2017 Pecking Order Speculation

[bauc]

For F1 sake, I hope Merc is not the best car, and by best I mean for 1 + sec per lap faster than the rest. I hope for close battle between 2 or 3 teams with all having 4-5 wins during the season and few surprises

[Mansell89]

Well, just a few days away from first practice when we begin the see where teams are in their 2017 journey and pecking order.

I think the front three are obvious although the exact proximity to one another is harder to fathom.

Mercedes definitely sandbagged in my view but Vettels teaser lap showed Ferrari do have at least half a second in their pocket so they will be very competitive in Melbourne. Red Bull developed very steadily and incrementally over the 8 days and I think they have a tonne of pace in that car if Renault PU can run reliably out of the blocks. Their pace was encouraging given how conservatively they ran all week.

1) Merc/Ferrari
3)Red Bull

The next two I think could be surprise packages. Renault have made a massive step from last year and their car looked nice. However look out for Toro Rosso early, who have designed a beautiful car which was again gradually improving like it's Red Bull sister. The real surprise package with Sainz in it.

4) Toro Rosso
5) Renault

Force India and Williams in my view have their work cut out. They have the best customer power unit available but ultimately these teams have not been reknown for great aero these past two years. They look vulnerable to the smart aero cookies but will be strong at certain tracks. It will be interesting to see them battle Toro Rosso and Renault.

6)Force India
7)Williams

It is hard to place McLaren really. We don't actually know their pace but until they prove otherwise, we have to assume they cannot finish a race distance.

Haas and Sauber look pants though really. The Haas has brake issues and Sauber has an under par power unit. If McLaren run reliably their car has more about its aero to beat them and if Honda remember how to make an engine they may even challenge for Row 4. But that's another story. Haas will find it hard in their first development race and they will be stronger next year for the experience.

McLaren
9)Haas
10)Sauber

[Raleigh]

From testing, the top four are quite clearly Ferrari, Mercedes, Williams and Red Bull, although perhaps not in that order. Ferrari looked very good, too close to call between them and Mercedes which bodes well for the season, meanwhile Williams was a strong 3rd overall in testing and ahead of Red Bull on both one lap and long run pace. However Red Bull has been known to make big leaps from testing to the first race, so they may well end up ahead of Williams.

1. Mercedes
= Ferrari
3. Red Bull
= Williams

In the midfield, Force India and Renault pace appears decent but not spectacular, while Toro Rosso have produced a car that looks like a front runner but unfortunately with no sign of the laptimes to match, and are likely to be in the midfield instead.

5. Force India
= Renault
= Toro Rosso

Further back, Haas have had to design their own car this year, and without so much Ferrari support seem to have dropped towards the back of the field. Still, they may well beat Mclaren, who as with the last 2 years seem to have a good car but severely lacking in power and reliability, while Sauber is almost certainly going to be last this year, the 2016 engine is already looking like a handicap and the car in general shows the team's low funding, lacking in downforce and stability.

8. Haas
9. McLaren
10. Sauber

[Phil]

I still think RedBull will shock a few. I have no technical reasoning whatsoever, or any other plausible explanation, but I do think RedBull will raise quite a few eyebrows. Most expect Ferrari to be strong, possibly as strong as Mercedes. I think Mercedes will still be rather strong, but I expect RedBull to be closer than many anticipate. What would worry me most about RedBull is that they have gone in a completely different direction with their aero design. And I think this might just prove to be extremely effective and difficult to replicate by other teams. The question is how that Renault PU matches up and if the stronger Mercedes PU (if the case) will not make that up to pull out a sizeable advantage again.

[mclaren111]

I still think RedBull will shock a few. I have no technical reasoning whatsoever, or any other plausible explanation, but I do think RedBull will raise quite a few eyebrows. Most expect Ferrari to be strong, possibly as strong as Mercedes. I think Mercedes will still be rather strong, but I expect RedBull to be closer than many anticipate. What would worry me most about RedBull is that they have gone in a completely different direction with their aero design. And I think this might just prove to be extremely effective and difficult to replicate by other teams. The question is how that Renault PU matches up and if the stronger Mercedes PU (if the case) will not make that up to pull out a sizeable advantage again.

What is so different about their aero design ??

[Phil]

Let me rephrase: Their approach seems to differ greatly. The Mercedes and also the Ferrari are very complex aerodynamically. RedBull however have showed up with a car that is seemingly very clean, simple and elegant to the point people have been questioning if they are simply trying to bluff us.

Then I look at how the team have conducted themselves during testing. They didn't seem to panic, they didn't seem concerned. There is this certain calm and calculated coldness about them, that worries me and makes me think that the somewhat underwhelming numbers during testing are not at all representative. As I said, it's a hunch, not more not less. In all the interviews I have watched so far, Newey seems quite happy with what they are doing.

I'd say, the more aerodynamically complex a car is, the more difficult it is to perfectly set it up and control that air flow. Then there is also the question; More downforce means more drag. The key point is who will have the right trade-off between the two - downforce for cornering speed, but to the right degree to not have too much drag. Drag is bad for straight line speed and in the end, fuel efficiency too. So aero efficiency will be a key point. Of course, the PU once again will not be something to be underestimated. We can hope the engines are closer to each other, but once again, I wouldn't underestimate Mercedes to retain a sizeable chunk of performance advantage on the PU side. Maybe not vs the Ferrari, but maybe vs. Renault? In the end, I think RedBull will surprise quite a few. But that of course depends how close Renault is on the PU side.

Just all IMO of course.

[PlatinumZealot]

Newey is smart.

He smart.

He got the keys.

He rolls out a simple looking car for one reason only. To calibrate his wind tunnel to the tee! While we are here feeling sorry for RB, Newey's best guys are in the wind tunnel setting up every vortex to match the real world down to the last micron. He is actually smirking silently to himself because of the impending can of whoopass that he's gonna unleash on us when Europe comes!

[Nathanael F1]

1. Ferrari/Mercedes
3. Red Bull
...
4. Williams
5. Force India
6. Renault
...
7. Toro Rosso
...
8. Haas
9. McLaren
...
...
...
...
...
10. Sauber

[SR71]

1st half of the season:

1) Ferrari - those few hundred million injected since allisons departure bought this position
2) Red Bull - ultra simple philosophy will teach the usual aero guys on this forum some new perspective. Standard Newey
3) Mercedes- suspension ban cost them

2nd half of the season:
1) Red Bull - Renault upgraded and Newey development. No brainer.
2) Ferrari - expect usual Ferrari tactical errors to show their ugly head
3) Mercedes - full melt down mode with works pull out at the end of the year. Patty lowe comes out looking like a genius (which he isn't).

[zeph]

I expect the rest of the teams to be around where they were last season.

Well, it's only FP1 and 2, but looks like Mercedes were sandbagging again during pre-season testing.

Seems Ferrari may have the edge over RBR, but otherwise it looks like business as usual.

[digitalrurouni]

1st half of the season:

1) Ferrari - those few hundred million injected since allisons departure bought this position
2) Red Bull - ultra simple philosophy will teach the usual aero guys on this forum some new perspective. Standard Newey
3) Mercedes- suspension ban cost them

2nd half of the season:
1) Red Bull - Renault upgraded and Newey development. No brainer.
2) Ferrari - expect usual Ferrari tactical errors to show their ugly head
3) Mercedes - full melt down mode with works pull out at the end of the year. Patty lowe comes out looking like a genius (which he isn't).

All due respect but wow I would like to have some of what you are smoking sir!

[TAG]

1st half of the season:

1) Ferrari - those few hundred million injected since allisons departure bought this position
2) Red Bull - ultra simple philosophy will teach the usual aero guys on this forum some new perspective. Standard Newey
3) Mercedes- suspension ban cost them

2nd half of the season:
1) Red Bull - Renault upgraded and Newey development. No brainer.
2) Ferrari - expect usual Ferrari tactical errors to show their ugly head
3) Mercedes - full melt down mode with works pull out at the end of the year. Patty lowe comes out looking like a genius (which he isn't).

All due respect but wow I would like to have some of what you are smoking sir!

Some very knowledgeable people get scooped up by F1 teams, others... throw words up on internet forums.

[continuum16]

I don't know if this is technically "speculation" but after qualifying;

1) Mercedes
2) Ferrari

3) Red Bull


4-6) Haas/Williams/Toro Rosso
7-8) Force India/Renault
9) McLaren
10) Sauber

[nokivasara]

I don't know if this is technically "speculation" but after qualifying;

1) Mercedes
2) Ferrari

3) Red Bull


4-6) Haas/Williams/Toro Rosso
7-8) Force India/Renault
9) McLaren
10) Sauber

I agree and find it strange that we have pretty much the exact same pecking order as last year, despite hugely different formula this year! SFI has dropped a lot aswell as McLaren but otherwise it's like 2016...
It's just the first race but still.

[hichamo]

instead of being happy about how close the competition is, and how good Ferrari has done to give us fans a good races and a big show, but nooooo, they will always come up with excuses ,
if Ferrari wins tomorow, you'l see a lot of people coming in here with their excuses over their preferd driver or team, hell they would blame it for a cat crossing the circuit or even a sh.t bird that distracted the driver.
we need a show in F1, not a train after qualifing!!!