MOWOG wrote:The pit stop delta at Sepang is about 23 seconds.
True, but that's not the delta Mercedes lost. Remember, their first pit-stop was effectively "free" and neutralized by it being under the safety car. The only thing that did cost them time, roughly ~11 seconds, was the fact that they ended up in traffic and couldn't run at their pace. So the time they lost through that "3rd pitstop" isn't 23 seconds, it's ~11.
If they hadn't pitted under the safety car, they might have had to come in on lap 12 or so (my humble guess) and then could have run two prime stints which would have enabled them to do that 2 stopper. But pitting on lap 12 would have perhaps equally put them into a bit of traffic and at a disadvantage relative to Seb, due to his better tyre wear being able to do OOP instead of OPP. I think the gap would have been quite small by the end of the race, but I still think Seb would have got it, thanks to better pace on the quicker tyre with less deg vs. Mercedes on the prime.