COVID-19 could affect more races this year.

[nzjrs]

But the question is how long can they suppress it for? You can't stay off work and isolate for ever. There is talk of China lifting these restrictions and it is predicted there will be a massive spike of cases in the 2nd wave of the virus.

It's a good question - the countries that have learned the most during the suppression phase will have better models to estimate what will happen when they start to move to the next phase of dealing with the problem.

[geogate]

Now 4 Haas team members have symptoms, if their tests are positive all the team members they've been in contact with will have to be quarantined, local health people seem to be saying

What I don't understand is how come they seemed fine before they left, yet suddenly when they land they're all showing suspicious simptoms? Those mechacnics and engineers are all young and fit people and I don't think they would act neglicenty coming over if they were sick.

well, they will probably have left at the weekend, so there is a time lag there. My guess as to what has happened is that there would have been a directive from the australian authorities regarding presenting if anyone has symptoms that "could" include those associated with C-19, so those who believed they just had a cold may have been required to present. There was certainly a view (an incorrect one) that if one had a runny nose, they were ok - I heard that said from people who were at Barcelona

[Wynters]

I think there's a significant difference between Greenland and Singapore, or Italy and the DRC. Population density, information dissemination tools, local culture and healthcare provision will all play a significant role (see the recent Ebola outbreaks as an example).

My posts were a play in 3 acts. If we all sit there on our thumbs 'its just a cold', then we all follow the curve because the innate dynamics of the virus will dominate (as it did with Ebola, nice and deadly that one). The countries that have managed to bend the curve have taken suppression of transmission seriously.

I would recommend slightly more fact in your early acts, in that case, as otherwise you might find the denouement has been robbed of weight.

There is also a world of difference between ignoring it and locking down the entire country. Both of those will have significant impacts that will kill people, simply in different ways. Each country has to walk a delicate tightrope.

Whilst I used Ebola as an example of how it spreads and impacts different countries differently depending on variations in socio, economic and geogrpahic environment, it's not a good comparison with our current situation as it's too deadly. It'll be interesting to see how our actions impact which mutations of the virus take root. It's possible it will mutuate to match Ebola's mortality rate (although that willl significantly hinder it's ability to propagate), but hopefully the approach of trying to limit transmission will see the strains that emphasise transmission becoming dominant. Yes, it means that those strains will likely become endemic to the global populace, but it will also significantly lower the mortality rate and, as we're in pandemic status already, that seems preferable. If nothing else, Healtchare systems will be better positioned to respond if they have a sustained period of time to treat people.

[nzjrs]

I would recommend slightly more fact in your early acts, in that case, as otherwise you might find the denouement has been robbed of weight.

I'm not going to bicker. I post only facts / data / papers / plots. But I can only show that data. In the end I know it's like a play or a movie - some people see The Big Lebowski as overrated garbage. In the end, the data will be what the data will be. We know the broad scopes of the underlying dynamics now, the rest of what happens is the dude's guess of how people and governments will respond.

[the EDGE]

I think there's a significant difference between Greenland and Singapore, or Italy and the DRC. Population density, information dissemination tools, local culture and healthcare provision will all play a significant role (see the recent Ebola outbreaks as an example).

My posts were a play in 3 acts. If we all sit there on our thumbs 'its just a cold', then we all follow the curve because the innate dynamics of the virus will dominate (as it did with Ebola, nice and deadly that one). The countries that have managed to bend the curve have taken suppression of transmission seriously.

I would recommend slightly more fact in your early acts, in that case, as otherwise you might find the denouement has been robbed of weight.

There is also a world of difference between ignoring it and locking down the entire country. Both of those will have significant impacts that will kill people, simply in different ways. Each country has to walk a delicate tightrope.

Whilst I used Ebola as an example of how it spreads and impacts different countries differently depending on variations in socio, economic and geogrpahic environment, it's not a good comparison with our current situation as it's too deadly. It'll be interesting to see how our actions impact which mutations of the virus take root. It's possible it will mutuate to match Ebola's mortality rate (although that willl significantly hinder it's ability to propagate), but hopefully the approach of trying to limit transmission will see the strains that emphasise transmission becoming dominant. Yes, it means that those strains will likely become endemic to the global populace, but it will also significantly lower the mortality rate and, as we're in pandemic status already, that seems preferable. If nothing else, Healtchare systems will be better positioned to respond if they have a sustained period of time to treat people.

Ebola is a poor example, it is nowhere near as contagious as Covid-19. It may have been more deadly but covid-19 will kill many many more

[geogate]

I think there's a significant difference between Greenland and Singapore, or Italy and the DRC. Population density, information dissemination tools, local culture and healthcare provision will all play a significant role (see the recent Ebola outbreaks as an example).

My post was a play in 3 acts. If we all sit there on our thumbs 'its just a cold', then we all follow the curve because the innate dynamics of the virus will dominate (as it did with Ebola, nice and deadly that one). The countries that have managed to bend the curve have taken suppression of transmission seriously.

But the question is how long can they suppress it for? You can't stay off work and isolate for ever. There is talk of China lifting these restrictions and it is predicted there will be a massive spike of cases in the 2nd wave of the virus.

The strategy is to do all one can to prevent peaks that will overwhelm health services. These kind of outbreaks typically have waves, and that is actually good news when one is past any ability to contain - you are just trying to encourage its natural behavior and hope you have sufficient ICU beds

[Tommy Cookers]

like no doubt others of us I have chronic pain relieved by that global painkiller here called Paracetamol (Advil in US ?)

our planned-to-the-eyeballs NHS says there is a 'shortage' - because the active ingredient is made in China !!

[AJI]

like no doubt others of us I have chronic pain relieved by that global painkiller here called Paracetamol (Advil in US ?)

our planned-to-the-eyeballs NHS says there is a 'shortage' - because the active ingredient is made in China !!

Paracetamol! I'll send you a box if you send me some toilet paper?

[Hail22]

https://www.just-auto.com/news/pirelli- ... 94177.aspx

It's unknown if this worker is in the racing department/Formula 1 tyre manufacturing as of yet as the news is quite fresh.

[izzy]

https://www.just-auto.com/news/pirelli- ... 94177.aspx

It's unknown if this worker is in the racing department/Formula 1 tyre manufacturing as of yet as the news is quite fresh.

Scary, but kind of inevitable too really

[Wass85]

I've got a great idea, just pick a good track and have the full season run there. That way we can isolate all teams and have the full number of races.

[nzjrs]

It'll be interesting to see how our actions impact which mutations of the virus take root. It's possible it will mutuate to match Ebola's mortality rate (although that willl significantly hinder it's ability to propagate), but hopefully the approach of trying to limit transmission will see the strains that emphasise transmission becoming dominant. Yes, it means that those strains will likely become endemic to the global populace, but it will also significantly lower the mortality rate and, as we're in pandemic status already, that seems preferable. If nothing else, Healtchare systems will be better positioned to respond if they have a sustained period of time to treat people.

One can experiment exploring the current mutations here https://nextstrain.org/ncov

[haza]

McLaren have pulled out due to a team member having coronavirus

[AJI]

F1, DONE!

[Ringleheim]

NBA suspending entire season as of right now; NCAA men's basketball tournament to be played with no crowds; this is going to get lot worse before it gets better. I wonder if the Australian GP will be the only race we see this year, at least with a crowd!