2018 Canadian Grand Prix, Montreal June 8-10

[TAG]

[TAG]

I've attended this GP three times, every year the grand stands are packed for qualifying let alone come race day, FP2 sports full grand stands. The circuit is fantastic, the location is close to a huge portion of the population of the NA continent and the weather is always a mixed bag, so you need to pack SPF50 and a rain poncho, and may need to wear both on the same day. Oh Canada!

Last year the Senna family giving Hamilton that helmet was a very special moment in the sport. Seeing that picture while searching for stuff to post on the race thread reminded me of it.

BTW, is Renault still on track to bring their PU updates this weekend?

[zibby43]

I've attended this GP three times, every year the grand stands are packed for qualifying let alone come race day, FP2 sports full grand stands. The circuit is fantastic, the location is close to a huge portion of the population of the NA continent and the weather is always a mixed bag, so you need to pack SPF50 and a rain poncho, and may need to wear both on the same day. Oh Canada!

Last year the Senna family giving Hamilton that helmet was a very special moment in the sport. Seeing that picture while searching for stuff to post on the race thread reminded me of it.

BTW, is Renault still on track to bring their PU updates this weekend?

That's awesome. I love watching coverage for this event as the atmosphere comes across as outstanding.

I would love to attend this GP. I'm not *too* far away here in Indiana.

[godlameroso]

Pole if it's dry 1:10.9. Ferrari are the favorites around here this year, or at least will give Mercedes a run for their money unlike last year.

[Fulcrum]

Well, I don't know about that. This looks like one of Ferrari's least competitive tracks based on the results since 2014.

Raikkonen in particular is absolutely rubbish here. Even in his most dominant years/cars, his results at Canada have lagged those of other tracks. I've actually analysed this before, and its either his worst track or next worst. Monza being another. Heavy braking zones are not his forte.

Summary: Vettel won't have Raikkonen for a rear gunner here, unless Ferrari are so dominant that Vettel would be comfortably in the lead anyway.

[Phil]

Interesting tire allocation. Mercedes has the least amount of HS, by quite a margin.

[Just_a_fan]

Unlike Kimi, Lewis usually goes well at this track. 7 poles and 6 wins IIRC. If the Mercedes and Ferrari are equal then Seb is going to need to be on his A-game to get pole.

[LM10]

Interesting tire allocation. Mercedes has the least amount of HS, by quite a margin.

Meaning: Ferrari will have much more practice runs on HS for one lap pace. Come race, I assume, like always, all of them will have the same amount of each tyre.

[zibby43]

Interesting tire allocation. Mercedes has the least amount of HS, by quite a margin.

Meaning: Ferrari will have much more practice runs on HS for one lap pace. Come race, I assume, like always, all of them will have the same amount of each tyre.

Mercedes should be able to comfortably get through Q2 on US.

Because of the long straights here, there won't be as big of a gap between the HS and US.

[LM10]

Interesting tire allocation. Mercedes has the least amount of HS, by quite a margin.

Meaning: Ferrari will have much more practice runs on HS for one lap pace. Come race, I assume, like always, all of them will have the same amount of each tyre.

Mercedes should be able to comfortably get through Q2 on US.

Because of the long straights here, there won't be as big of a gap between the HS and US.

True, I expect Ferrari to do the same. However, in Q3 all of them will use HS and more practice on them might be beneficial. More so, if we consider that Mercedes has not used them except in Monaco, but that's a completely different track.

[Phil]

Interesting tire allocation. Mercedes has the least amount of HS, by quite a margin.

Meaning: Ferrari will have much more practice runs on HS for one lap pace. Come race, I assume, like always, all of them will have the same amount of each tyre.

No, it means that Mercedes has gambled that the Super-Soft and the Ultra-Soft will be more important for the race. Both RedBull and Ferrari have 2 sets of SS and 3 sets of the US tire. That means they are limited to some degree what and how they test. For example; If they want to retain a fresh set of SS for the race, they can only use one set each during free-practice and gather intel from them.

Last year, it was a 1 stop for most (= 2 stints) with some that gambled on 2 stops (i.e. Vettel). The one-stoppers (Ham, Bottas, Kimi, Ric) started on the Ultra-Soft (the softest at that race) and some did the second stint on the SS and some on the S. Vettel who did a two stop, did US-SS-US. This year could be a 2 stop race for most if the tires are indeed that less durable because they are more aggressive than last years tires. Hamilton also once demonstrated that stopping more can work if you're fast enough to catch up, as overtaking is possible on this track.

If it is indeed a 2-stop race, having fresh and unused sets of the harder compound could be an advantage. Obviously, the allocation dictate how much you can test and gather intel on them during FP and retain a fresh set for the race. The big question will also be, how usable the HS tire is. No doubt it will probably be the quickest, but how long will it last on a track where you can easily overtake? If it doesn't last long, it may not be a tire you'd want to use during the race.

Possibly strategies:

HS-US-(US)
US-SS-(HS/US)
HS-SS-(HS/US)

[FrukostScones]

Rain or no rain, Verstappen will win this GP.

[Fulcrum]

Unlike Kimi, Lewis usually goes well at this track. 7 poles and 6 wins IIRC. If the Mercedes and Ferrari are equal then Seb is going to need to be on his A-game to get pole.

Outside of reliability issues, or other sources of random variation (pitstops, Virtual Safety Cars, etc...), Lewis would have to start this race as the overwhelming favourite. If the Renault engine upgrade is any good, Red Bull may very well be ahead of at least 1 Ferrari on pure pace as well.

[Phil]

Apparently, Renault have 6 engines with the new spec, but it's not sure yet if all 6 cars will race the new engine, due to usage of components and varying mileage of the parts already in use. I think however that RedBull will use it in both (if they can) due to their upcoming decision regarding engines for 2019...

Ferrari is also said to bring the upgraded spec with La Gazzetta dello Sport claiming is worth 15-20 horse power. Any news on Mercedes? I presume they will bring their new spec to Canada as well? I'm also curious to see if Ferrari remain having that edge in qualifying or if the focus on their battery usage has cost them some.

[Webber2011]

Rain or no rain, Verstappen will win this GP.

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