2014/15 Silly Season

[Richard]

Yeah, why rely on facts (i.e. stats) when you can just make an argument based on conjecture and zero evidence

That's the case for most driver comparisons, completely pointless with or without selective statistics.

[Aesto]

Yeah, why rely on facts (i.e. stats) when you can just make an argument based on conjecture and zero evidence

That's the case for most driver comparisons, completely pointless with or without selective statistics.

Comparisons between drivers are notoriously difficult, but necessary for teams to decide who they want to hire. Evaluation based on data tends to be more objective. It's ridiculously easy to come up with an argument for pretty much any side of pretty much any discussion. Finding evidence to support it is harder, but makes it more convincing. Quantitative evidence is even harder to come by, but even more reliable.

F1 is a data-driven sport. Engineers love data. And since they most likely don't have access to telemetry data from rival teams, they will need to rely on result-based statistics. They probably have more available to them than we do, but ultimately I expect them to mostly rely on the same stuff.

Yes, obviously it's possible to refine this data, filter out outliers, apply some weights to account for this and that, but ultimately the figures I quoted are going to be the source for such an analysis.

[multisync]

my understanding from the factory is that they are hoping that slim is looking to up his stake so perez is staying. Hulk isn't quite cutting the mustard atm so is not looking secure.

[Richard]

I see the BBC are running the Button and WEC story, so the sources yet be reasonably well placed. They quote his manager as saying Button has to keep his options open. They also infer that it might be a ploy to force McLaren to put up or shut up. http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/29660644

[adrianjordan]

I see the BBC are running the Button and WEC story, so the sources yet be reasonably well placed. They quote his manager as saying Button has to keep his options open. They also infer that it might be a ploy to force McLaren to put up or shut up. http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/29660644

Who else thinks that would be a good move for JB?

I mean he's not realistically likely to win another WDC in F1 (not unless Alonso doesn't sign for McLaren and then next year's car is the absolute class of the field) whereas he is a prime candidate to do well in WEC and could compete there for years to come.

And let's be honest, the chance to add a Le Mans victory to his Monaco victory and F1 WDC probably holds some draw. Plus more time off to indulge in his love for Triathalons.

[mikeerfol]

Imagine a trio of Webber-Button-Alonso in a few years time...

[noel]

i could get behind a jb-fernando mclaren. honda will need all the experience to rebuild. if they can catch up with merc next year, then all the better. would be great to see my three favourites wheel-to-wheel. that's just me.

btw, anyone else heard the rumour about boullier bringing the first-lap nutcase over?

[acosmichippo]

Yeah, why rely on facts (i.e. stats) when you can just make an argument based on conjecture and zero evidence

That's the case for most driver comparisons, completely pointless with or without selective statistics.

Comparisons between drivers are notoriously difficult, but necessary for teams to decide who they want to hire. Evaluation based on data tends to be more objective. It's ridiculously easy to come up with an argument for pretty much any side of pretty much any discussion. Finding evidence to support it is harder, but makes it more convincing. Quantitative evidence is even harder to come by, but even more reliable.

F1 is a data-driven sport. Engineers love data. And since they most likely don't have access to telemetry data from rival teams, they will need to rely on result-based statistics. They probably have more available to them than we do, but ultimately I expect them to mostly rely on the same stuff.

Yes, obviously it's possible to refine this data, filter out outliers, apply some weights to account for this and that, but ultimately the figures I quoted are going to be the source for such an analysis.

I agree with you that overall Hulk is probably a better driver than Perez, despite the results over the last few races. The problem is I think FI have a much higher performance standard for Hulk since he isn't bringing tons of cash like Perez. So while he has scored many more points, FI was probably expecting even more. Otherwise they might as well just get another pay driver. At least that's the impression I get.

[zeph]

There has to be a reason why all top teams are passing on Hulkenberg.

He sure was more consistent than Perez in the first half of the season, but Perez had a quite a bit of bad luck, too.

The second half of the season Perez has scored 18 to Hulkenberg's 7. Perez has scored in every race (5x) since Hungary, Hulk only in 3 and of those he finished ahead of Checo only in Japan.

This is speculation on my part, but maybe they feel that Hulkenberg has already reached his zenith, whereas a guy like Perez is fast but flawed, but perhaps they feel there is more untapped potential?

Surely, sponsorship money is an important factor, but if Hulkenberg really was the next Alonso, those obstacles tend to be taken care of.

Mind you, I'm not saying Perez is better than Hulkenberg or vice versa, just trying to understand why he is passed over all the time.

[turbof1]

There's a rather simple reason: he's tall and naturally comes with a weight penalty.

[SectorOne]

Force India F1 waits on Ferrari move

Force India is waiting on Ferrari to finalise its driver line-up before it can confirm Nico Hulkenberg for 2015.

http://www.crash.net/f1/news/209853/1/f ... mpaign=rss

[acosmichippo]

There has to be a reason why all top teams are passing on Hulkenberg.

He sure was more consistent than Perez in the first half of the season, but Perez had a quite a bit of bad luck, too.

The second half of the season Perez has scored 18 to Hulkenberg's 7. Perez has scored in every race (5x) since Hungary, Hulk only in 3 and of those he finished ahead of Checo only in Japan.

This is speculation on my part, but maybe they feel that Hulkenberg has already reached his zenith, whereas a guy like Perez is fast but flawed, but perhaps they feel there is more untapped potential?

Surely, sponsorship money is an important factor, but if Hulkenberg really was the next Alonso, those obstacles tend to be taken care of.

Mind you, I'm not saying Perez is better than Hulkenberg or vice versa, just trying to understand why he is passed over all the time.

How many top teams have really "passed" on Hulkenberg, though?

• Red Bull are clearly committed to their young driver program, so they don't really count.
• You could count McLaren with their having tried Perez and Magnussen, but Perez had money, and Magnussen was in their driver program.
• Ferrari have had Alonso, Massa, and Kimi. Next year maybe Vettel. All clearly better than Hulk except MAYBE Massa.
• Merc have had Schumi, Rosberg, and Hamilton. All better.
• Williams up until this year haven't really even been a team Hulk would consider an upgrade from Force India or Sauber. But even now Massa and Bottas are at least as good as Hulk.
• Lotus, maybe. But they also had Kimi, Maldonado has a ton of cash, and Grosejan has sponsor connections.

So there are three issues impacting Hulk, I think:
1) there are still a LOT of experienced older drivers in the top teams
2) He hasn't been in a driver program like Red Bull's or McLaren's
3) He doesn't bring much sponsorship

[MercedesAMGSpy]

Hulkenberg isn't doing enough to justify a step forward. It's not bad at all, but you have to impress the top teams every race and he isn't doing that.

[zeph]

That is my impression as well.

[marcush.]

Wasn´t it Hulk who decided against joining Lotus when a place became available last year ? with hindsight it was a very good move indeed .He beat every Teammate bar Barrichello in his Debut season at Williams fair and square.
Now he is facing a bit of opposition with perez but only in the second half of the season ...and I have my doubts if checco will be able to score as many points as Hulk come season finals.
Perez has had good weekends with Sauber as well and he improved at Mclaren in the second half of the season ...but it´s the consistency to bring results which is the plus for Hulk .FI has no winning car ..by far.