Phil wrote: ↑28 Jul 2018, 16:39
I think thr weather will be really hot tomorrow; so my guess is Mercedes may be cautious about putting US and then being forced to pit early and potentially into traffic.
Going by the past 2 GPs, it has been Mercedes who have managed to get best pace in hot conditions, while Ferrari and Red Bull have shown a lot of blistering on the tires. So from that perspective, it might not harm to start on US and maintain the pace at the front. With the kind of potential starts that Ferrari can get, it would be risky for Mercedes to start on Softs, that require much longer to get into the zone than US.
Phil wrote: ↑28 Jul 2018, 16:39
Given the nature of the track (like Monaco) it would make sense to retain a 1-2 into the first corner, then try to bunch up the field as much so that none of the Ferraris can pit (as it would put them into traffic). By doing that, they could retain performance in the tire towards the end of the stint. Being in the lead also means you are the first to get a free space to pit. I think the Soft tire may be the less risky option, then go to the mediums later in the stint.
Or indeed a US-S race to make sure you are not vulnerable at the start.
While it would be a good idea to bunch up, but hungary almost always provides SC and there is a good opportunity to play a gamble too.