COVID-19 could affect more races this year.

[Just_a_fan]

So back to the tipic. What matters Is the government response

No. What matters is the response of the people. Individuals taking responsibility for their actions.

Sure. In dreamland nobody needs hints informations and laws

In Italy, the police have apparently charged over 40,000 people with being where they shouldn't be during the lock down. Including people with the virus who are going out to shops etc.

No point having a lock down if individuals are going to go out and do silly things. Hence the need for personal responsibility.

There's got to be a reason why Italy has been hit so hard by this, particularly the number of deaths. Compare to, say, Germany where the number of cases is quite high (about 1/3 of the number in Italy) but deaths are very low (fewer than 1% of those in Italy). That's a huge disparity. Why? Germany isn't in lock down, by the way.

[Just_a_fan]

It s Just that other countries have been faster to adapt to italian contagion lesson, learning fast that between zero victims and full contagion there are few crucial weeks Even few days.

So some prefeer to come back to an isolated country that promossa to adapt in the future than to stay in another One where the Leaders are perceived as letting the virus do its work

Why would anyone rush to Italy at the moment? They have a death rate from the virus that is much higher than anywhere else. They have fewer than half as many cases as China but nearly as many deaths. 2.5 times as many cases as Spain but over 4 times as many deaths.

What is going to determine the survival of people is not the the government's response but the nature of the country itself. Italy has very different social structures to the UK so why would a system that is used in one country work in another? In the UK people tend to live more apart anyway so it's easier to adapt to a regime of "don't go too close to others". In Italy, as in many parts of China, generations of a family live together in many cases. Italy is probably the perfect environment for a contagious virus.

These are speculations. While here It s commom to not leave the elders alone we don't live anymore under the same roof from generations.

A report by the Istituto Superiore di Sanita into the deaths in Italy of 2,003 people confirmed to be positive for coronavirus found that three regions, all in the north, were by far the worst hit.

Lombardy accounted for 71%, Emilia-Romagna 17% and Veneto 3.9%. None of 13 other regions had more than 2% of the total, and 10 of them had less than 1%.

Some studies point to the large number of elderly in the affected regions, and that a large proportion of 18-34s live at home with them. Different demographics in other nations may help to keep the death toll lower.

from https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51959243

[subcritical71]

I suppose what is meant is that while governments can keep up with all kinds of rules, in the end what matters is whether people follow them. Probably, the regulations could be more relaxed if people did. So I do agree that people's response matters more. But governments need to provide the right cues.

This... I self quarantined prior to my government leadership recommending it. Since I work with Chinese co-workers on a daily basis I had a head start on the education and seeing what was coming aspect. Already being setup to work from home also made the decision even easier.

[Big Tea]

No. What matters is the response of the people. Individuals taking responsibility for their actions.

Sure. In dreamland nobody needs hints informations and laws

In Italy, the police have apparently charged over 40,000 people with being where they shouldn't be during the lock down. Including people with the virus who are going out to shops etc.

No point having a lock down if individuals are going to go out and do silly things. Hence the need for personal responsibility.

There's got to be a reason why Italy has been hit so hard by this, particularly the number of deaths. Compare to, say, Germany where the number of cases is quite high (about 1/3 of the number in Italy) but deaths are very low (fewer than 1% of those in Italy). That's a huge disparity. Why? Germany isn't in lock down, by the way.

Huge factors in this are the average age of population, or of those infected, and how the figures are taken.
if an area has a population of 100 (units) and everyone is teased, it is a true figure. if only 50 are tested, 20 or more of the untested could actually be 'cases' which should be added to the number before division.
It seems by some studies that up to 40% of the affected do not get hit hard enough to report it as a hit and youngsters are sometimes completely asymptomatic.

[mmred]

Why would anyone rush to Italy at the moment? They have a death rate from the virus that is much higher than anywhere else. They have fewer than half as many cases as China but nearly as many deaths. 2.5 times as many cases as Spain but over 4 times as many deaths.

What is going to determine the survival of people is not the the government's response but the nature of the country itself. Italy has very different social structures to the UK so why would a system that is used in one country work in another? In the UK people tend to live more apart anyway so it's easier to adapt to a regime of "don't go too close to others". In Italy, as in many parts of China, generations of a family live together in many cases. Italy is probably the perfect environment for a contagious virus.

These are speculations. While here It s commom to not leave the elders alone we don't live anymore under the same roof from generations.

A report by the Istituto Superiore di Sanita into the deaths in Italy of 2,003 people confirmed to be positive for coronavirus found that three regions, all in the north, were by far the worst hit.

Lombardy accounted for 71%, Emilia-Romagna 17% and Veneto 3.9%. None of 13 other regions had more than 2% of the total, and 10 of them had less than 1%.

Some studies point to the large number of elderly in the affected regions, and that a large proportion of 18-34s live at home with them. Different demographics in other nations may help to keep the death toll lower.

from https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51959243

First you Say that It s people a fault
Then you presente the studi reporting that its the average Age
Decide


Fact Is Italy gas bigger numbers Just because It was the First hit Three weeks before any other euro country and It didnt had time to react like china cause we re a democracy. But now things Will improbe. It s a fact all the other countries besides uk adopted the same italian strategy with some weeks of advantage seeing Italy so their numbers Will be lower. Uk Is an Island ...the contagion Will be delayed even more. We llsee

[kimetic]

We (in the UK) can't get a food delivery for 3 weeks so we'll have to go out. All the delivery slots are taken, older people are being prioritised, quite rightly but so we can't self-isolate. Many others will be in the same position. So probably the UK is still on an upward curve. I don't feel like sitting in judgment on Italians at this point: they could simply be further along the trajectory.

[Big Tea]

We (in the UK) can't get a food delivery for 3 weeks so we'll have to go out. All the delivery slots are taken, older people are being prioritised, quite rightly but so we can't self-isolate. Many others will be in the same position. So probably the UK is still on an upward curve. I don't feel like sitting in judgment on Italians at this point: they could simply be further along the trajectory.

Iceland are doing 'oldies only' 8 to 9 am. You still have to go out, but shelves should be full and only older people there, so they should be taking precautions.

As you say, we should not judge anyone. Each acts as they think best and only time will tell which is best for which group. Noone is going to be flippant about it.

[kimetic]

Iceland are doing 'oldies only' 8 to 9 am. You still have to go out, but shelves should be full and only older people there, so they should be taking precautions.

As you say, we should not judge anyone. Each acts as they think best and only time will tell which is best for which group. Noone is going to be flippant about it.

Thanks, though we're not quite in the old age group, and if I understand it correctly the oldies' hour is to save them from the hustle more than reduce infection risk. Anyway we're pretty much resigned to getting it at some point and then it's a question of how badly. We do exercise and are reasonably in shape and eat sensibly/vegetarian, so here's hoping!

There does seem to be a dose effect too, though I'm note sure, but we're going on the basis that a small exposure is probably better than either no exposure or heavy exposure.

[mmred]

Iceland are doing 'oldies only' 8 to 9 am. You still have to go out, but shelves should be full and only older people there, so they should be taking precautions.

As you say, we should not judge anyone. Each acts as they think best and only time will tell which is best for which group. Noone is going to be flippant about it.

Thanks, though we're not quite in the old age group, and if I understand it correctly the oldies' hour is to save them from the hustle more than reduce infection risk. Anyway we're pretty much resigned to getting it at some point and then it's a question of how badly. We do exercise and are reasonably in shape and eat sensibly/vegetarian, so here's hoping!

There does seem to be a dose effect too, though I'm note sure, but we're going on the basis that a small exposure is probably better than either no exposure or heavy exposure.

How can you get low exposure? Once you get the virus It attacks. It s not some dust particle....

Till there s no vaccine the Only solution Is be healthy and get zero exposure

[les arcs]

Just reading in my local French paper, the Var Matin, that Prince Albert of Monaco has just tested positive for the coronavirus.

[Big Tea]

Iceland are doing 'oldies only' 8 to 9 am. You still have to go out, but shelves should be full and only older people there, so they should be taking precautions.

As you say, we should not judge anyone. Each acts as they think best and only time will tell which is best for which group. Noone is going to be flippant about it.

Thanks, though we're not quite in the old age group, and if I understand it correctly the oldies' hour is to save them from the hustle more than reduce infection risk. Anyway we're pretty much resigned to getting it at some point and then it's a question of how badly. We do exercise and are reasonably in shape and eat sensibly/vegetarian, so here's hoping!

There does seem to be a dose effect too, though I'm note sure, but we're going on the basis that a small exposure is probably better than either no exposure or heavy exposure.

How can you get low exposure? Once you get the virus It attacks. It s not some dust particle....

Till there s no vaccine the Only solution Is be healthy and get zero exposure

Yip, avoid it like the plague. Literally.

[gshevlin]

On broader topics...F1 has to postpone the new tech regulations. The teams cannot afford to be spending money on 2 generations of cars this year. If I am F1, I would mandate a regulation freeze for next season, and push back the implementation date for the tech regulations to 2022. But I would still introduce the cost cap next year, so that the better funded teams do not get to spend like a drunken sailor next year, effectively spending on 2 generations of cars.

[Phil]

There's got to be a reason why Italy has been hit so hard by this, particularly the number of deaths. Compare to, say, Germany where the number of cases is quite high (about 1/3 of the number in Italy) but deaths are very low (fewer than 1% of those in Italy). That's a huge disparity. Why? Germany isn't in lock down, by the way.

The answer to this question is very simple to answer:

- Italy has been hit first, thus is 14-18 days ahead of other countries. Because we are talking about an exponential spread, the number of days matters significantly.

- Italy, due to fact that they are so far ahead is facing overloaded health institutes. Not enough resources equals more people without help.

- The infection takes time to develop its severity. It's not as if everyone gets infected, shows symptoms within a weak and dies. There's a certain progress to it. Some have mild symptoms, others more severe. Regardless, those who have it, seem to be facing a 14+ days struggle to beat it. Some fall seriously ill during this time and die (organ failure).

- Because Italy was the first within Europe, most governments, even those with little action (no full lockdown) have still improved the numbers by increasing awareness and importance of social distancing. This may also mean that in our countries, the people at a higher risk are more careful and have not been infected yet.


Coming back to the first reason, don't underestimate the impact of it. In Switzerland, we are at day 24 of the pandemic (counting from when the first person was positively tested). In 14 days (so day 10) we have gone from 87 positive cases to 3888 (day 24). One could say that from those initially 87 positive cases, already 33 have died after a 14 day fight. I don't want to think or speculate what the fatality number will be in 14 days from now.

Given Germany and many other countries have been hit way later than Italy, I'd give the fatality rate a little time before drawing conclusions. Look to Spain though - it's the country not far behind Italy in number of fatalities.


I just listened to our governments press conference before and some interesting things were mentioned:

• People who require intensive care require it for more than 2 weeks. (more strain on ICU availability)
• The survival rate of patients in ICU is 50/50, potentially worse. In other words, most patients who require intensive care, possibly don't make it - though this number is not only one from our country but what the expectation is considering data from Italy according to our government.
• people end up dying of organ failure (not enough oxygen, despite artificial ventilation)
• there are young people with no former illnesses currently in intensive care too (in their 30ties) and require artificial ventilation too with conditions not good. There goes the myth that only people in risk groups are at risk.

References (In German):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8OHE_161lrQ / Press Conference Swiss Government 19.03.2020

[MtthsMlw]

No. What matters is the response of the people. Individuals taking responsibility for their actions.

Sure. In dreamland nobody needs hints informations and laws

Compare to, say, Germany where the number of cases is quite high (about 1/3 of the number in Italy) but deaths are very low (fewer than 1% of those in Italy). That's a huge disparity. Why? Germany isn't in lock down, by the way.

Germany has ~6 times more intensive care beds. 34 per 100000 people, UK has 6 for example.
Not too sure about the personal responsibility thing, still enough people here that don't care.

[Big Tea]

Sure. In dreamland nobody needs hints informations and laws

Compare to, say, Germany where the number of cases is quite high (about 1/3 of the number in Italy) but deaths are very low (fewer than 1% of those in Italy). That's a huge disparity. Why? Germany isn't in lock down, by the way.

Germany has ~6 times more intensive care beds. 34 per 100000 people, UK has 6 for example.
Not too sure about the personal responsibility thing, still enough people here that don't care.

Also, people die in the later days of infection. Someone infected and in day 6 is still alive, but may not be in day 12. A week is a long time