2017 Mexico Grand Prix - Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez, 27-29 October

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dans79
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Re: 2017 Mexico Grand Prix - Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez, 27-29 October

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drunkf1fan wrote:
26 Oct 2017, 19:01
Based on what... based not on qualifying, because qualifying is one thing but the race is another. It's pretty plain to see for anyone with some common sense that RBR is much faster in a race than in qualifying. Verstappen came from 16th and could well have finished within a couple of seconds of Vettel who went into the first corner in 1st place. That implies excellent race pace and also implies that if he had started 5th he could well have come second and potentially been a lot closer to Hamilton than Vettel got.

If RBR and Verstappen in particular didn't have better race pace than Vettel/Ferrari then he shouldn't have been anywhere near either Ferrari at the end of the race.

Just to highlight this, by the 3rd lap Verstappen was 16 seconds off the lead due to the field spreading out quickly. The lap before Vettel's first stop Verstappen was 11 seconds behind him, right after Max's pitstop he was 18 seconds behind Vettel having gone much longer while Vettel was quick after the pitstop. Just before their second pitstop Verstappen was only 5 seconds down on Vettel and at the end he was 2.5 seconds behind Vettel with one lap to go.

Compared to Hamilton, he finished 11 seconds behind him despite starting 16th and being 16 seconds behind after 3 laps, but Hamilton was cruising after he regained the lead so it's hard to say how competitive he would have been, but that Verstappen and RBR together had greater race pace than Kimi or Vettel is pretty much unquestionable.

With a faster car and overtaking being relatively easy at Cota, I would have been surprised if Max didn't get ahead of both Ferrari's had he not had penalties.
Their is more to racing than just starting and finishing positions. For example tire strategy, number of stints, and what tires used in the stints.
https://www.f1fanatic.co.uk/2017/10/23/ ... pit-stops/
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ChrisDanger
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Re: 2017 Mexico Grand Prix - Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez, 27-29 October

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drunkf1fan
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Re: 2017 Mexico Grand Prix - Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez, 27-29 October

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dans79 wrote:
26 Oct 2017, 19:24
drunkf1fan wrote:
26 Oct 2017, 19:01
Based on what... based not on qualifying, because qualifying is one thing but the race is another. It's pretty plain to see for anyone with some common sense that RBR is much faster in a race than in qualifying. Verstappen came from 16th and could well have finished within a couple of seconds of Vettel who went into the first corner in 1st place. That implies excellent race pace and also implies that if he had started 5th he could well have come second and potentially been a lot closer to Hamilton than Vettel got.

If RBR and Verstappen in particular didn't have better race pace than Vettel/Ferrari then he shouldn't have been anywhere near either Ferrari at the end of the race.

Just to highlight this, by the 3rd lap Verstappen was 16 seconds off the lead due to the field spreading out quickly. The lap before Vettel's first stop Verstappen was 11 seconds behind him, right after Max's pitstop he was 18 seconds behind Vettel having gone much longer while Vettel was quick after the pitstop. Just before their second pitstop Verstappen was only 5 seconds down on Vettel and at the end he was 2.5 seconds behind Vettel with one lap to go.

Compared to Hamilton, he finished 11 seconds behind him despite starting 16th and being 16 seconds behind after 3 laps, but Hamilton was cruising after he regained the lead so it's hard to say how competitive he would have been, but that Verstappen and RBR together had greater race pace than Kimi or Vettel is pretty much unquestionable.

With a faster car and overtaking being relatively easy at Cota, I would have been surprised if Max didn't get ahead of both Ferrari's had he not had penalties.
Their is more to racing than just starting and finishing positions. For example tire strategy, number of stints, and what tires used in the stints.
https://www.f1fanatic.co.uk/2017/10/23/ ... pit-stops/
Which has what relevance here? Tire strategy and number of stints isn't relevant, if you end up 11 seconds off the leader via 1 or 3 stops doesn't matter, that you were 11 seconds behind the leader does. Tires used also doesn't matter, those are part of the reason you are as fast as you are, nothing more or less.

Verstappen had to pass many more cars and effectively had a tire life and time penalty for starting so far back and yet finished just over 2 seconds behind Vettel who had a rear gunner helping keep Verstappen away from him.

Different cars with different pace, different tire wear enable different strategies, that is just how it is. realistically Verstappen's strategy was the most compromised anyway, 24 laps on supersofts then 13 laps on the soft, which he was fast on, but was quickly approaching a point he'd get held up and he went for a different and bold strategy. However had he not done so he could have gone to the end on softs, he was gaining on Kimi who was gaining on Vettel.

Realistically the last round of pitstops had little effect on the race. Without them Bottas was slow, Verstappen would have struggled to get past Kimi without significant tire life difference, Kimi was never going to pass Vettel. Without getting to say somewhere between 4th-7th then getting a safety car, you'll finish miles behind the front few guys unless you are faster than them, that is just the way it is.

RBR have also shown exceptional race pace for the past few tracks. In Singapore in Fp2 red bull looked categorically faster than Ferrari, which seems to have been completely ignored as so many claim Vettel would certainly have won there. LIkewise we're told without question that Vettel would have poled in Malaysia and won easily.

Now in America Verstappen was 16 seconds back from Vettel after 3 laps, but finished the race 2 seconds behind him. In Malaysia after 3 laps Vettel was 13 seconds behind Max and the closest he got was 18 seconds behind, but that was clearly completely unsustainable performance as he used way too much fuel and ended up 37 seconds behind. Had he been more sensible he could have certainly finished closer than 37 seconds back, but he'd also never have closed the gap to within 19 seconds as he did, I think a conservative estimate is he'd have ended up around 25 seconds behind Max in similar circumstances. It doesn't matter what strategy you use, it matters where you finish up and imo Max's strategy in the USA was far from optimal, 5-7 laps less on his first stint and 9-10 laps more on his softs would likely have been superior in pace, maybe going to ultras for the last stint.

Don't forget against the same Mercedes, Ferrari didn't have the pace to hold that lead but in Malaysia, where Ham got pole, that RBR was able to pull away from the Mercedes... so I think there is plenty evidence that the RBR has more race pace than the Ferrari right now and is absolutely better able to challenge the Mercedes.

ferkan
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Re: 2017 Mexico Grand Prix - Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez, 27-29 October

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It depends on race tbh. Merc was nowhere in Malaysia and Singapore (Q) yet they were strongest in next 2 races.

drunkf1fan
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Re: 2017 Mexico Grand Prix - Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez, 27-29 October

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Again based on what? Hamilton was faster than Ricciardo in the wet and dry in the race, one session they were off hardly makes for a full weekend. In Malaysia Hamilton got pole, was faster than Kimi(who has been basically matching Vettel in the past 9-10 races in qualifying), and came a comfortable second place. Again some numbers, Max ended up 2 seconds off 2nd and 12 seconds off the lead in the USA after being a little further back by lap 3 than Vettel was in Malaysia. In Malaysia Vettel ended up 25 seconds behind 2nd and 35 seconds off the lead, even if he managed that better and was only 15 seconds off 2nd place, that is still showing significantly worse pace from the car.

I think this is what happened in Singapore, everyone in their mind had Merc, Ferrari, RBR established as the order of performance. When in qualifying it was Ferrari, RBR, Merc, everyone thought both Ferrari and RBR had jumped Mercedes but ignored FP2, which showed pace of RBR, Merc, Ferrari. So now everyone thinks Ferrari is simply faster than RBR and Vettel had he been at the front would have won Malaysia easily.

This is what I think really happened, Red Bull made a HUGE leap in performance in Singapore... Ferrari made no gains, Merc had a bad qualifying session but nothing fundamentally changed. Red Bull don't have extra quali modes so still struggle there but in race mode they went from 3rd fastest to probably joint fastest. From that perspective, then Malaysia, Japan and USA make perfect sense.

If you take a kinda average Vettel to Kimi gap, when Kimi is slow he's mostly around the 18-23 second mark behind Vettel excluding China where they clearly killed Kimi's race in an attempt to hold up Hamilton and he ended up miles behind. If you take that gap for Japan, Vettel is fighting with Ricciardo, not Max and Hamilton.

Honestly what I see is that RBR in Max's hands is now similar in race pace to Merc with Hamilton and a step beyond Vettel. Ricciardo, kimi and Bottas are all lacking race pace consistently to their team mates, in order of best to worst at the moment.

I think without engines dying or random accidents, Max will beat Vettel in the final two races, Mexico might be closer.

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dans79
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Re: 2017 Mexico Grand Prix - Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez, 27-29 October

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drunkf1fan wrote:
26 Oct 2017, 20:22
Which has what relevance here?
He did as well as he did for the following reasons.
  • The team knew ahead of time that he was starting from the back, so they could tune his car to make overtaking and folllowing easier.
  • He started on the tire best suited for the heavy fuel load.
  • His stints were almost the perfect lengths, allowing him to push instead of nursing the tires, like a lot of the other drives including Hamilton did.
This has relevance in Mexico because Daniel is expected to take engine penalties. Thus we will probably see the exact same race up through the field as we did with Max in Austin.
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drunkf1fan
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Re: 2017 Mexico Grand Prix - Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez, 27-29 October

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dans79 wrote:
27 Oct 2017, 03:49
drunkf1fan wrote:
26 Oct 2017, 20:22
Which has what relevance here?
He did as well as he did for the following reasons.
  • The team knew ahead of time that he was starting from the back, so they could tune his car to make overtaking and folllowing easier.
  • He started on the tire best suited for the heavy fuel load.
  • His stints were almost the perfect lengths, allowing him to push instead of nursing the tires, like a lot of the other drives including Hamilton did.
This has relevance in Mexico because Daniel is expected to take engine penalties. Thus we will probably see the exact same race up through the field as we did with Max in Austin.
Tuning your car for overtaking is usually reducing your actual potential lap time. Vettel spent most of the race in clear air, thus that is a disadvantage for Verstappen. He didn't start on the tire best suited for a heavy fuel load, the soft tire would be the best to start on but it really doesn't matter.
On stint length, lol, he did an extremely long stint on the supersoft, then a ridiculously short stint on the soft, then only his final stint I would say was a sensible length stint for the specific tire.

He clearly ran out of tires in the last stint as he pushed hard and had he done an extra 4-5 laps on the softs, which could have easily done twice as long while pushing hard would have easily been a better strategy.

Really none of the three stints were optimised at all, more so the first two stints, he had to start from way down the grid and was already 16 seconds behind Vettel after 3 laps, having a car setup for a higher top speed (if they did that) doesn't improve your lap time at all, it's the opposite, it helps you get stuck in traffic less often but slows you down, in either case you'll be slower than a guy up front in clear air doing the best laps he can. Verstappen closed the gap on Vettel massively between from getting past the slowest drivers to the end of the race while vettel was running the best optimised race he could and Verstappen was no where near doing that. How that can point to anything but superior race pace I don't know.

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Vasconia
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Re: 2017 Mexico Grand Prix - Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez, 27-29 October

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zibby43 wrote:
26 Oct 2017, 11:07
Some information regarding tire strategy:

- The track surface at this event is very smooth and a little slippery, reducing tire wear and degradation despite the high speeds (372 kph was seen in 2016).

- Another fun fact: Pit lane is the longest of the year.

- Last year, most teams opted for one-stoppers. With how "durable" this year's compounds are, it is no surprise that most teams went heavy on the Ultrasofts.
So, another 1-stop strategy this year? hopefully Pirelli will bring softer tyres in 2018. I hate those 1-stop races.

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godlameroso
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Re: 2017 Mexico Grand Prix - Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez, 27-29 October

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That's the plan, one step softer, the medium becomes the hard, soft becomes medium, ss becomes new soft, ultra soft gets tweaked to become SS, and new softer compound to become US.

Although if I didn't know any better I'd say Pirelli changed compounds under our noses. If it were up to me I'd just bring ultra to soft for every race.
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digitalrurouni
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Re: 2017 Mexico Grand Prix - Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez, 27-29 October

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I don't think it affects the race negatively if only 1 stop is needed. We were bitching and moaning about tires being too delicate and now we have drivers who are able to push them quite hard despite the monstrous downforce these cars are generating and we are getting more pushing and better racing and more lunges and we are still unhappy. I am sure this sentiment has been echoed by other members but Pirelli really can do no right can they? I think Pirelli are doing just fine and many more races this year have been brilliant this year - combination of the new cars and the new tires IMO.

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Vasconia
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Re: 2017 Mexico Grand Prix - Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez, 27-29 October

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digitalrurouni wrote:
27 Oct 2017, 15:56
I don't think it affects the race negatively if only 1 stop is needed. We were bitching and moaning about tires being too delicate and now we have drivers who are able to push them quite hard despite the monstrous downforce these cars are generating and we are getting more pushing and better racing and more lunges and we are still unhappy. I am sure this sentiment has been echoed by other members but Pirelli really can do no right can they? I think Pirelli are doing just fine and many more races this year have been brilliant this year - combination of the new cars and the new tires IMO.
I do praise Pirelli´s job, I think those tyres are fine. Just they can improve it a little bit more with a perhaps 1 type of even softer tyres, just to secure that a majority of races have two stops.

Pirelli could slighly soften their selection just to make easier to use more the hard/medium tyres, because in many races they are useless.

Don´t get me wrong I like those tyres because drivers can push as you have already mentioned. But Pirelli should be a Little bit more agressive on certain tracks.

Just_a_fan
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Re: 2017 Mexico Grand Prix - Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez, 27-29 October

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S'funny how people want more stops. Really, we should want no stops other than for damage. That way all overtaking has to take place on track. We have now a situation where someone can overtake simply by changing tyres first. It's "overtaking in the pits" which was hated so much back in the day.

Fickle things, fans. :-)
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Ennis
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Re: 2017 Mexico Grand Prix - Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez, 27-29 October

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Vasconia wrote:
27 Oct 2017, 16:16
digitalrurouni wrote:
27 Oct 2017, 15:56
I don't think it affects the race negatively if only 1 stop is needed. We were bitching and moaning about tires being too delicate and now we have drivers who are able to push them quite hard despite the monstrous downforce these cars are generating and we are getting more pushing and better racing and more lunges and we are still unhappy. I am sure this sentiment has been echoed by other members but Pirelli really can do no right can they? I think Pirelli are doing just fine and many more races this year have been brilliant this year - combination of the new cars and the new tires IMO.
I do praise Pirelli´s job, I think those tyres are fine. Just they can improve it a little bit more with a perhaps 1 type of even softer tyres, just to secure that a majority of races have two stops.

Pirelli could slighly soften their selection just to make easier to use more the hard/medium tyres, because in many races they are useless.

Don´t get me wrong I like those tyres because drivers can push as you have already mentioned. But Pirelli should be a Little bit more agressive on certain tracks.
I do wonder where the happy medium is. The dream state for me is tyres which can be pushed, but will drop off a cliff at a certain point which forces pitting where somehow the longevity of the tyres aren't impacted at all by pushing or nursing. But other than strapping a timed bomb to them, I'm not sure how possible this is...

But I think the one advantage of 'too hard' tyres and the need to use 2 different compounds is you then get situations where drivers have plenty of spare rubber, so there is no advantage to nursing the tyres. As soon as you introduce softer compounds you'll have teams who will be straight back to finding the quickest way to the end - which unfortunately will often mean this nursing taking place as they find that going easy but switching to the 1 stopper is more of an advantage..

TwanV
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Re: 2017 Mexico Grand Prix - Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez, 27-29 October

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ahh Mexico, the spiritual home of track-limit enforcement :lol:
(check out the military presence for good measure)

Image

Curious what FP1 will bring, let's hope the anticipated cooling issues will not spread the field apart too much.

Restomaniac
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Re: 2017 Mexico Grand Prix - Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez, 27-29 October

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I'd put the onus back on the teams. They can bring any 2 side by side compounds ( US/SS, SS/S, S/M, etc) they want but that's it.
Want to do 1 stop instead of 2? Fine but then you have a harder compound in qualifying.