2015 Austrian Grand Prix - 19-21 June

[SiLo]

From memory (and just rewatched qualifying highlights to confirm) Hamilton was about 4 tenths up after Sector 2 on his first lap over Bottas, who ended up just 8 hundredths behind Massa in the end, before running wide at the last corner. Rosberg went faster in sector 3, so one can assume an optimal Merc would possibly have gone 5 tenths faster. Rosberg really wasn't in the zone.

If you then take into consideration that this year's car has a better engine and by now a better car, they could easily be well into the 1:07 bracket, as last year the pole time could have been a 1:08.2 using my logic above.

My prediction is a 1:07.6

Hmm, might need to rethink then if that's the case.

You are right though, in terms of pace, the pole lap last year wasn't actually massively fast, it's just that the people that could easily have beaten it didn't turn up and do so.

[mrluke]

I think realistically its going to be low 1:08s last year Hamilton and Rosberg often took slightly different Aero setups for Qualifying so you cant just add the best sector times together.

[Vasconia]

What's the record here? Schumacher from some Q2 session, right?

edit. found it. 2003 q1 1.07,9
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Fir5WlcRLA

Talk about track limits

That was a great lap.

I dont see the Williams achieving the pole this year, probably a very inspired Sebastian if Ferrari improves a little bit.

[Juzh]

Full auto implies fully self selecting up and down the gear box, i don't recall those ever coming back?

Or are you talking about the auto-up shift that was briefly allowed along with launch control etc?

Auto downshift was also allowed for some time in that period. Not sure exactly why that was the case.

[Just_a_fan]

Full auto was banned in 2004 which suggests it was allowed, or at least not controlled, in the period immediately before then.

[PlatinumZealot]

What are the thoughts on the expected turn out this year?

Red Bull is in a shambles so possible less of a crowd... but could there be large contingency of Austrian fans who support the Austrian leadership at Mercedes?

[f1316]

What's the record here? Schumacher from some Q2 session, right?

edit. found it. 2003 q1 1.07,9
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Fir5WlcRLA

Talk about track limits

That was a great lap.

I dont see the Williams achieving the pole this year, probably a very inspired Sebastian if Ferrari improves a little bit.

Kimi was .6 off the pace in Canada and only.2 from rosberg; will be interested to see the gap to Seb here, given it's an even shorter lap.

I'd think it very unlikely he'll get pole but close enough to capitalise if either has a minor setup or rhythm issue (as nico had in a few races this year and Lewis last year)

[GPR-A duplicate2]

Kimi was .6 off the pace in Canada and only.2 from rosberg; will be interested to see the gap to Seb here, given it's an even shorter lap.

I'd think it very unlikely he'll get pole but close enough to capitalise if either has a minor setup or rhythm issue (as nico had in a few races this year and Lewis last year)

You seriously think that was representative? Both Lewis and Nico didn't improve in the final lap of Canadian qualifying on fresh sets, whereas Kimi did improved by slightly over a tenth on his final run. Not sure what happened to Nico (there was a piece of news about "bad tires), but Lewis locked up at the turn 2 on final flier.

[FoxHound]

I dont see the Williams achieving the pole this year, probably a very inspired Sebastian if Ferrari improves a little bit.

Probably? Mercedes have every single pole this year. Ferrari with an inspired Sebastian may make the front row, but not pole unless both Mercedes drivers have stinkers.

The probability, by any measure, says Mercedes will get pole.

[Vasconia]

I dont see the Williams achieving the pole this year, probably a very inspired Sebastian if Ferrari improves a little bit.

Probably? Mercedes have every single pole this year. Ferrari with an inspired Sebastian may make the front row, but not pole unless both Mercedes drivers have stinkers.

The probability, by any measure, says Mercedes will get pole.

Yes but If I am not wrong last year Mercedes achieved all the poles under normal circumstances until this race. So, why not? I know its extremely difficult, but this is one of the tracks where it could happen.

You know, I am desperate to see another team achieving the pole.

[ChrisF1]

I didn't see the race, but I was always under the impression that Mercedes would have gotten pole had the drivers not been getting times wiped out by circuit limits? Did Williams genuinely have a pace advantage?

[mikeerfol]

Remember Hamilton spun on his final lap as well and the yellow flags didn't allow Rosberg to improve his time.

[dren]

What are the thoughts on the expected turn out this year?

Red Bull is in a shambles so possible less of a crowd... but could there be large contingency of Austrian fans who support the Austrian leadership at Mercedes?

I expect a large turn out. Red Bull is at its best when handling the promotion.

[f1316]

Kimi was .6 off the pace in Canada and only.2 from rosberg; will be interested to see the gap to Seb here, given it's an even shorter lap.

I'd think it very unlikely he'll get pole but close enough to capitalise if either has a minor setup or rhythm issue (as nico had in a few races this year and Lewis last year)

You seriously think that was representative? Both Lewis and Nico didn't improve in the final lap of Canadian qualifying on fresh sets, whereas Kimi did improved by slightly over a tenth on his final run. Not sure what happened to Nico (there was a piece of news about "bad tires), but Lewis locked up at the turn 2 on final flier.

I seriously think so, yes. It was and is representative of the fastest laps the Mercedes drivers were able to put together that day - hence it quite clearly represented the ultimate pace car and driver were capable of in that set of circumstances.

Lewis has often gone better on his first lap in q3 this year and nico has often had a problem of one sort another that explained - in his eyes at least- the gap to Lewis.

Bahrain is the prime example: nico didn't push in q2 and didn't have the rhythm to achieve a good lap in q3; in Canada he made changes to the balance because of lack of grip on first set of tyres and this, he says, affected him on the second set (which were fine).

The difference is that, in Bahrain, Seb was in q3 and could therefore capitalise and take 2nd. Could he have done so in Canada? I don't know. His advantage over kimi has been much more than the 0.2 needed but Canada is a shorter lap and perhaps kimi's lap was very good. We just don't know, but Seb looked significantly faster in the race, that's for sure.

What I'm saying is, on an even shorter lap in Austria, the laptime loss from even a small mistake could be enough for vettel to be able to overcome. Let's also not forget that it was one of fernando's stronger qualifying results last year - only .5 from, an admittedly suboptimal, pole - so I think the car will be relatively strong here.

Not enough to beat Mercedes on raw speed but I think that, without any problems,vettel will be close enough to capitalise on mistakes should they arise.

[iotar__]

I seriously think so, yes. It was and is representative of the fastest laps the Mercedes drivers were able to put together that day - hence it quite clearly represented the ultimate pace car and driver were capable of in that set of circumstances.

Then surely Bottas 0,09 and Grosjean 0,18 behind is also representative of Ferrari's ultimate pace? They were closer to KR than he was to Rosberg on a bad lap. Hulkenberg was as close to Ferrari as Raikkonen was to Hamilton.

Some weird statements here:
Last year's race wasn't interesting, Rosberg wasn't chasing Williams and Hamilton wasn't chasing Rosberg. Former jumped Massa after pitstop because Williams left him too long (lost position to Bottas too) and latter jumped Williams with an early stop. It was post Canada equipment saving exercise for Merc and Williams. Track is not that good apart from awkward third sector that caused problems in qualifying.

Rosberg was rather comfortably on pole before Hamilton's spin and yellow flags although faster on that day (theory) of the two Williams drivers messed up his lap. Williams won't be close this time so I don't know what that tells us unless you expect Ferrari to automatically replace them. The only interesting part was Perez on primes despite his grid penalty holding faster cars - tyres played the part which won't be the case this season =D> . I expect a boring weekend.