Actually, Red Bull have an excellent chance of success in their appeal. Forgive me for the long explanation, but some detail is required.
Why were Ricciardo and Red Bull excluded from the race? The steward’s decision says:-
Breach of article 3.2 of the FIA Formula 1 sporting regulations and Article 5.1.4 of the FIA Formula 1 technical regulations
It’s important to read that carefully. If those articles weren’t breached, the decision will be overturned.
Article 3.2 of the sporting regulations provides that:-
Competitors must ensure that their cars comply with the conditions of eligibility and safety throughout practice and the race
In truth, this adds little to the alleged breach of Article 5.1.4 of the technical regulations, which says:-
Fuel mass flow must not exceed 100kg/h.
This is the critical issue. Note that this article of the technical regulation says nothing about how fuel mass flow is measured.
The sensors are referred to in articles 5.10.3 and 5.10.4 of the technical regulations:-
5.10.3 Homologated sensors must be fitted which directly measure the pressure, the temperature and the flow of the fuel supplied to the injectors, these signals must be supplied to the FIA data logger.
5.10.4 Only one homologated FIA fuel flow sensor may be fitted to the car which must be placed wholly within the fuel tank.
Red Bull complied with these articles. The FIA fuel flow sensor was fitted to the car. Now, what articles 5.10.3 and 5.10.4 do not say is that the homologated FIA fuel flow sensor is to be the sole determinant of compliance with article 5.1.4. That might sound like a fine distinction, but it is an important one. The approved sensor was fitted to Ricciardo’s car, but Red Bull ignored the readings it was giving to determine their compliance with article 5.1.4. That is why the steward’s decision is not founded on a breach of article 5.10.3 or 5.10.4.
On 1 March 2014, a technical directive [01614] was issued in relation to the fuel flow sensors, which relevantly provided that “the homologated fuel flow sensor will be the primary measurement of the fuel flow and will be used to check compliance with articles 5.1.4 and 5.1.5 of the F1 technical regulations”.
Now, my understanding is that technical directives do not have the force of technical regulations. They simply set out what the technical representative [Charlie Whiting] considers to be his interpretation of the technical regulations. Comply with the technical directive, and the stewards and technical representative will be satisfied that you are compliant with the technical regulation/s to which the directive relates. However, you can’t be excluded for a breach of a technical directive, which is why the basis for exclusion of Ricciardo’s car does not refer to a breach of the technical directive (although the steward’s underlying reasons do refer to it) but rather a breach of the technical regulations.
The fact that Red Bull ignored advice from Whiting during the race to reduce the fuel flow to a rate which brought it within the 100kg/hr measure, as determined by the FIA fuel flow sensor, is ultimately irrelevant (even though many say this “proves” Red Bull broke the rules). There is nothing in the technical or sporting regulations which requires Red Bull to comply with such a direction made during the course of a race.
Put simply, Red Bull have to comply with article 5.1.4 of the technical regulations, no more no less (the alleged breach of article 3.2 of the sporting regulations flows from any breach of article 5.1.4 of the technical regulations, and will rise or fall on the fuel flow issue).
If Red Bull can establish by convincing evidence that, irrespective of what the sensor showed, at no stage during the race did fuel flow mass exceed 100 kg/hr, then they should win the appeal.
And I can only assume that Red Bull have a very good chance of proving that. As Gary Anderson said in a recent article:-
Red Bull, and I believe a few other teams in the pitlane, were struggling to get the FIA-supplied fuel-flow meter to match the very sophisticated onboard electronics that control the amount of fuel that’s fed through the injectors.
Years and years of research has gone into injector control for all forms of engines, and this has made a significant impact on improving the fuel economy for both racing and road-car engines.
I would have to say that using this as the fuel-flow and fuel-limit control would make more sense as huge resources have been put into its development over many years.
If Red Bull can show from their injector data, to the satisfaction of the International Court of Appeal, that they complied with article 5.1.4 of the technical regulations, the FIA is at real risk of ending up with egg on their faces.