COVID-19 could affect more races this year.

[Jolle]

To relate this back to F1...... tenuously and radomly

I see the UK response as analogous to what F1 did in Melbourne - weak and leaderless - or at least people don't believe what the leader is saying and so go ahead with what they think the most likely outcome would be. If I compare that to Austria, the government has taken a very strong role and the mood is positive, less panic, and confidence is high.

Politics is the art of the sale as much as it is the act of leading, and the UK isn't buying what Boris is selling. They look like they can get a better deal elsewhere. Even if that deal is panic.

If the UK is F1, then let's 'wait and see' with all the races this year. If another country was F1 and cancelled immediately all the races before summer break before and made a committed plan to salvage half/a super-season, which would be better for F1 finances. If F1 is an economy, which works better (I don't know).

What would Bernie do in this situation?

What Bernie would do? acting like a clown publicly while behind close doors suing every party that cancelled an event.

[the EDGE]

An explanation of why our government have not placed the U.K. into a quarantine lockdown yet

[GPR-A]

Geesh. It's pretty clear by now the virus is slowly disappearing in China, and this will eventually also happen in Europe.
F1's already been postponed to may, and no race except for Austrailia, which has been cancelled anyway, would have too much of a problem finding another spot during the year.
Spain can even be postponed by a week, by then we're in the third week of may, and the virus will be eradicated by then.
Bahrain is relatively close to Azerbaijan and there's space in between to host the GP.
Vietnam can take place either a week before Singapore, or have Marina bay race a week earlier and have 'Nam take that weekend.
Host China before the Japanese GP and have the Dutch GP before the Belgian GP.

What a huge amount of exegeration in 'ooh 2020 is done for' without any reasonable base whatsoever. You guys must be the same people that fight over a pack of toilet paper.

Besides the current chaos and impact of COVID-19, you do know that, while all other teams have their factories running, Ferrari and most likely Alpha Tauri could not have been running? That means, it's an unfair competition between the teams who have been working and those who aren't. Does it make sense to have a season where one of the protagonists is handicapped?

Is it fair competition when one or two teams get a big chunk of money from the organiser just because of who they are? In a sport that requires money to succeed, that's a bigger handicap on those that don't get the payment, and certainly isn't "fair competition".

Two wrongs can't make one right.

Call me when there is a thread to discuss the F1 payments structure fairness.

[nzjrs]

An explanation of why our government have not placed the U.K. into a quarantine lockdown yet

Hahaha, I saw this and thought it was a joke? I don't think people dislike the UK plan because it is to complicated to understand. Come on, it's hilariously trivial.

[the EDGE]

An explanation of why our government have not placed the U.K. into a quarantine lockdown yet

Hahaha, I saw this and thought it was a joke? I don't think people dislike the UK plan because it is to complicated to understand. Come on, it's hilariously trivial.

You have a better way to explain?

[kimetic]

You probably mean 12 to 18 months, but the message is clear. 1-2 years for a proper mass produced vaccine is also my (unprofessional) best guess of the situation.

Oh! Where did 'years' come from? edited. Yes the testing seems to mean that's the timescale and no easy way of shortcutting it.

[Phil]

An explanation of why our government have not placed the U.K. into a quarantine lockdown yet

What the bloke in the video does not understand (and neither most governments) is that there's an incubation period where people already have it, don't know it yet, because they aren't showing symptoms - but they are still spreading it and that exponentially.

In other words, everything that you are counting now, is at best the state ~10+ days ago. If you put everyone into lockdown now, you are stopping people spreading it (thus less numbers) and those that already have it, will endure it and survive it while not spreading it to more people. Any reaction the governments take will only show a change in the numbers ~10 days down the road.

If you have 4 digits now, the number of people who already have it (and are continuing to spread it) are already possibly in the 5 if not 6 digits already.

[nzjrs]

You have a better way to explain?

Speaking personally, the short version is; The black-swan view is to eliminate low probability events with catastrophic outcomes - this entire thing bets on herd immunity actually being effective for this strain - which to my scientific knowledge has not been demonstrated to a sufficient degree.

There are other second order arguments as to why the plan is silly,

0) assumes minimal negative lifetime health outcomes for cured persons (not yet demonstrated)
1) it doesn't make sense if you health system already at near full capacity
2) people have to trust it and not panic themselves or act in ways that work against the plan
3) it bets on the second wave being larger and that the health system can then handle this one then
4) current comparative evidence of the effects of quarentine etc in differential European cities show it works.

TLDR; to discount the current known working one should need a higher burden of evidence than what has been shown to support the UK position. At least IMO

[the EDGE]

What the bloke in the video does not understand (and neither most governments) is that there's an incubation period where people already have it, don't know it yet, because they aren't showing symptoms - but they are still spreading it and that exponentially.

In other words, everything that you are counting now, is at best the state ~10+ days ago. If you put everyone into lockdown now, you are stopping people spreading it (thus less numbers) and those that already have it, will endure it and survive it while not spreading it to more people. Any reaction the governments take will only show a change in the numbers ~10 days down the road.

If you have 4 digits now, the number of people who already have it (and are continuing to spread it) are already possibly in the 5 if not 6 digits already.

Responding to more than 1,600 comments, Isaacs said: “Just an attempt to explain the UK government response to COVID19. Wasn't expecting it to go ‘viral’ or I'd have worn a better shirt.

“This strategy is not my Idea, I'm a podiatrist not an epidemiologist, but its a very good time to listen to, and amplify the people who ARE experts. By which I mean people like the excellent Prof Whitty and Sir Patrick Vallance (as opposed to all the overnight virologists I see in the comments).”

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/simple-video- ... 46004.html

I think what a lot of people forget is that this virus is not going away. At some point we probably are all going to get it

That is a big problem, as at present only around 160,000 people in the world have caught it... How many million people live in your country?

[the EDGE]

You have a better way to explain?

Speaking personally, the short version is; The black-swan view is to eliminate low probability events with catastrophic outcomes - this entire thing bets on herd immunity actually being effective for this strain - which to my scientific knowledge has not been demonstrated to a sufficient degree.

There are other second order arguments as to why the plan is silly,

0) assumes minimal negative lifetime health outcomes for cured persons (not yet demonstrated)
1) it doesn't make sense if you health system already at near full capacity
2) people have to trust it and not panic themselves or act in ways that work against the plan
3) it bets on the second wave being larger and that the health system can then handle this one then
4) current comparative evidence of the effects of quarentine etc in differential European cities show it works.

TLDR; to discount the current known working one should need a higher burden of evidence than what has been shown to support the UK position. At least IMO

did you watch the video? its not about herd-immunity, its about not panicking now as the time for quarantine is not yet upon us but will be soon.

[henry]

I think some repurposed drugs will be available by autumn. But yet, a drug from scratch would take 10 years.

Yep, there’s been at least one, small scale, trial in Italy of a drug used to treat Rheumatoid Arthritis. It seems to have been effective. Next step is a larger scale test.

An advantage for countries that are behind in the arrival of the virus is that all of the scientific work will likely bear fruits earlier in their cycle, that is if the delayed start isn’t squandered by the strategy to contain the spread.

[nzjrs]

did you watch the video? its not about herd-immunity, its about not panicking now as the time for quarantine is not yet upon us but will be soon.

Yeah, I describe criticisms of the whole strategy in its entirety.

[e30ernest]

I would really like to see how well the "herd immunity" strategy goes. I also found this regarding UK's strategy:

[Phil]

“This strategy is not my Idea, I'm a podiatrist not an epidemiologist, but its a very good time to listen to, and amplify the people who ARE experts. By which I mean people like the excellent Prof Whitty and Sir Patrick Vallance (as opposed to all the overnight virologists I see in the comments).”

More and more virologists are becoming vocal and doing the 'math' (last one from our University hospital of Zurich). If you count numbers or are using those numbers, one should know the proper context.

1.) To have cases you need to test for them
2.) You can only count what you test (e.g. governments only counting ppl with severe symptoms = actual cases are a lot higher)
3.) It takes time for people to become symptomatic (5-10 days), then it takes time to develop severe symptoms (if they ever come) and then it also takes time to get a test and receive the result back. Meaning by the time the numbers are published, you're already way past 10 days since the point of infection and becoming a carrier.

[izzy]

I think what a lot of people forget is that this virus is not going away. At some point we probably are all going to get it
That is a big problem, as at present only around 160,000 people in the world have caught it... How many million people live in your country?

This is the key part of the message isn't it: the contents of his bucket are everyone. Everyone will get the covid-19 infection eventually, since there is no vaccine, is what he's saying. Therefore the rate at which we all get it is what we can control.

The action video with water just makes it more compelling than words, which are just the same as Just-a-Fan has been typing.