kooleracer wrote:I have seen the times that Lewis and Vettel did. Lewis should have won the race. The time he lost during traffic after the safety was crucial. Also using the medium in Q1 was a mistake. Mercedes was pushing the tires harder because they had to close the gap. Thats why it looks like Mercedes had tire issues. But in these extreme conditions pushing the tires over the edge just led to thermal degradation (Mercedes was fastest in the corners which means higher stress and higher wear). But because Ferrari made up a lot of time during the 2 straight Mercedes was closing only a few tenths per lap. China will be interesting almost a copy of Sepang. Only the weather is completely different. If Mercedes still have tires issues I will be very surprised.
Good points Kooleracer.
Since the race, I've thought hard about why Mercedes pitted during the safety car. I was quite surprised when they did, because pitting under the safety car always has some risk involved. For one, it puts you into traffic relative to the cars that stay out (Vettel & Co.) and you also run the risk that you may need longer in the pits because you have to wait while other cars are coming into the pits (though not sure to what degree this is a factor for Mercedes and where their box is relative to the others; if it's at the end of the pit lane, it's not a problem if they're the first to go in, as they'll be the first out).
Anyway - the conclusion at which I arrive is
tyre wear. Mercedes seriously had doubts over how long the option tyres will last on their car in that heat, especially on a car that is practically fully fueled and at its heaviest. So, pitting on lap 5, getting rid of the tyre that they probably expected not to last very long and going onto the more durable prime tyre probably sounded like a good deal, especially considering you get a free pitstop (but puts you into traffic). As someone else mentioned; Ferrari then threw a curveball when Sebastian ended up putting in one fast lap after the other and practically had no degredation. He made the best of it - he never got held up in traffic, could run in clean air, while Lewis & Rosberg lost valuable time fighting through the pack. At some point, it was about +11 seconds relative to what Hamilton lost to Vettel. The other thing is; because the Mercedes stopped on lap 4/5, they had 51 laps to split between their one more stop (if the plan was to 2 stop).
Lets look at the pit chart:
Vettel: pitted on 17 and 37 (o17 / o20 / p19)
Hamilton: pitted on 4, 24, 38 (o4 / p20 / o14 / p18)
Rosberg: pitted on 4, 26, 41 (o4 / p22 / p15 / o15)
So, I still conclude, those 17 laps on the first stint (although a few under the safety-car) were immense by Vettel and Ferrari. Hamilton 3rd stint on option tyres on a much lighter car wasn't comparable, he only managed 14 laps until he got on the radio to say that his rears were going off and his times started to crumble. Which is why I can relate to the thinking behind Mercedes strategy to pit them on lap 4. I guess they didn't believe their car would hold out much longer, perhaps be able to stretch the first stint to lap 10 or 12, but no where near 17 with Vettel in their rear-mirrors. In fact, I think had they stayed out on lap 4 under the safety car, I think Vettel perhaps would have past Hamilton, at the latest when his time would start to crumbe. And the straights are long in Malaysia and the corners before them are not DF heavy corners.
So, Vettel on a OOP strategy would probably still have edged Hamilton on a OPP strategy (assuming they'd both 2 stop and Mercedes would run the P tyre as their prefered tyre). But putting Hamilton on a OPO strategy? Nope - I don't think he would have made it to the end, the Mercedes was too hard on the option tyre. So... to sum up Hamiltons thoughts on lap 38 when he radioed his team that they put him on the wrong tyre....... I'm not sure if he would have made it to the end, although Rosberg arguably had quite good pace, but only had 3 laps less to do (he pitted later than Hamilton). I also think that Rosberg had a bit better tyre wear in Malaysia.
Anyway, to the race; I think it's brilliant that Vettel won. I don't particularly like him nor his celebration antics, but it's good for F1 and exactly what it needed. And the pace of that Ferrari is eye-opening, even if the race unfolded perfectly for them in this case. I think come China, or at the latest after China, we will probably see business as usual with Mercedes 1 & 2 and sadly, I think the Ferrari/Malaysia anomaly might be quickly forgotten and Redbull will be right back with their criticism towards the domination of Mercedes. Unless they still get beaten by Torro-Rosso, which of course they can't allow. But fair play, they did have serious issues on their cars in Malaysia.