in packaging, materials development and power in the Ilmor Engineering era, particularly 98-2003. Agreed under the current frozen rules, they re the gun package, and maybe so again in a couple of seasons.

One thing I am adamant of is that aerodynamics will still be king in F1.,
Its just that the power trains are of more importance now, and require development in packaging and heat rejection, which is where I think we will see development concentrate. And they get the headlines.

I honestly can't see the RB10 looking very different from the other Newey cars. The tight packaging of cars was also a hallmark in his McLaren days.

Personally I can't wait for Honda. They are back in their best position, as an engine supplier only. In their known fashion, they will be solid, but conservative an low key while they gather data and fine tune their package in 2015, then we'll see the real deal in 2016.

[tuj]

Well let's think about a couple of different regulation changes, in 2009 Brawn dominated the start of the season with their DDD. The Brawn as I understand it was basically Super Aguri's design for the '09 season and Honda could have had that car had they not sold to Brawn and bailed out on racing.

The real question to me was always, why was Merc so slow in 2010? After all they had the Brawn, right? Well the rules banned the DDD and Merc had no other secrets to rely on. Meanwhile RBR has spent 2009 perfecting the DDD and then modifying it to become the EBD in 2010, 11, 12.

Or consider that in the 91 seasons, Williams invented TC. Williams came in 2nd that year.

So my thinking is that one of the mid-pack teams with an engine supplier has been thinking about these 2014 regulations for a while...The other thought is that Merc has been thinking about 2014 ever since they bought Brawn, knowing the DDD wouldn't carry the day but maybe the powerplant technology in 2014 would. And when you look at the evidence that Hamilton moved over, makes you think that might be true. That said, look at how poor the McLaren has performed this year; makes you wonder if they sacrificed 2013 for a 2014 development year? But if so, how much sense does Honda coming back in 2015 make?

No, I think my money is on Merc dominating the first few races. I think 2014 is going to be more about driving to a prescribed pace than pure speed (which sucks!) so the best powerplant on fuel consumption is going to have a big advantage.

[Joie de vivre]

imo they won't be as near dominant as they are now. why? well look at start of 2012 when they banned ebd. they were nowhere near the first place after they copied sauber's exhaust. next year we will see central exhaust so no more blowing gases onto dif, no beamwing ... overall looking cars will have less aerodinamycal grip and they'll have to rely more on mechanical grip. same thing happened to mercedes, after double dif was banned they didn't have any more secrets to show plus they were very slow copying other's (f-duct and shark fin ...).

[WhiteBlue]

I would not bet against Newey performance wise. He traditionally is very strong with a new formula. Their downfall could be reliability which he is not very good with. I think that next year could be Merc's year, but I can easily be wrong.

[henra]

I would not bet against Newey performance wise. He traditionally is very strong with a new formula.

I strongly tend to Agree.
Especially since the energy to be used during the race will be significantly reduced, aerodynamic efficiency will become even more important.
Better L/D and max DF with reduced aerodynmic devices will trump everything else - more so than ever.
i don't expect huge differences in engine performance. A 1,6l Turbo engine with ~600HP is not exactly rocket science by today's standards and efficiency optimisation of IC engines neither.

If you really wanted to reduce the effect of aerodynamics you would have to increase engine power and tyre size and reduce the geometric dimensional limits of the wings.

[ScottB]

It's hard to say, I definitely think it's a team effort at RBR, despite Newey's unquestioned brilliance. But he was at RBR for a good few years before their current dominance kicked in. He didn't see the Double Diffuser coming for example at the last big regs change, though they did obviously respond pretty well that year, nailed the current exhaust concept and haven't looked back.

I suppose it depends on what is the source of their current advantage, if it is to do with their use of the exhaust and engine mapping then they could maybe have the most to lose going into next year?

I reckon they might not be the best team at launch, but will come back strongly, rather like this year. But I suppose a lot depends on when Prodromou and whoever else start getting taken off front line efforts and how that effects the team dynamic.

[ringo]

I would not bet against Newey performance wise. He traditionally is very strong with a new formula. Their downfall could be reliability which he is not very good with. I think that next year could be Merc's year, but I can easily be wrong.

With today's testing technologies, i don't think that is a weakness of the current era. There's just too much information processing today for that.

[wesley123]

They now have some extra time for 2014 with securing both titles today, this will be an good advantage to them.

[Pierce89]

They now have some extra time for 2014 with securing both titles today, this will be an good advantage to them.

You do realize everyone else is focused on 2014 too, right?

[tok-tokkie]

Sorting out the energy flow between MGUH, MGUK, Compressor, Turbine, Battery, Capacitor, Throttle opening, Fuel flow rate & engine speed is going to be the key to next season I expect. The ECU is standardized and I don't understand how much freedom that gives the teams in adjusting that energy flow to do things like traction control and anti-lock braking effects. I expect there to be significant differences in the approach the teams adopt and much speculation of what the successful ones are doing.
It seems Red Bull have been doing better at KERS this year than others but they have also had mechanical problems on those systems as a consequence.
Technically next year is going to be really challenging & interesting.

[Lycoming]

One thing I am adamant of is that aerodynamics will still be king in F1 ...

There's little question of that. Unless average speeds drop below 60 km/h or they get rid of the minimum weight rule, Aerodynamics will always be the primary performance differentiator.

[bigpat]

Well let's think about a couple of different regulation changes, in 2009 Brawn dominated the start of the season with their DDD. The Brawn as I understand it was basically Super Aguri's design for the '09 season and Honda could have had that car had they not sold to Brawn and bailed out on racing.

The real question to me was always, why was Merc so slow in 2010? After all they had the Brawn, right? Well the rules banned the DDD and Merc had no other secrets to rely on. Meanwhile RBR has spent 2009 perfecting the DDD and then modifying it to become the EBD in 2010, 11, 12.

Or consider that in the 91 seasons, Williams invented TC. Williams came in 2nd that year.

So my thinking is that one of the mid-pack teams with an engine supplier has been thinking about these 2014 regulations for a while...The other thought is that Merc has been thinking about 2014 ever since they bought Brawn, knowing the DDD wouldn't carry the day but maybe the powerplant technology in 2014 would. And when you look at the evidence that Hamilton moved over, makes you think that might be true. That said, look at how poor the McLaren has performed this year; makes you wonder if they sacrificed 2013 for a 2014 development year? But if so, how much sense does Honda coming back in 2015 make?

No, I think my money is on Merc dominating the first few races. I think 2014 is going to be more about driving to a prescribed pace than pure speed (which sucks!) so the best powerplant on fuel consumption is going to have a big advantage.

The 2009 Brawn was meant to be that years Honda, not Super Aguri...... As soon as Ross Brawn saw that the 2008 car was a lemon, he effectively stopped all development, and turned his attention to the 2009 car.Unfortunately Honda lost their nerve after putting all the pieces in place .As it was Honda actually funded a fair chunk of the Merc engine deal for Brawn that season.

Why were Merc slow in 2010? Because of the limited budget in '09, Brawn had to let go of a lot of employees, which would have topped 600 in the Honda days, and drastically scale back the R&D, using the money to go racing. Come 2010, and people had to be re-hired, and program's brought back online, at least 6-8 months behind other leading teams. I believe that its taken until this year for Merc to be back on par, just as McLaren have lost their way....

As for next year, someone may find a loophole somewhere, but I believe the Red Bull chassis will be the one to have. I believe the rest is up to which manufacturer produces the best engine package..

[ScottB]

Well let's think about a couple of different regulation changes, in 2009 Brawn dominated the start of the season with their DDD. The Brawn as I understand it was basically Super Aguri's design for the '09 season and Honda could have had that car had they not sold to Brawn and bailed out on racing.

The real question to me was always, why was Merc so slow in 2010? After all they had the Brawn, right? Well the rules banned the DDD and Merc had no other secrets to rely on. Meanwhile RBR has spent 2009 perfecting the DDD and then modifying it to become the EBD in 2010, 11, 12.

Or consider that in the 91 seasons, Williams invented TC. Williams came in 2nd that year.

So my thinking is that one of the mid-pack teams with an engine supplier has been thinking about these 2014 regulations for a while...The other thought is that Merc has been thinking about 2014 ever since they bought Brawn, knowing the DDD wouldn't carry the day but maybe the powerplant technology in 2014 would. And when you look at the evidence that Hamilton moved over, makes you think that might be true. That said, look at how poor the McLaren has performed this year; makes you wonder if they sacrificed 2013 for a 2014 development year? But if so, how much sense does Honda coming back in 2015 make?

No, I think my money is on Merc dominating the first few races. I think 2014 is going to be more about driving to a prescribed pace than pure speed (which sucks!) so the best powerplant on fuel consumption is going to have a big advantage.

The 2009 Brawn was meant to be that years Honda, not Super Aguri...... As soon as Ross Brawn saw that the 2008 car was a lemon, he effectively stopped all development, and turned his attention to the 2009 car.Unfortunately Honda lost their nerve after putting all the pieces in place .As it was Honda actually funded a fair chunk of the Merc engine deal for Brawn that season.

Why were Merc slow in 2010? Because of the limited budget in '09, Brawn had to let go of a lot of employees, which would have topped 600 in the Honda days, and drastically scale back the R&D, using the money to go racing. Come 2010, and people had to be re-hired, and program's brought back online, at least 6-8 months behind other leading teams. I believe that its taken until this year for Merc to be back on par, just as McLaren have lost their way....

As for next year, someone may find a loophole somewhere, but I believe the Red Bull chassis will be the one to have. I believe the rest is up to which manufacturer produces the best engine package..

I thought the Double Diffuser did indeed come from Super Aguri originally?

[FoxHound]

Super Aguri was defunct heading into 2009.
They where effectively a Honda b-team. The idea was alleged to have originated from a super aguri engineer and passed on to Honda which later became Brawn.