COVID-19 could affect more races this year.

[Big Tea]

Your solution would had been perfect if there where no old people, i suppose it's fine to pass it to your parents or grandparents right?

If everyone hides and doesn't get the virus, when they come back out of hiding, any source of the virus will cause a new outbreak. And if everyone has been in hiding for weeks, try getting them to go back and do it all again. They won't do it. The result will be huge number of new cases, most of which will be old and will then likely die. The health system will not cope. Lots of people will die.

This is the flaw in the lockdown plan.

Not true if everybody else outside has reduced in numbers, recovered or died off by time quarantine folks come out. See China for example which recorded zero inside deaths today. All other deaths were from outsiders.

That is 'internally transmitted', there were 39 Chinese nationals returning home who were infected. Assume these were returning by air and tested at the airport, but how many travel overland or back to the city from a more remote part, still infected. I hope I an wrong, but would not be shocked if a second wave occurs due to infection being brought back into the regions.

All the talk means nothing until time has passed and we can look back and see what we should have done.

[PlatinumZealot]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BtN-goy9VOY

Beautifully explained!

I hope the poster who want to test their immune systems think twice about it.

Got another one on covid-19 severity

[AMG.Tzan]

In regards to China's numbers; I do also question their accuracy. You can only count, what you test. If you don't let people out of their houses, how will you test them? How will they show up in numbers?

However, what is very encouraging is Japan:

Positive cases: 963
Since yesterday: +20
Fatalities: 33
Recovered: 215
Still active: 715
Serious critical: 49
Cases per 1M population: 8

Japan is a country with a population of 126 Million people with 38 Million in the metropolitan area of Tokyo. To only have so few cases is staggering. They also reacted very early, though I don't know to what lengths they have gone.

I don't believe China is lying about the number of infected people...they would have stopped announcing the numbers much earlier than the 80.000 infected they already have announced...this isn't a small number by any means (if you don't compare it to their population of course)!

It's true that you can only count what you test! But same goes for all countries...not everyone that has the symptoms goes to the hospital...he/she just self quarantines until the symptoms go away! But you can count the deaths of those infected...and China has that under control it seems!

Whereas Italy has gone out of control it seems...they have already surpassed China's death toll while having half the number of infected!! And i thought that the situation had stabilized a bit...as for 3-4 days they had around 3500 new infections every day! But yesterday and the day before they had 5000+ and 4000+ new infections respectively!

Japan's numbers are truly a positive sign! Hopefully Spain, France and the UK won't reach Italy's death and/or infection tally! But seeing China's chart of infections-deaths-recoveries since end of January to now...we need about 2-3 months to see the results of quarantine!

[Big Tea]

There was an interview with a doctor in Italy on Sky earlier, and the question was does it affect youngsters as badly.
His reply was that 50% if those in extreme care were over 50 years old, thus the other 50% were under.

[aral]

A comparison of figures in a newspaper today, showed that the majority of cases were in the age bracket 35-44. but naturally, in view of age and underlying problems, the majority of the people in icu were over the age of 65. further info indicated that females were more affected than males in a reaio of 60-40%. but of course, each country will have different figures and stats. the only thing that we can be sure of is that we cannot be sure of anything.
interesting too that italy has surpassed china with the number of cases, yet chinas population is 20 times greater, so that means that the current detection rate in italy is 20 times greater !

[dans79]

interesting too that italy has surpassed china with the number of cases, yet chinas population is 20 times greater, so that means that the current detection rate in italy is 20 times greater !

Or that Italy is worse at containing the spreed!

[Zynerji]

I wonder how much of the "old world" culture in these parts of the world is driving a stoic, home remedy approach instead of seeking immediate, professional medical care?

[Rodak]

.......interesting too that italy has surpassed china with the number of cases, yet chinas population is 20 times greater, so that means that the current detection rate in italy is 20 times greater !

The Johns Hopkins site has Chinese cases at about 80,000 with 3300 deaths and Italy with about 40,000 and 3400 deaths; I think your numbers are a bit off. The Chinese CFR is 4% and the Italian CFR is about 8%. Of course the CFR (case fatality rate) is different than the IFR (infection fatality rate) because the CFR measures only confirmed cases/deaths and the level of testing will of course change the numbers. Here in the US testing has been abysmal and the true impact of the disease is only starting to be understood. This will not be good times for the next few months, as the disease is expected to peak in early June.

[RZS10]

Dunno if it has been mentioned here already, i haven't seen it ... it's based on analysis of roughly 18% (355 people) of the corona deaths at time of the study:
The average age of those who died in Italy was 79.5 years.
99.2% of those who died had pre-existing medical conditions.
48.5% had three or more pre-existing medical conditions.
25.6% had two other illnesses.
25.1% had one other illness.
75% had high blood pressure.
35% had diabetes.
33% had heart diseases.

From the article it's not clear whether that's still just based on a portion of the deaths or overall:
Only 17 dead under the age of 50.
All dead under the age of 40 had serious pre-existing medical conditions

[DChemTech]

.......interesting too that italy has surpassed china with the number of cases, yet chinas population is 20 times greater, so that means that the current detection rate in italy is 20 times greater !

The Johns Hopkins site has Chinese cases at about 80,000 with 3300 deaths and Italy with about 40,000 and 3400 deaths; I think your numbers are a bit off. The Chinese CFR is 4% and the Italian CFR is about 8%. Of course the CFR (case fatality rate) is different than the IFR (infection fatality rate) because the CFR measures only confirmed cases/deaths and the level of testing will of course change the numbers. Here in the US testing has been abysmal and the true impact of the disease is only starting to be understood. This will not be good times for the next few months, as the disease is expected to peak in early June.

CFR in the US will be 200% if things progress like this there...

[wesley123]

You clearly missed the point.

The thing here is that to combat it people need to develop immunity. That is realistically the only way to actually battle this, and yes, for people to develop immunity they need to get sick.

Of course, we could all go in lockdown and try to protect ourselves against ever getting it, but as soon as the lockdown is over, we will get the same pandemic because people aren't immune to it.

and its already been proven that you can get it a 2nd time, is it proven that ppl are immum against it? ... no

Has it? People who don't recover properly can fall back shortly after. It doesn't mean they get it again, it means they haven't fully recovered.

and the lockdown is not to try to stop it, its there to keep the medical care at a level so EVERY patient, no matter what they have, can be taken care off..... nobody claimed a lockdown cures or kills the virus..... but you and others don't seem to understand it ...

What you don't seem to understand is that you cannot keep a lockdown long enough. A cure is a year away, in a best case scenario. Do you want to keep a lockdown for a year? Good luck on that.

Outside of that, you know they can't develop a cure for everyone, right? So regardless of how you look at it, a lockdown does very little as the virus can simply peak again after the lockdown, and no one has developed immunity.

i have heard Netherlands have a shortage on appartments for rent ..... this herd immuminity is a good way to solve that problem ....

Okay and now you are just throwing around conspiracy theories.

[DChemTech]

You clearly missed the point.

The thing here is that to combat it people need to develop immunity. That is realistically the only way to actually battle this, and yes, for people to develop immunity they need to get sick.

Of course, we could all go in lockdown and try to protect ourselves against ever getting it, but as soon as the lockdown is over, we will get the same pandemic because people aren't immune to it.

and its already been proven that you can get it a 2nd time, is it proven that ppl are immum against it? ... no

Has it? People who don't recover properly can fall back shortly after. It doesn't mean they get it again, it means they haven't fully recovered.

and the lockdown is not to try to stop it, its there to keep the medical care at a level so EVERY patient, no matter what they have, can be taken care off..... nobody claimed a lockdown cures or kills the virus..... but you and others don't seem to understand it ...

What you don't seem to understand is that you cannot keep a lockdown long enough. A cure is a year away, in a best case scenario. Do you want to keep a lockdown for a year? Good luck on that.

Outside of that, you know they can't develop a cure for everyone, right? So regardless of how you look at it, a lockdown does very little as the virus can simply peak again after the lockdown, and no one has developed immunity.

i have heard Netherlands have a shortage on appartments for rent ..... this herd immuminity is a good way to solve that problem ....

Okay and now you are just throwing around conspiracy theories.

And even if people -can- get reinfected a second time, that does not mean people do not get immune at all.
Re-infection may happen for all kinds of diseases (flu included). The question is, how often does this happen (and how fast after a previous infection).

[Big Tea]

You clearly missed the point.

The thing here is that to combat it people need to develop immunity. That is realistically the only way to actually battle this, and yes, for people to develop immunity they need to get sick.

Of course, we could all go in lockdown and try to protect ourselves against ever getting it, but as soon as the lockdown is over, we will get the same pandemic because people aren't immune to it.

and its already been proven that you can get it a 2nd time, is it proven that ppl are immum against it? ... no

Has it? People who don't recover properly can fall back shortly after. It doesn't mean they get it again, it means they haven't fully recovered.

and the lockdown is not to try to stop it, its there to keep the medical care at a level so EVERY patient, no matter what they have, can be taken care off..... nobody claimed a lockdown cures or kills the virus..... but you and others don't seem to understand it ...

What you don't seem to understand is that you cannot keep a lockdown long enough. A cure is a year away, in a best case scenario. Do you want to keep a lockdown for a year? Good luck on that.

Outside of that, you know they can't develop a cure for everyone, right? So regardless of how you look at it, a lockdown does very little as the virus can simply peak again after the lockdown, and no one has developed immunity.

i have heard Netherlands have a shortage on appartments for rent ..... this herd immuminity is a good way to solve that problem ....

Okay and now you are just throwing around conspiracy theories.

(Only what I gather form study, I have no genuine knowledge, but) I read that epidemics of this sort usually mutate quite soon. Often becoming more infectious or more lethal, (but sometimes the opposite) and sometimes the mutation is enough that it is far enough from the original that antibodies will not recognise it as the same illness.
It seems that the bodies own defences are what does the mortal damage in that the 'defences' just attack everything and wreck the organs. It could get better, but don't hold your breath, or it could get worse.

[Blackout]

What you don't seem to understand is that you cannot keep a lockdown long enough. A cure is a year away, in a best case scenario. Do you want to keep a lockdown for a year? Good luck on that.

Source?

[DChemTech]

and its already been proven that you can get it a 2nd time, is it proven that ppl are immum against it? ... no

Has it? People who don't recover properly can fall back shortly after. It doesn't mean they get it again, it means they haven't fully recovered.

and the lockdown is not to try to stop it, its there to keep the medical care at a level so EVERY patient, no matter what they have, can be taken care off..... nobody claimed a lockdown cures or kills the virus..... but you and others don't seem to understand it ...

What you don't seem to understand is that you cannot keep a lockdown long enough. A cure is a year away, in a best case scenario. Do you want to keep a lockdown for a year? Good luck on that.

Outside of that, you know they can't develop a cure for everyone, right? So regardless of how you look at it, a lockdown does very little as the virus can simply peak again after the lockdown, and no one has developed immunity.

i have heard Netherlands have a shortage on appartments for rent ..... this herd immuminity is a good way to solve that problem ....

Okay and now you are just throwing around conspiracy theories.

(Only what I gather form study, I have no genuine knowledge, but) I read that epidemics of this sort usually mutate quite soon. Often becoming more infectious or more lethal, (but sometimes the opposite) and sometimes the mutation is enough that it is far enough from the original that antibodies will not recognise it as the same illness.
It seems that the bodies own defences are what does the mortal damage in that the 'defences' just attack everything and wreck the organs. It could get better, but don't hold your breath, or it could get worse.

Do you have a source for 'more deadly'?
More infective, sure, I can see that from a Darwinian perspective. Any virus that is more infective will increase numbers more rapidly and outcompete other strains.
Mutations for more deadly, from a Darwinian perspective, may not be beneficial for the organism however. After all, more deadly often means more visible - more visible means more distancing by others, making it more difficult for the virus to spread. Kill your host quicker and you also have more time to spread. This was, as far as I know, one of the reasons why the more deadly SARS and MERS infections were contained more easily. It's also why common cold and flu are so successful - they don't make the host too sick, so the host may continue to mingle with other people while already infected.