COVID-19 could affect more races this year.

[TAG]

I just wish the markets would calm... I'm down $336k last week.....

Come now, you didn't see this coming?

[Zynerji]

I just wish the markets would calm... I'm down $336k last week.....

Come now, you didn't see this coming?

I broke away from the Condor strat, and just moved into 6 week calls when the seriousness became apparent.

I still have 4 weeks to recover... So its not the end of the world. It just looks like sh1t at the moment...

The AMD nestegg is still hugely intact, so I'm not panicking. Yet.

[MtthsMlw]

[DChemTech]

Now that the Qatar MotoGP race is cancelled it is widely expected that the F1 Bahrein GP which is close geographically to Qatar to be dropped as well. I predict the 2020 F1 season will begin in Europe at the Dutch GP in Zandvoort .

Let's hope there's no panic in the Netherlands by then. Currently, it's a mixed bag. Most people out on the street/interviewed in the news don't seem to bother and the statement "it's just an overpowered flu" comes by quite a lot. There's currently one confirmed case in my hometown, but it's as crowded on the streets as normal.

Companies, on the other hand, are in panic mode here. I'm currently mandated to work from home, which is fine for me - now I can do my CFD work with better coffee - but does have a big impact for my more experimentally oriented colleagues (which are most). Sport events, so far, seem to be OK. but yeah, things can change rapidly.

[wickedz50]

With Emirates shutting Dubai to Bahrain Flights it looks difficult for FIA to go ahead with Bahrain GP. Logistically does not look good if one top airline stops flying.

[Phil]

Sorry, that is just wrong. The fatality rate for influenza A is between 1 and 2% each year. If you include the other strains of flu then that skews the figure.

Influenza A a fatality of 1% to 2% a year? I find that very hard to believe - from what i have seen and read it’s 10 to 20 times lower. How did you arrive at that figure anyway?

googling for 5 seconds i get this:
https://www.livescience.com/new-coronav ... h-flu.html

In the study published Feb. 18 in the China CDC Weekly, researchers found a death rate from COVID-19 to be around 2.3% in mainland China. That's much higher than the death rate linked to flu, which is typically around 0.1% in the U.S., according to The New York Times.

Even so, the death rate for COVID-19 varied by location and an individual’s age, among other factors. For instance, in Hubei Province, the epicenter of the outbreak, the death rate reached 2.9%; in other provinces of China, that rate was just 0.4%. In addition, older adults have been hit the hardest. The death rate soars to 14.8% in those 80 and older; among those ages 70 to 79, the COVID-19 death rate in China seems to be about 8%; it’s 3.6% for those ages 60 to 69; 1.3% for 50 to 59; 0.4% for the age group 40 to 49; and just 0.2% for people ages 10 to 39. Nobody 9 and under has died of this coronavirus to date.

so 0.1% seems to be the norm, unless we're missing something major

I was replying to adrianjordan's claim that the flu (specifically Influenza A) has a fatality rate of 1-2%. From all links I found, the figure is 10-20 times lower (0.1% to 0.2%) and that's not even factoring in that many people who have/had the flu don't report it.

COVID-19 so far has a far higher fatality rate (to be fair, which will decrease as it spreads) but still.

As an example, and based on numbers from my local newspaper (source apparently: John Hopkins Univerity numbers and the WHO):

China: 77'114 infected (from those healed: 44'473), fatalities: 2912 -> 3.78%
Switzerland: 28 infected (from those healed: 1), fatalities: 0 -> 0.00%
Italy: 1'777 infected (from those healed: 83), fatalities: 34 -> 1.91%
Rest of the world *: 8'914 (from those healed: 601), fatalities: 132 -> 1.48%

* I assume these numbers are infected outside China, but without Switzerland and Italy.

For an accurate comparison, one would have to include the number in each age-group, but I think it's pretty undisputed so far that COVID-19 is in fact deadlier than the common flu.

[AMG.Tzan]

In terms of health it's the best decision to cancel these races both MotoGP and Formula 1...although in the Qatar MotoGP race it had more to do with traveling restrictions and not health!

What i find stupid though...is that neither Formula 1 nor MotoGP has a backup plan! There are so many race tracks ready to race...why should we wait 1 month until the next race?? Just fill the gap with a track that's ready to race! Imola for example said it's ready to race...go on and find a way to race there!

Or just trade places with a round from the end of the championship! Russia for example or Brazil or USA...there are solutions...but they don't seem quick enough to find them! Only MotoGP not racing yet Moto2 and Moto3 going ahead is so silly...just find a different way...i don't know speak to the government or travel through different countries!

Btw i don't see either Bahrain or Vietnam going ahead...Zandvoort will be the 2nd round of the championship! Like watching WEC...one race per 2 months!

[DChemTech]

One of the issues with flu is the registration. in NL, the 'additional deaths' during a flu epidemic are typically in the range 2500-5000. (but some years it's around 0, others around 10000). Typically around 0.5 million flu cases are registered. So that would imply a death rate of 0.5 - 1 % (2500 to 5000/500.000). But there are likely a lot of unregistered cases. People that feel under the weather somewhat, but still work. Or are only symptomatic in the weekend and remain unregistered, etc. So a real rate of .1-.2% is not unlikely.

Question is then how many Corona incidents remain unregistered. That could substantially alter statistics. Some people might have such mild symptoms they don't register. As was mentioned earlier in this topic, some people might deliberately stay under the radar in fear of the far-reaching effects of being infected in e.g. China. But the similarity of symptoms to regular flu could also play a role. In NL, we had a case being hospitalized uncontained and undiagnosed for a long time, because there was no reason for suspicion. Flu-like symptoms without any known contact to a corona carrier. Which also implies others in the chain of infection without knowing they're carriers. And then there's the aforementioned immunization landscape - this corona strain is relatively free to roam compared to recurring strains. So really, we need a lot more time before we can comment on mortality with any proper confidence - and if the thing becomes endemic, it's quite likely to go down in mortality due to immunization (and due to mutation to more infectious, often going hand in hand with less lethal).

[3jawchuck]

Swapping and changing events is not going to happen I would think, it's just too hard.
People have tickets, they have booked time off, they have arranged their lives around the upcoming event they want to go see. Cancelling is "easy", refunds will be made and people's travel insurance should pay for and soften other losses. It will still be a massive financial burden on the venue and organiser if an event is cancelled though, especially for non-permanent tracks.

As for replacement events, sure why not, if they think they can get enough spectators and other income to justify the expense.

[Phil]

Question is then how many Corona incidents remain unregistered. That could substantially alter statistics. Some people might have such mild symptoms they don't register.

With the current paranoia going on, at least in Switzerland, but I assume this applies for most countries, anyone showing even the slightest symptoms are reporting and getting themselves checked for COVID-19 infection. I therefore assume the COVID-19 numbers are more 'accurate' than common flu numbers simply because not everyone who has the flu actually reports it, goes to a doctor etc. They simply stay home and recover (without fear of dying from it).

[DChemTech]

Question is then how many Corona incidents remain unregistered. That could substantially alter statistics. Some people might have such mild symptoms they don't register.

With the current paranoia going on, at least in Switzerland, but I assume this applies for most countries, anyone showing even the slightest symptoms are reporting and getting themselves checked for COVID-19 infection. I therefore assume the COVID-19 numbers are more 'accurate' than common flu numbers simply because not everyone who has the flu actually reports it, goes to a doctor etc. They simply stay home and recover (without fear of dying from it).

I absolutely second that, and absolutely don't want to imply the mortality rate of COVID might be as low as the regular flu. Based on the best information currently available, it's certainly higher. My main point was that it's very difficult to assess how much higher as, despite all the efforts and panic, registration will not be 100% complete. Out of the 10 or 11 cases NL now has, some 3 seem to be 'inexplicable' in terms of contact to infected persons, which means there are (in this very limited set of patients) very likely unregistered cases. On the other hand, there are worldwide many ill persons that are dead nor recovered, which will also impact mortality (do you calculate dead/total or dead/healed?). Similar, the here-reported factor 10 uncertainty in the mortality of the flu could very well stem from one source solely counting registered cases, while another might estimate total cases.

Anyway, with the current higher-yet-uncertain mortality rate, and general novelty of the disease compared to the 'regular' flu (or existing corona-colds), I expect that governments, companies and organizing bodies will make their decisions siding to the more cautious option, and that could in principle have implications for every race on the calendar.

[marmer]

Wonder if it's possible for venues to move about. Russia used to be early some of the European venues whilst cold might be more suitable if brahain and Vietnam get postponed.

[the EDGE]

Wonder if it's possible for venues to move about. Russia used to be early some of the European venues whilst cold might be more suitable if brahain and Vietnam get postponed.

They haven’t even managed to reschedule 1 race, let alone many

It’s not just a case of changing the dates, hotels & transport etc. Has to be booked well in advance along and the biggest headache is spectators who again have booked travel & hotels etc. Who won’t get a penny back for this so would have to pay twice

[NathanOlder]

I have just read that a case of the CoronaVirus has been confirmed at a business 500 meters from my house here in Maidstone , Kent. It has arrived.

[DChemTech]

Wonder if it's possible for venues to move about. Russia used to be early some of the European venues whilst cold might be more suitable if brahain and Vietnam get postponed.

They haven’t even managed to reschedule 1 race, let alone many

It’s not just a case of changing the dates, hotels & transport etc. Has to be booked well in advance along and the biggest headache is spectators who again have booked travel & hotels etc. Who won’t get a penny back for this so would have to pay twice

I also wonder what's the point of moving. At this moment, the outbreak is too unpredictable to move races. The new destination may just as well be an issue in a months time or so, while a currently contaminated region could be clean by the time the circus arrives. And while there are good reasons to assume the virus is temperature sensitive, I'm not sure if that aspect has been sufficiently confirmed to inform alterations to the calendar. At this point it's just shooting in the dark for any race - whether it concerns keeping, moving or cancelling. Best thing to me just seems to keep preparing, unless there's a really good reason not to (for example, if the place is still a hotbed within two weeks of lights out)