COVID-19 could affect more races this year.

[PlatinumZealot]

Social disgdistancing at work in 1918

https://www.popsci.com/story/health/cor ... ource=digg

St. Louis lifted their bans early that's why you see the hump.

[e30ernest]

Yeah glad you brought the 1918 flu up. The current pandemic isn't a flu, but we can still learn some lessons on how the 1918 pandemic went.

[Phil]

This graph is a simple way to represent why extreme social distancing measures are necessary.

The red line represents surge critical care bed capacity.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETbvzf2UcAA ... name=large

Without the social distancing measures, the healthcare system will be completely overwhelmed.

My fiancee is an ER nurse. I'm terrified for her on a daily basis. Since she is staying at work to help people survive, I ask that everyone else do their part and stay at home.

This is a very interesting picture. The only thing I'd question is the time-line. Overloading the healthcare system is not something I'd expect in mid April, but within March for most countries in Europe. Other countries/regions might be less affected, depending on when the spread started and how fast it is progressing, as well as what action governments are taking.

The other problem is that those who require intensive care, require it for prolonged times. Here the government is talking about 2+ weeks with not a very high rate of survival for the patients that are. One of the other big issues is not necessarily the amount of beds in intensive care and ventilators, but staff. Staff that are also getting ill from infection spreading to them and overworking.

To the people who think they are not affected because they are young, fit and healthy; An overloaded healthcare system means that also patients with other injuries can not be helped. It affects everyone who requires healthcare, not just COVID-19 patients.

[nzjrs]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/51963897

Matt Hancock, Secretary of State for Health and Social Care in the UK also said tonight that F1 teams were working to manufacture the ventilators.

i think that's a bit of morale-boosting PR tbh, according to https://www.wired.co.uk/article/car-man ... entilators the most they or car manufacturers can do is weld frames and make some components with additive manufacturing

Lol, you and your additive manufacturing

[izzy]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/51963897

Matt Hancock, Secretary of State for Health and Social Care in the UK also said tonight that F1 teams were working to manufacture the ventilators.

i think that's a bit of morale-boosting PR tbh, according to https://www.wired.co.uk/article/car-man ... entilators the most they or car manufacturers can do is weld frames and make some components with additive manufacturing

Lol, you and your additive manufacturing

In these difficult times it's so much more positive than subtractive manufacturing

[AMG.Tzan]

Do you believe we could race in China by May as things stand there??

The Chinese have managed to almost stop new infections and almost recover everyone infected ("just" 9000 to go)! But the race there would depend more on the teams and the countries they come from rather than the situation in China alone!

Italy and Spain are out of hand...i don't see them recovering any time soon...even come summer i think the situation will still be critical! I still can't understand how they managed to end up like this...people just underestimate the danger of a pandemic and that's where we end up! Same goes for the UK...their silly plan quickly got dropped thankfully!

Btw Italy has already surpassed China's deaths...just wow!

[Jambier]

I don't think a minute that we will have a race in China.
And I'm really not sure about Baku.

July is a more realistic begining of the season - if there is one - in my opinion.

[mmred]

Do you believe we could race in China by May as things stand there??

The Chinese have managed to almost stop new infections and almost recover everyone infected ("just" 9000 to go)! But the race there would depend more on the teams and the countries they come from rather than the situation in China alone!

Italy and Spain are out of hand...i don't see them recovering any time soon...even come summer i think the situation will still be critical! I still can't understand how they managed to end up like this...people just underestimate the danger of a pandemic and that's where we end up! Same goes for the UK...their silly plan quickly got dropped thankfully!

Btw Italy has already surpassed China's deaths...just wow!

China has martial law. Italy was the First euro country infected, they underestimated It could spread in Europe. As for the other countries in Europe After seeing Italy closing in Europe they had no excuses

[DChemTech]

Do you believe we could race in China by May as things stand there??

The Chinese have managed to almost stop new infections and almost recover everyone infected ("just" 9000 to go)! But the race there would depend more on the teams and the countries they come from rather than the situation in China alone!

Italy and Spain are out of hand...i don't see them recovering any time soon...even come summer i think the situation will still be critical! I still can't understand how they managed to end up like this...people just underestimate the danger of a pandemic and that's where we end up! Same goes for the UK...their silly plan quickly got dropped thankfully!

Btw Italy has already surpassed China's deaths...just wow!

No, no way. There is one huge drawback to China's strategy: you need to remain in effective quarantine until the rest of the world is clean, otherwise you are very quickly back at square one.

[kimetic]

Do you believe we could race in China by May as things stand there??

The Chinese have managed to almost stop new infections and almost recover everyone infected ("just" 9000 to go)! But the race there would depend more on the teams and the countries they come from rather than the situation in China alone!

Italy and Spain are out of hand...i don't see them recovering any time soon...even come summer i think the situation will still be critical! I still can't understand how they managed to end up like this...people just underestimate the danger of a pandemic and that's where we end up! Same goes for the UK...their silly plan quickly got dropped thankfully!

Btw Italy has already surpassed China's deaths...just wow!

I don't believe China's data at all: the state has put everyone in Wuhan virtually under house arrest. Even if the claims were true, which I doubt given the extreme censorship, it's not something any other country can copy.

Everywhere else it's still accelerating, there's no reason to think it'll be over by June or any particular month, we're in the realms of the unknown. We need to see it receding in a western democracy before we can predict anything I'd say, and there's no sign of that, in fact quite the opposite, it's gathering pace. Nobody has beaten it, at this point, it's up, up, up.

[Phil]

In regards to China's numbers; I do also question their accuracy. You can only count, what you test. If you don't let people out of their houses, how will you test them? How will they show up in numbers?

However, what is very encouraging is Japan:

Positive cases: 963
Since yesterday: +20
Fatalities: 33
Recovered: 215
Still active: 715
Serious critical: 49
Cases per 1M population: 8

Japan is a country with a population of 126 Million people with 38 Million in the metropolitan area of Tokyo. To only have so few cases is staggering. They also reacted very early, though I don't know to what lengths they have gone.

[henry]

.

To the people who think they are not affected because they are young, fit and healthy; An overloaded healthcare system means that also patients with other injuries can not be helped. It affects everyone who requires healthcare, not just COVID-19 patients.

Good point. A close friend is a very fit cyclist. His cycle club, and others in the area, have cancelled their group rides. Nobody wants to turn up at A&E (ER) with a broken collarbone and use up hospital resources. Young,fit, people doing their bit for the rest of society. Stopping riding isn’t a small ask. They’re addicted to it.

[DChemTech]

.

To the people who think they are not affected because they are young, fit and healthy; An overloaded healthcare system means that also patients with other injuries can not be helped. It affects everyone who requires healthcare, not just COVID-19 patients.

Good point. A close friend is a very fit cyclist. His cycle club, and others in the area, have cancelled their group rides. Nobody wants to turn up at A&E (ER) with a broken collarbone and use up hospital resources. Young,fit, people doing their bit for the rest of society. Stopping riding isn’t a small ask. They’re addicted to it.

That's a good attitude. I wish more people would take it. And you don't even have to stop riding (if you do take care and don't push it leading to incidents) - just stop doing it in groups. A solo ride or walk to keep yourself fit should be no issue, and it's one of the reasons why I favor a partial lockdown with proper social distancing over a complete lockdown - and why I am rather pissed watching people in stores and parks absolutely botching it.

[Fulcrum]

In regards to China's numbers; I do also question their accuracy. You can only count, what you test. If you don't let people out of their houses, how will you test them? How will they show up in numbers?

However, what is very encouraging is Japan:

Positive cases: 963
Since yesterday: +20
Fatalities: 33
Recovered: 215
Still active: 715
Serious critical: 49
Cases per 1M population: 8

Japan is a country with a population of 126 Million people with 38 Million in the metropolitan area of Tokyo. To only have so few cases is staggering. They also reacted very early, though I don't know to what lengths they have gone.

They did react early. I suspect because the threat of an Olympic cancellation/postponement would be considered a national catastrophe, even if it isn't their fault.

Some areas of Japan have recently lowered their restrictions on movement/distancing, so let's see how the numbers evolve.

The only numbers from China worth paying attention to are deaths. While they have dropped substantially, they have not stopped. The minute the country opens up, I expect a secondary wave to start somewhere.

The more interesting data to watch is South Korea. They had a much bigger outbreak of infection than Japan, and while they were able to curb infection rates, their data suggests they may be in the early phases of round two.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... uth-korea/

[MtthsMlw]