2018 Chinese Grand Prix - Shanghai, April 13-15

[zibby43]

Which factor should play into Ferraris hands and which to Mercedes this weekend.
Cool weather: Mercedes
Q3 tyres (US): Ferrari
Tyre pressures: dont know them
High tyre wear: Ferrari
Front-limited circuit: Mercedes
Power of the engine (main straight): both are likely equal

A new weather forecast from yr.no (usually a very reliable website) which gets its data from ECMWF weather (used by european meteorologist) model is showing now no rain for FP1, and maybe just a shower for FP2, but nothing big. Hope it stay like this.

Re: tire wear this season, Mercedes has been very gentle on its tires during the races.

Mercedes had a lot of pace left in their Mediums at the end of the race in Bahrain, and James Allison went on record saying that they're near or at the top of the field (thus far) in terms of tire degradation over the course of a race.

Where Mercedes has gotten into tire trouble one time this year was with the SS in Bahrain qualifying. Over a single lap, in very hot conditions, the Mercedes has historically (even before the W09, and certainly last year with the W08) had a tendency to overheat the softest compounds over a single lap.

This overheating of the surface on the softer compounds in hot conditions robs the rear tires of their maximum performance because they're outside the operating window. Getting the tires switched on and keeping them in the window has huge implications for single lap pace. Final sectors can just fall apart.

Thought that was an important distinction to make re: how this season has unfolded thus far.

[ferkan]

Yet Merc had best final sector times.

[LM10]

I see no indication that speaks against a Ferrari double victory this week-end.

This track has tradionally suited Mercedes and I see now reason why they shouldn´t be very strong here. I have some doubts about how strong Ferrari can be here. The longer wheelbase and the new floor could be a boost but its difficult to measure it.

I always read this tradition thing, but which tradition are we really talking about? Mercedes has been fastest there since 2014, but I don't think that it surprised anyone since China is a track on which power is important and Mercedes has been dominating almost each track anyway.
Last year Vettel was just 2 tenths down in qualifying and he should or even must have won the race. I think Mercedes will be strong here, stronger than they were in Bahrain. I also look at them as the favourites, but let's see.

[zibby43]

Yet Merc had best final sector times.

It's track specific. If you look at Sector 3 in Bahrain, for example, the long straights can help to cool the tires. So, Sector 3 in Bahrain probably helped Merc's problem a bit.

If you're overheating your rears and heading into a Sector 3 packed with demanding corners, different story entirely. Hence, "final sectors can fall apart."

Pretty basic stuff here.

[Vasconia]

I always read this tradition thing, but which tradition are we really talking about? Mercedes has been fastest there since 2014, but I don't think that it surprised anyone since China is a track on which power is important and Mercedes has been dominating almost each track anyway.
Last year Vettel was just 2 tenths down in qualifying and he should or even must have won the race. I think Mercedes will be strong here, stronger than they were in Bahrain. I also look at them as the favourites, but let's see.

Why? I can´t recall how the race developed but I had the idea that Hamilton´s victory was quite clear.

[ferkan]

Yet Merc had best final sector times.

It's track specific. If you look at Sector 3 in Bahrain, for example, the long straights can help to cool the tires. So, Sector 3 in Bahrain probably helped Merc's problem a bit.

If you're overheating your rears and heading into a Sector 3 packed with demanding corners, different story entirely. Hence, "final sectors can fall apart."

Pretty basic stuff here.

My point is they looked pretty good in Bahrain. As in, they didn't look like in Singapore or that there was 1s missing somewhere. It just seemed like Ferrari was slightly faster, that is all. Being slightly faster does not mean Merc must have had horrible issue with its car.

[dren]

I'm expecting Hamilton to bounce back and take pole and victory.

[LM10]

I always read this tradition thing, but which tradition are we really talking about? Mercedes has been fastest there since 2014, but I don't think that it surprised anyone since China is a track on which power is important and Mercedes has been dominating almost each track anyway.
Last year Vettel was just 2 tenths down in qualifying and he should or even must have won the race. I think Mercedes will be strong here, stronger than they were in Bahrain. I also look at them as the favourites, but let's see.

Why? I can´t recall how the race developed but I had the idea that Hamilton´s victory was quite clear.

Vettel put on Softs under VSC, Mercedes didn't. The track was getting dryer and better, so Hamilton would have had a big disadvantage being slower on intermediates and also having to pit in normal race speed later. But then Giovinazzi crashed and SC was deployed so Mercedes could pit Hamilton without losing much time.

On pure race pace Mercedes was faster, I guess. Vettel would have won in a strategical way.

[f1316]

Without the safety car, Vettel and Ferrari would have got ahead via strategy - they may not have stayed ahead but they’d have had track position.

In terms of actual pace, the picture wasn’t clear - once Vettel got back to second, he had actually reduced the gap, but equally Hamilton almost certainly wasn’t pushing /using highest modes. Likewise, the gap in quali was less than in the first race - during which Ferrari got stronger - but also don’t know if that pattern would have reported.

But I also agree that ‘traditionally strong’ circuits only means so much; for example, the Ferrari appears to have a very different philosophy this years in terms of low drag. Equally, if you do subscribe to the historical view, you could argue in each of the last two years Ferrari have been closer in China quali than in Australia quali - so relatively speaking it’s suited them.

I honestly expect a very close race and still feel RB can be close in the race - enough to be strategically disruptive - if they have a clean race.

[godlameroso]

Weather update, rain expected in the afternoon long after FP sessions so it may be dry all weekend.

[Vettel165]

Teams again playing with oil.

https://www.auto-motor-und-sport.de/for ... d-haerter/

"Fuel consumption has risen significantly in all this year. Because the drive units deliver the same amount of power despite the longer running times . And the cars have up to five percent more downforce. As a rule, this also means more air resistance. The top speeds have dropped compared to last year. This means more time on the straights, more time under full load and thus a higher consumption.

The engine technicians have calculated that on the critical routes would need 109 instead of 105 kilograms to get through carefree.

So far it is not clear who is affected. Renault seems to be hit the hardest. The Renault drivers had to in Melbourne even after seven laps under safety-car conditions take the foot off the gas. In Bahrain even Honda made a better figure. Ferrari operated in Bahrain more lift and coast than Mercedes. However, an engineer from the silver camp warns: "We drove there most of the time in the slipstream. This helps."

Mercedes has another problem, you can hear under the hand. The cars with Mercedes engines are not as fast on the straights as they should be. This has supposedly to do with the oil specification. We hear that Petronas dug up a 2016 oil grade to be on the safe side with oil consumption. Until the beginning of the season, the oil consumption of Mercedes and Ferrari was only 0.01 liters below the permitted limit of 0.6 liters per 100 kilometers.

After the oil correction, Mercedes should be on the safe side when it comes to oil consumption. But that also costs power . Ferrari is obviously still taking full risk just below the pain threshold. And it benefits relative to the competition. No wonder that Mercedes engine chief Andy Cowell said: "In qualifying Ferrari and we are on par." So far, this was the domain of the Mercedes engine.

The oil theme could boil up soon. The opponents of Ferrari are trying to find out why the Ferrari engine in the factory car smokes so much when starting. And even when driving smokes more than the other Ferrari teams. Should not all engines of a manufacturer be the same this year ?

Some suspect some trick behind that will allow Ferrari to add oil to the combustion process. Meanwhile, it is also known how the oil tricksters have practiced in the past. A gasket in the compressor of the turbocharger was carefully constructed "leaking" so that a pre-calculated amount of oil could enter the combustion chamber."

[GPR-A duplicate2]

I would be surprised if two hundred questions haven't reached FIA already, about Ferrari's smoky flavor in the pit lane! Customers should get the same specification of engines and why is that they are not smoking in the pitlane and the start?

[LM10]

I would be surprised if two hundred questions haven't reached FIA already, about Ferrari's smoky flavor in the pit lane! Customers should get the same specification of engines and why is that they are not smoking in the pitlane and the start?

This is what AMuS wrote after testing:

"Meanwhile, the mystery of the smoking Ferrari engines is clarified. Obviously there were bearings in the turbocharger with too large tolerances. As a result, oil was blown into the engine through the compressor and burned. That's why the phenomenon was seen only in Ferrari and Sauber. In the turbocharger of HaasF1 a different batch of bearings is installed."

[Vanja #66]

I would be surprised if two hundred questions haven't reached FIA already, about Ferrari's smoky flavor in the pit lane! Customers should get the same specification of engines and why is that they are not smoking in the pitlane and the start?

From what I heard just today, Ferrari actually haven't changed their PUs from pre-season. Seb's car has the one from first week, Kimi's from second, so that's why they are smoking a lot still. Until they change their p3/qualy/race engines, they'll be smoking a lot, with those older spec bearings and what not. Haas and Sauber on the other hand, use new units, as is their right as customer teams of course, so less smoking from them now.

[GPR-A duplicate2]

I would be surprised if two hundred questions haven't reached FIA already, about Ferrari's smoky flavor in the pit lane! Customers should get the same specification of engines and why is that they are not smoking in the pitlane and the start?

From what I heard just today, Ferrari actually haven't changed their PUs from pre-season. Seb's car has the one from first week, Kimi's from second, so that's why they are smoking a lot still. Until they change their p3/qualy/race engines, they'll be smoking a lot, with those older spec bearings and what not. Haas and Sauber on the other hand, use new units, as is their right as customer teams of course, so less smoking from them now.

I was actually thinking it's a new way of advertisement from Marlboro!!!