godlameroso wrote: ↑11 Nov 2017, 19:50
NathanOlder wrote: ↑11 Nov 2017, 19:23
Phil wrote: ↑11 Nov 2017, 18:14
Yeah, I noticed the bottoming out too. Before he loses the car, there are a lot of sparks underneath the car, yet from the onboard, he wasn't really on the brakes (perhaps off throttle?).
Steering column snapped.....
Jokes aside, should be a good show tomorrow. I predict P5 for Lewis
If there's a safety car/VSC anything is possible, however if it's a clean dry race I don't think they can catch Alonso from way back, if he gets ahead of Perez on the opening lap I'm pretty sure he can hold down 5th. In Mexico he was stuck behind a slower Haas and wasn't able to use his pace, tomorrow everyone in front of him is faster so that will give him clean air to use his pace, which as we saw today is only 1 second slower. The gap needs to be over 1.4 seconds to make an overtake doable without a mistake from the lead driver.
People really do latch on to things said, needing to be 1.4 seconds faster at one track doesn't mean you need that gap everywhere. Mexico is a freak track, where you have a ridiculously long straight and yet slipstreaming/drs barely works. You do not need to be 1.4seconds faster per lap full stop, vettel was not 1.4 seconds slower in COTA, Hamilton passed him anyway, Vettel was not 1.4 seconds faster than Hamilton and he passed him, same with Ricciardo on Bottas. 1.4 seconds was incredibly specific to Mexico and probably wasn't true anyway, not directly.
Aside from that position doesn't mean much of anything in general, time from the front does. You can come 5th and be 20 seconds behind the leader or 80seconds behind the leader. Alonso has had some okay position finishes but he's ended up mostly 70+ seconds behind the leaders. Vettel in Malaysia and using too much fuel so he had to back off massively he ended up 37 seconds back from Max, Max starting from 16th finished 12 seconds behind Hamilton in COTA, etc.
People get held up and lose time, or gain it in clean air but the general pace of the car pretty much dictates how close you can get to the front. Hamilton has a car that with good luck can finish ~15 seconds off the lead despite coming through the back and with bad luck should be within ~30 seconds, if there are safety cars at the right time he could easily get a podium.
Mexico and Alonso was actually ~130 seconds behind the leaders and despite how much he was held up, he didn't lose a minute, in Japan he was 99 seconds behind the leaders, Cota Alonso was 40 seconds back before midway and Vandoorne was 87 seconds off the lead by the end. That car has little race pace and has never had so.
Unless some miracle happens in the race I'll be extremely surprised if Perez, Hamilton and likely Ocon and Massa don't finish ahead of Alonso.