2018 pre-season testing thread

[PhillipM]

The way I look at it is, if someone did a fast time and then for couple of laps slowed down for whatever reason and then continued doing fast times once again for a number of laps, it means the stint was full of fast laps and you can pretty much discard the slow laps in between! It doesn't matter to who does that.

...or they're recovering the tyres from overheating, or they're recharging the battery packs. Both of which would be required in the race.

[Phil]

I don't understand, I thought yesterday everyone agreed Merc is a second ahead because of an epic race sim by Bottas. Give some justice to Hamilton, guys.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

Check the times here, by all means, please.

Are you purposely ignoring multiple replies to you? What is your point? Do you want to compare drivers or are you more interested in determining the rough performance of the car? As has been pointed out multiple times, some laps are slower probably due to traffic, driver error or some other factors (LH lap 13 i.e.). LH also had some drop off or traffic towards the end of his stint. Overall though, his first stint looks quicker than Bottas (he dips into the 21s, where as Bottas doesn't). This might be down to the handling the tires different. Anyway, what we can conclude is that both stints look extremely fast (compared to the others) and that Mercedes obviously has a fast car.

Also note that track temperatures are different today than they were yesterday (it's warmer today).

[rogazilla]

i think there is advantage to see how much hp reduction through the 7 GP distances and plan accordingly. Also tear it down and see which components can be made lighter or redesign to last longer.

Although in Testing you see team running short stints and obviously during aero test, the engine probably not stressed like a GP weekend. But given the 3 PU a season rule, its probably good to have an idea what's the loss over time and what can they do to improve.

[Carlo_Carrera]

"“I personally feel stronger, that’s a positive,” Hamilton said. “I don’t know where we are in terms of the pack but our week has been very good, very productive, we got through everything we needed. Reliability has been fantastic and the car feels great."

https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/head ... ilton.html

Nobody really knows.

[f1316]

https://s9.postimg.org/cz1gvnbin/race_sim_mercedes.png

Yes mate, you are correct. Those are the laps that give these average times.

I don't understand the business of averaging out a whole race length of times. What would one achieve? The way I look at it is, if someone did a fast time and then for couple of laps slowed down for whatever reason and then continued doing fast times once again for a number of laps, it means the stint was full of fast laps and you can pretty much discard the slow laps in between! It doesn't matter to who does that.

Well that wouldn't be a very good simulation of a race - in a race you have to manage your tyres, fuel, strategy etc. you can't just use all the grip on the first lap and cruise around for a bit to bring the temps down and then go fast again. You have to be on it throughout

The purpose of looking at either a. total race time or b. average lap time is to see how good cars actually are over a race distance. Now it doesn't help if one team is not using a proper race strategy in terms of tyres - throws everything out of whack - hence why you have to take some of these gaps with a pinch of salt, but to me it's the most indicative a car's overall pace.

That said, it is just testing, and I think there are a whole host of caveats going on; if Mercedes want to do something different than simulate an actual race (i.e. using mediums throughout) then that's more than fair enough.

[Phil]

f1316 - you are aware that now during testing, the whole grid is spread out chaotically, where as in a race they aren't, right? Getting into traffic can have a HUGE impact, especially around this track. Also lack of downforce in corners etc, even if drivers are nice about letting by each other. Think about it - you're doing 67 laps on a race sim. How often do you think you are likely to encounter any of the 9 other cars doing other sorts of stuff like faster laps? Warming up tires? Cooling down tires etc?

[f1316]

AMuS:
Ferrari calls Räikkönen after ten laps on the supersoft for the first tire change: Starter round (2:03 min.) - 1: 23.5 - 1: 23.7 - 1: 24.7 - 1: 23.7 - 1: 24.1 - 1: 23.7 - 1: 24.2 - 1: 24.9 - Inlap (1: 25.4).

So look at this and compare with Hamilton's 1st stint - of course Ham's looks much quicker.

But you can see that the first few laps are slower - the first one 1.5 secs slower - which is about what you'd expect from a SS vs. Med; then the SS (which is last year's Ultra Soft, don't forget) wears out very fast and lap times tumble; Hamilton, on the other hand, continues getting faster and faster as his tyres are not degrading but his fuel load is coming down and down.

So it's a completely apples and oranges situation - only that in the actual race, they'll be on SS not Mediums.

[Phil]

You should check out dans post, he actually went through the effort of comparing Vettels medium stint vs Bottas medium stint on equal fuel loads and highlighting the age of the respective tires at that point. No one, really no one, was comparing SS vs M in either case.

EDIT:
forum/viewtopic.php?p=746360#p746360

[f1316]

f1316 - you are aware that now during testing, the whole grid is spread out chaotically, where as in a race they aren't, right? Getting into traffic can have a HUGE impact, especially around this track. Also lack of downforce in corners etc, even if drivers are nice about letting by each other. Think about it - you're doing 67 laps on a race sim. How often do you think you are likely to encounter any of the 9 other cars doing other sorts of stuff like faster laps? Warming up tires? Cooling down tires etc?

I am aware of that. But I'm also aware that things happen the race too - getting stuck behind a slower car, back markers etc. - and, moreover, this is the teams' attempts to *simulate* a *race* (hence race sim). It's not perfect, but it's best efforts to try and see what it would be like to cover a race distance.

Hence, fastest total time or best average lap time seems pretty important.

I do, however, completely grant that loads of other stuff is going on here - driving to deltas, lifting and coasting, using different tyres - so I'm taking every and all conclusions with a pinch of salt.

[Vanja #66]

So... Can we than say that laps 15-28 for BOT and VET sims are comparable? Medium tyres for both, though not the same time of day. I mean, I don't know, I'm confused, what's the reference here, how are we comparing times and concluding Merc is so far ahead?

[Juzh]

AMuS:
Ferrari calls Räikkönen after ten laps on the supersoft for the first tire change: Starter round (2:03 min.) - 1: 23.5 - 1: 23.7 - 1: 24.7 - 1: 23.7 - 1: 24.1 - 1: 23.7 - 1: 24.2 - 1: 24.9 - Inlap (1: 25.4).

So look at this and compare with Hamilton's 1st stint - of course Ham's looks much quicker.

But you can see that the first few laps are slower - the first one 1.5 secs slower - which is about what you'd expect from a SS vs. Med; then the SS (which is last year's Ultra Soft, don't forget) wears out very fast and lap times tumble; Hamilton, on the other hand, continues getting faster and faster as his tyres are not degrading but his fuel load is coming down and down.

So it's a completely apples and oranges situation - only that in the actual race, they'll be on SS not Mediums.

Mercedes are maybe simulating doing Q2 on medium and start the race on that tire. Given that we'll probably see med-soft-supersoft tires on this track it seems reasonable, especially since tire differences in that range seem rather small.

[f1316]

You should check out dans post, he actually went through the effort of comparing Vettels medium stint vs Bottas medium stint on equal fuel loads and highlighting the age of the respective tires at that point. No one, really no one, was comparing SS vs M in either case.

Yep, I saw it. But it still doesn't tell the full story: if you're trying to stretch a stint (because you've been hampered by using a tyre that doesn't last as long and can't just do 3 equal stints) then you're much more likely to nurse those tyres; so even younger tyres may not be as fast as an older tyre if the younger tyre is being driven to a set delta to make it last.

And actually, I've been reading this throughout, and there were those who thought the Ferrari should be quicker because they used what is in theory a 'faster' tyre.

[Chene_Mostert]

I don't understand, I thought yesterday everyone agreed Merc is a second ahead because of an epic race sim by Bottas. Give some justice to Hamilton, guys.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

Check the times here, by all means, please.

Are you purposely ignoring multiple replies to you? What is your point? Do you want to compare drivers or are you more interested in determining the rough performance of the car? As has been pointed out multiple times, some laps are slower probably due to traffic, driver error or some other factors (LH lap 13 i.e.). LH also had some drop off or traffic towards the end of his stint. Overall though, his first stint looks quicker than Bottas (he dips into the 21s, where as Bottas doesn't). This might be down to the handling the tires different. Anyway, what we can conclude is that both stints look extremely fast (compared to the others) and that Mercedes obviously has a fast car.

Also note that track temperatures are different today than they were yesterday (it's warmer today).

OK
So you select stints that looks quicker.
and use words like:
"some laps"
"probably"
"some other factors"
"some drop off"
"or"
"might be"
and the you whant to come to a factual conclusion?
so much for scientific method.
At this point in time we are all concluding what we would like to conclude, you maybe a bit more than others.

[Phil]

I am aware of that. But I'm also aware that things happen the race too - getting stuck behind a slower car, back markers etc. - and, moreover, this is the teams' attempts to *simulate* a *race* (hence race sim). It's not perfect, but it's best efforts to try and see what it would be like to cover a race distance.

But no one is comparing these race simulations to last years race. We are comparing the stints of one driver/car to another. Overall, when you normalize them slightly, one can see what the rough performance is for that stint and draw conclusions from them.

As you said, driving to a delta or slow on purpose would falsify results. So the best conclusions we can draw, is that teams are doing a realistic race sim (best effort) and thus, we can compare them for that. But instead of comparing a SS vs M first stint, it makes more sense to compare the other stints and take into account how old the tires are at that point to make a rough guestimate. We know the older the tire, the less performance they will yield. But if a car is still faster on older tires, well, it either has superior tire wear and/or performance.

[f1316]

So... Can we than say that laps 15-28 for BOT and VET sims are comparable? Medium tyres for both, though not the same time of day. I mean, I don't know, I'm confused, what's the reference here, how are we comparing times and concluding Merc is so far ahead?

I still don't think you can (or you shouldn't).

If you're VET and you fit the Medium tyres at 10 laps, you know you need to to do another 52 laps on two stints; if you're BOT, you fit the Mediums at, say, lap 18 (I don't have the numbers), then your next two stints only need to cover 44 laps. So the delta you're going to drive to in order to make them last is going to be significantly different.