COVID-19 could affect more races this year.

[mmred]

I've read also that no every country count the dead the same way

That's why Germany seems to be so low, counting dead only if Covid is primary cause of death

That explains a lot... Basically here they say there are always pregress conditions

[timbo]

I have already mentioned a report by a person who works in Japan, developed a flu-like symptoms and was not tested for the coronavirus. By now she developed symptoms which are consistent with COVID-19. Her doctor tried to arrange for a virus test, and it turned out that each test has to be approved by the higher ups in Tokyo. At the end the person was refused the test.

[oT v1]

I have already mentioned a report by a person who works in Japan, developed a flu-like symptoms and was not tested for the coronavirus. By now she developed symptoms which are consistent with COVID-19. Her doctor tried to arrange for a virus test, and it turned out that each test has to be approved by the higher ups in Tokyo. At the end the person was refused the test.

I guess it was their effort to look good before the Olympics, kind of gross and hopefully if the Olympics are postponed then sick people can get treated properly.

(In a sick way it would be interesting to see mortality rates for a nation going for full ignorance mode, purely for science)

[Just_a_fan]

I don't wanna sound obnoxious but i said it all along.
1 italy was not a special case just the first hit
2 there were no uk alternatives to italian and asian quarantine like rules
3 social style cant be responsible for 10x deaths, ot can spread the disease faster but once the healthcare is in crysis deaths depend by the vyrus itself who s much more deadly than what they said to avoid panic

Doesn't your #1 contradict your #3? And didnt you earlier suggest that Italy was a special case because of a specially mutated strain?

No contraddiction between italy being normal and having 10x deaths for maybe a mutated strain

Normal means and meant the causes are not social
10x deaths is what we see in europe compared to asia
Again causes are not social or the virus mitated or the numbers were altered before or now

Please stop taking this discussion as an attack on Italy. No one here is attacking Italy - people throughout the world are trying to figure out why there is a difference between some countries and other countries. Maybe there is no difference and it's all down to luck/timing, maybe it's down to how things are reported. Or maybe there are differences between countries and that can be used to help prevent deaths as we go forward through the next weeks/months. If the differences are social that can help inform other Governments in how to deal with the social side in their own countries. Maybe there are biological differences - maybe there is some genetic difference in the hardest hit Italian area that makes them more prone to serious infection. If so, that is useful to know as it will help to define how future treatments / vaccines are produced. Maybe there are some underlying health issues in that area - perhaps people have underlying lung issues from localised pollution, for example, that doesn't affect them day-to-day but makes them more prone to infection. It's these little details that are really important in analysing the progress of the virus.

At the end of the pandemic, there will be many papers written using data from China, Italy, Spain, USA etc., that will help future pandemic responses.

[Raleigh]

Fear mongering might be the only way to get the message across to those people. It might lead, unfortunately, to the extreme hoarding of resources, but if that's what is needed then so be it.

i blame the supermarkets personally. They just watched their shelves being cleared and counted the money, for days and days. They could easily have set limits at the start and there wouldn't have been any shortages or even any panic

in my mind they're different people tho, the panic hoarders and the spring breakers. The fearful ones are just like that and the bold ones aren't going to get scared into changing, they'll have to be persuaded that it's not smart or fashionable

Got an old school mate who ended up as a department manager in one of the big retail chains and what he says is that the supply chain only works fast enough to keep up with predicted sales, no more and no less.

All the supermarkets run on the minimum number of staff and minimum backstock levels possible to keep up predicted sales, they spend a lot of time calculating exactly how bare-bones they can cut the staffing and supply levels to meet those targets because profit margins are slim.

Which means that if demand jumps 50% or 100% then shelves empty almost immediately because there is no spare capacity.

According to him the limits make no difference (can't buy 10x one brand pasta? People buy 3x one brand, 3x another, they end up buying the same number and clear the shelves anyway) and are just a PR move to show supermarkets are doing something to fight the shortages.

Even if those limits had been introduced right away the shelves would still be empty because none of those supermakets had the spare capacity to keep up with the unexpected and massive spike in demand.

[aral]

A lot of comments here are started with " i have read....." etc. it is always dangerous to take newspaper sources as fact , or even believing what a friend of a friend of your cousins friend etc, has stated as fact. There are many different reports being bandied about and various reasons given for spread etc, but the simple fact is that currently nobody has all the answers and as just a fan says, we , and all the experts will learn from data collected, after the containment or elimination of the virus. Some people are claiming that the virus can only be spread through droplets in the air, yet, with the virus apparently capable of surviving on hard and soft surfaces for many hours, actual contact by accident or otherwise should be avoided. Social distancing appears the be the best prevention as of now

And, this is my personal view and not to be taken as a mods intervention !

[Big Tea]

I just came back from my daily walk with the wife and was amazed at how many people are at the local golf club The car park is full to overflowing, and it is where they have a televised 'royal' from, so big car park, and it looks as if there are crowds waiting at each tee. Where is peoples brain????? Don't go work but gather in huge gangs instead!!!

I felt like shouting at them (but stayed 100mtr away)

[Just_a_fan]

Some people are claiming that the virus can only be spread through droplets in the air, yet, with the virus apparently capable of surviving on hard and soft surfaces for many hours, actual contact by accident or otherwise should be avoided. Social distancing appears the be the best prevention as of now

Hand hygiene is so important because of this. Washing hands thoroughly with soap and water (you don't need special hand sanitizer unless you're in a situation where soap and water aren't available/practical). Using soap and water, wash hands for 20-30 seconds ensuring the entire surface of every finger, the back of the hand and the palm, and as far up the wrist as is practical are covered in soap, is what is required to kill the virus on your hands.

It's important to do this because the virus gets in to the body via the respiratory tract and we touch our faces a huge number of times each day. Remember that touching the area around your eyes counts because there is a duct between the eyes and the nasal cavity. This duct can act as a pathway for the virus. So touching your mouth, your nose or your eyes increases the chance of infection.

Wash your hands regularly and make a real effort to avoid touching your face unless you have just cleaned your hands immediately before. Wash your hands regularly even at home as you may have brought in the virus on clothes, on packages, food wrapping etc.

Soap breaks down the virus and also removes it from the skin. Wash your hands thoroughly and regularly.

The above is all standard advice given out by the relevant professionals in every country.

[Phil]

Here's the reason why I don't think Italy (and Spain) are anomalies:



The Italy "positive cases" are shifted by 13 days to match our local one to show a similar progression. If you check the 'fatality' curves however, one can tell they are showing a very similar rate of increase, but are again delayed by another 4 days. If I'd shift them by the 4 days, they'd be very similar.

According to my own accumulated data, Italys CFR started out at around 2.5% but has continued to increase to 9.3% currently.

Comparing that to ours in Switzerland, ours started out at 0.5% and has since gradually increased to 1.4%. However, again, I think it's not quite right to compare the latest "case total" with the latest fatality number. There needs to be a shift, a latency and that latency is dependent on how severe the cases are that are being 'registered' and how long they get to 'survive' until a conclusion over their faith can be made. Due to the fact that Italys health systems are overloaded, that latency is lower than i.e. in my country, where our health systems are not yet overloaded and people can still be helped and their conclusion delayed. Once we hit our maximum capacity, that delay will decrease and our CFR will continue to grow.

It's my opinion that I think the maximum capacity in Switzerland will be reached sometime this week. At the moment, things still seem to be calm (and similarly to Germany, we have taken on patients from France/Elsass), but due to the exponential increase in cases, I think we'll go very quickly from "calm" to "overloaded".

[mmred]

Doesn't your #1 contradict your #3? And didnt you earlier suggest that Italy was a special case because of a specially mutated strain?

No contraddiction between italy being normal and having 10x deaths for maybe a mutated strain

Normal means and meant the causes are not social
10x deaths is what we see in europe compared to asia
Again causes are not social or the virus mitated or the numbers were altered before or now

Please stop taking this discussion as an attack on Italy. No one here is attacking Italy - people throughout the world are trying to figure out why there is a difference between some countries and other countries. Maybe there is no difference and it's all down to luck/timing, maybe it's down to how things are reported. Or maybe there are differences between countries and that can be used to help prevent deaths as we go forward through the next weeks/months. If the differences are social that can help inform other Governments in how to deal with the social side in their own countries. Maybe there are biological differences - maybe there is some genetic difference in the hardest hit Italian area that makes them more prone to serious infection. If so, that is useful to know as it will help to define how future treatments / vaccines are produced. Maybe there are some underlying health issues in that area - perhaps people have underlying lung issues from localised pollution, for example, that doesn't affect them day-to-day but makes them more prone to infection. It's these little details that are really important in analysing the progress of the virus.

At the end of the pandemic, there will be many papers written using data from China, Italy, Spain, USA etc., that will help future pandemic responses.

I never took the discussion as an attack to italy, i even avoided any polemic, i just took it for what it is, as arial says, an often superficial attempt to explain things in order to protect ourself from fear in lack of real answers.

The basic social distancing that many government implemented and some people did before their government s are all the prevention we can use mixed with the underestimated good personal hygiene, healthy diet and so on.

Sadly we ll miss f1 races but if all goes well we shall overcome this bad moment and continue to talk about the underestimated lando norris that is the funniest guy out there adter kimy imho and deserves a winning car asap

[izzy]

Got an old school mate who ended up as a department manager in one of the big retail chains and what he says is that the supply chain only works fast enough to keep up with predicted sales, no more and no less.

All the supermarkets run on the minimum number of staff and minimum backstock levels possible to keep up predicted sales, they spend a lot of time calculating exactly how bare-bones they can cut the staffing and supply levels to meet those targets because profit margins are slim.

Which means that if demand jumps 50% or 100% then shelves empty almost immediately because there is no spare capacity.

According to him the limits make no difference (can't buy 10x one brand pasta? People buy 3x one brand, 3x another, they end up buying the same number and clear the shelves anyway) and are just a PR move to show supermarkets are doing something to fight the shortages.

Even if those limits had been introduced right away the shelves would still be empty because none of those supermakets had the spare capacity to keep up with the unexpected and massive spike in demand.

oh interesting, still it's logistics isn't it. They just had to ramp deliveries up a bit more at the start, stop people piling up multiple trolleys with whole huge packs of everything, being filmed, and it'd never have kicked off. Panic buying is something that feeds on itself, so if you can stop it starting you can stop it starting. One empty shelf goes viral and kerboom!

And supermarkets have been saying they actually have plenty of everything available, they could've reacted much sooner, but obviously they loved the idea of massive sales, until now gradually the PR has gone the other way

[subcritical71]

oh interesting, still it's logistics isn't it. They just had to ramp deliveries up a bit more at the start, stop people piling up multiple trolleys with whole huge packs of everything, being filmed, and it'd never have kicked off. Panic buying is something that feeds on itself, so if you can stop it starting you can stop it starting. One empty shelf goes viral and kerboom!

And supermarkets have been saying they actually have plenty of everything available, they could've reacted much sooner, but obviously they loved the idea of massive sales, until now gradually the PR has gone the other way

I see the same thing in Florida whenever a hurricane is forecast to strike. Some people will panic and buy up all the fuel. The stations aren't getting resupplied fast enough to support the unforecasted demand. If you give it 4-7 days everything gets back to normal. I've seen this same trend during this current crisis at the grocery. Shelves are now mostly refilled and people have stopped the panic buying. Paper products for whatever reason still seem to be in short supply.

[RZS10]

Wash your hands thoroughly and regularly.

Also moisturize your hands so your skin barrier remains somewhat intact, i don't understand why this isn't pointed out in all the guides ... it's not quite clear whether the virus can infect via dry and cracked/wounded skin but CDC PPE guides on handling people with covid say "If there is a risk of cuts, puncture wounds, or other injuries that break the skin, wear heavy-duty gloves over the nitrile gloves." - so it's a distinct possibility.

[aral]

Currently ANYTHING is possible.....as the experts do not have a definitive answer to reasons for spread.

[Big Tea]

Got an old school mate who ended up as a department manager in one of the big retail chains and what he says is that the supply chain only works fast enough to keep up with predicted sales, no more and no less.

All the supermarkets run on the minimum number of staff and minimum backstock levels possible to keep up predicted sales, they spend a lot of time calculating exactly how bare-bones they can cut the staffing and supply levels to meet those targets because profit margins are slim.

Which means that if demand jumps 50% or 100% then shelves empty almost immediately because there is no spare capacity.

According to him the limits make no difference (can't buy 10x one brand pasta? People buy 3x one brand, 3x another, they end up buying the same number and clear the shelves anyway) and are just a PR move to show supermarkets are doing something to fight the shortages.

Even if those limits had been introduced right away the shelves would still be empty because none of those supermakets had the spare capacity to keep up with the unexpected and massive spike in demand.

oh interesting, still it's logistics isn't it. They just had to ramp deliveries up a bit more at the start, stop people piling up multiple trolleys with whole huge packs of everything, being filmed, and it'd never have kicked off. Panic buying is something that feeds on itself, so if you can stop it starting you can stop it starting. One empty shelf goes viral and kerboom!

And supermarkets have been saying they actually have plenty of everything available, they could've reacted much sooner, but obviously they loved the idea of massive sales, until now gradually the PR has gone the other way

What supermarkets in UK do not have is delivery slots. Cannot get one for the whole upcoming month