2018 Japanese Grand Prix - Suzuka, 5-7 October

[SpeeDemon]

About Lewis's alleged engine concerns and possible grid penalty :
"Mercedes trackside engineering director Andrew Shovlin has shut down speculation the engine of Lewis Hamilton's engine having issues, saying "there is no concern" around the Brit's power unit"

Source : Merc Youtube Channel

Weather-wise, seems almost certain friday and saturday will be all wet, but race gonna be dry
Temp will be high though, 29 degrees Celsius.

[Vasconia]

My favourite track ever!!

It was better when cars were able to chase each other, and specially when 130R was a proper corner where cars couldn´t go flat out, but still my favourite combination of different corners and straights in the calendar

Edit: Felt the need to watch Alonso-Schumacher overtake at 130R again, man I still feel the shock it was when watched it live

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qGdmWq4ooQo

From this one it looks easy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FuDokYf2u94

I dont mean it wasn´t a good overtake but Schumacher was so slow at that moment. Look how the McLaren behind him wants to overtake him going left and right.

[Vasconia]

I don’t think Ferrari’s tyre choice has hurt them at all in the last few races - I think that’s a complete red herring.

In Singapore they chose not to use the soft in race - even though they had a set - not because they lacked running on it but because they aggressively (and mistakenly) thought they could jump Hamilton using US; if they had, they’d have counted on the lack of overtaking possibilities and/or a safety car (which does usually come) to allow Seb to hold on against a faster Hamilton.

In Russia, the plan would have worked fine using th softs to undercut (albeit, would have been better if they’d anticipated Bottas’ stop - as I explain in the Russia race thread) if Vettel hadn’t made a mistake, allowing Hamilton the chance to pass.

So their tyre choice was perfectly fine and I see no reason why it should affect them here; whether they’re fast is a different story but I expect the high amount of on throttle will suit them.

This track is quite hard with the tyres so the mediums could be a fine option for the race. Ferrari has only one so they can´t check it properly. They should have at least two in order to use it in FP.

[Phil]

I don’t think Ferrari’s tyre choice has hurt them at all in the last few races - I think that’s a complete red herring.

Not hurting and lucking into little damage are two separate things. I think Ferrari have been quite lucky to get away with some of their tire allocation choices this year in the sense that RedBull has been plagued by reliability and hasn't been a closer competitor. Same applies to Mercedes.

Tire allocations are foremost a gamble. You can be aggressive and bank on a particular tire that may turn out to be wrong - or you lack the running time on the other tires and therefore lack data, or you can play it safe and bring a more balanced allocation that may give you options, however that may compromise your qualifying running.

Ferrari have gone aggressive and it may hurt them, or it may not. If and how, will depend on circumstance. Ferrari have also been in a pretty good position (hence them being aggressive) because their car is consistently good on most tires. Mercedes, at least earlier in the season, isn't. They've struggled on some compounds more so than others, so it makes sense that Mercedes is giving themselves more options for the race weekend. If they struggle on one tire, they have the option to use the other two during the race. This was the case on numerous occasions earlier in the season when Mercedes dictated their strategy by going with the two harder compounds during the race.

[GrandAxe]

Ferrari must have gambled on rain coming down and so negating their extreme tyre choice. They will be in all kinds of trouble if it doesn't rain.

[F1NAC]

Ferrari must have gambled on rain coming down and so negating their extreme tyre choice. They will be in all kinds of trouble if it doesn't rain.

Judging by their recent pace in wet, they will be in trouble anyways

[f1316]

I don’t think Ferrari’s tyre choice has hurt them at all in the last few races - I think that’s a complete red herring.

Not hurting and lucking into little damage are two separate things. I think Ferrari have been quite lucky to get away with some of their tire allocation choices this year in the sense that RedBull has been plagued by reliability and hasn't been a closer competitor. Same applies to Mercedes.

Tire allocations are foremost a gamble. You can be aggressive and bank on a particular tire that may turn out to be wrong - or you lack the running time on the other tires and therefore lack data, or you can play it safe and bring a more balanced allocation that may give you options, however that may compromise your qualifying running.

Ferrari have gone aggressive and it may hurt them, or it may not. If and how, will depend on circumstance. Ferrari have also been in a pretty good position (hence them being aggressive) because their car is consistently good on most tires. Mercedes, at least earlier in the season, isn't. They've struggled on some compounds more so than others, so it makes sense that Mercedes is giving themselves more options for the race weekend. If they struggle on one tire, they have the option to use the other two during the race. This was the case on numerous occasions earlier in the season when Mercedes dictated their strategy by going with the two harder compounds during the race.

Ok but answer me this: when was the last time we had more than one stop in a race (other than for safety cars)?

I think Ferrari’s strategy is predicated on the fact that one set of mediums is plenty - particularly if they can qualify on the mid tyre, as has often been the case - and so their main focus has been to set the car up for pole and hence track position. The RB strategy from Vettel’s championship years, you might say.

It wasn’t so long ago Mercedes were criticised for not bringing enough hypers to Canada and costing themselves pole.

[GrandAxe]

Ferrari must have gambled on rain coming down and so negating their extreme tyre choice. They will be in all kinds of trouble if it doesn't rain.

Judging by their recent pace in wet, they will be in trouble anyways

You never can tell with Vettel, he has put in some decent wet times in the past (notably with Toro Rosso), his problems this year only seem to stem from ebbing confidence against an unrelenting competitor.
Kimi on the other hand has always been a dud in the wet, so his case is sealed.

Of course, all of the above will only be useful if it rains.

[Andres125sx]

My favourite track ever!!

It was better when cars were able to chase each other, and specially when 130R was a proper corner where cars couldn´t go flat out, but still my favourite combination of different corners and straights in the calendar

Edit: Felt the need to watch Alonso-Schumacher overtake at 130R again, man I still feel the shock it was when watched it live

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qGdmWq4ooQo

From this one it looks easy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FuDokYf2u94

I dont mean it wasn´t a good overtake but Schumacher was so slow at that moment. Look how the McLaren behind him wants to overtake him going left and right.

That´s not because he was slow, but because Alonso pass forced him to take a poor line from the inside so he had to slow down more than usual at the corner, giving Kimi, whose line was not compromised, a chance.

It was an epic overtake, not too many drivers would dare to do that at a 300km/h corner, let alone with a rival like Schumacher

[Phil]

Ok but answer me this: when was the last time we had more than one stop in a race (other than for safety cars)?

I think Ferrari’s strategy is predicated on the fact that one set of mediums is plenty - particularly if they can qualify on the mid tyre, as has often been the case - and so their main focus has been to set the car up for pole and hence track position. The RB strategy from Vettel’s championship years, you might say

Let me illustrate:

Mercedes have: M [2], S [4], SS [7]
Ferrari have: M [1], S [2], SS [10]

This means that Ferrari have no way to test the Medium tire during practice to see if it is any good and how it performs. They either don't run it at all and save it for the race or they use it and then it's gone. If they don't run it, they may find themselves in a race situation where they have no idea if they should use it or not, because they have no idea how it performs.

Mercedes on the other hand, will be able to test them and keep a set for the race if they want.

Now lets look at the soft tires. Mercedes have 4 for each of their drivers, Ferrari only 2. Assuming both teams want to have one fresh set available for the race, Mercedes have 3 left for practice and qualifying, Ferrari only one per car. Will they test the tire during practice? Or keep it for qualifying?

Either way, Ferrari have two cars each, so they can test the medium tires on one of their cars (they probably will) and save it on the other, but it's still a gamble and for the driver that tests it, the tire is lost for the race.

Ferrari have obviously gambled on a 1-stop race, qualifying on the SS and then going onto the S tire. Fair enough. It most likely will be the most likeliest outcome.

But what will they do if a safety car hits 1/3rd of the race and it's too early to put on the S tire? Will they have a Medium tire available? Will it be any good? Will they know that, if they haven't done any test runs on it to gather data? Mercedes will have and will know exactly what to expect and what to do. However, on the contrary, Mercedes (obviously) will have gotten less running from practice on the SS, so perhaps they will have less data to find the perfect qualifying set-up.

[notsofast]

Will it be any good? Will they know that, if they haven't done any test runs on it to gather data?

My interpretation is that Ferrari believe that the data they get from their simulator is quite good, and that any testing on Friday won't add anything meaningful. Maybe Mercedes needs to start worrying about how good Ferrari's simulator is?

[Phil]

If their simulation is that good, they might as well not run in FP1, FP2 and FP3 and save the tires and engines for QF and the race, no?

Imagine how much mileage you could save for added performance during the races.

[notsofast]

Well, I was referring to the harder compounds, which are perhaps a bit easier to simulate.

[basti313]

Will it be any good? Will they know that, if they haven't done any test runs on it to gather data?

My interpretation is that Ferrari believe that the data they get from their simulator is quite good, and that any testing on Friday won't add anything meaningful. Maybe Mercedes needs to start worrying about how good Ferrari's simulator is?

Mercedes worrying

What we see in the tire choices is nothing else but dictated by the normal performance we see all year: If Ferrari starts from pole or gets ahead in the first lap, they have a chance to win. The undercut is not as powerful this year as years before and if Merc is in the dirty air they will not pass. So it simply did not make sense to setup for the harder compounds.
This is now taken to grave with the performance swing...no way to beat Merc in Q in the last race and maybe even a thread by the Bulls.

Furthermore looking at the data from last year: The chance is very high, that no one competitive will use the Medium during the race.

[dans79]

Well, I was referring to the harder compounds, which are perhaps a bit easier to simulate.

Simulations cant tell you how the track surface has changed since last year.