COVID-19 could affect more races this year.

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Just_a_fan
Just_a_fan
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Re: COVID-19 could affect more races this year.

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strad wrote:
24 Mar 2020, 00:59
That's going to be interesting if groups of idiots get together and then refuse to disperse. That's going need more than one or two police officers to sort out.
Our governor has issued a stay at home order but the millennials or what ever those 18 to 22 yr. olds are called, do whatever they want.
The local news here interviewed a young lady (17 or 19) gathered at the park with around 100 friends as part of a celebration. She told the reporter that A) "Can't catch the virus out in the open air, and B) They have a right to be there. http://www.stradsplace.com/photos/banghead.gif.gif
Does the stay at home order allow for a criminal record to be created? That is, can these people be arrested and charged with an offence that will stay on their record? Reminding them that a criminal record can adversely affect college/job prospects might help to focus their minds.
If you are more fortunate than others, build a larger table not a taller fence.

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RZS10
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Re: COVID-19 could affect more races this year.

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basti313 wrote:
24 Mar 2020, 10:43
But this was completely nonsense, we see a strong decline in numbers, lower right corner is infections per day:
https://experience.arcgis.com/experienc ... 327b2bf1d4
The RKI data (by their own admission) lags behind because they wait until that data has gone through all the official channels and that may take some time, local health authorities also don't work on weekends so the data will always be a bit off

Their graph shows a downward trend, comparing this to the morgenpost map and data, which they pull from the Johns Hopkins University CSSE (Data from WHO, CDC (USA), ECDC (Europe), NHC, DXY (China) and data from local health authorities and the RKI. the trend isn't really there.

The total difference in cases is 31260 vs 27436 btw ... deaths is 132 vs 114 ...

Image

In the map you linked one can also click the three bars top right and choose a different data set.

The CSSE+JHU data says 30150 cases 130 deaths.

tl:dr it's probably too early to say that there's a downward trend but one can be cautiously optimistic.

This is almost 10 days old but now that the USA consider treating people with Chloroquine (did a few 'tests' with great success) it's an interesting read ...

Maybe i should copy/paste this from the top of the medium page
"Anyone can publish on Medium per our Policies, but we don’t fact-check every story."

https://medium.com/@adrianbye/is-the-hi ... ef0a2903f3

Also:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/these-drug ... 1584899438

Turn of java to get past the paywall/login or copy from
HERE
A flash of potential good news from the front lines of the coronavirus pandemic: A treatment is showing promise. Doctors in France, South Korea and the U.S. are using an antimalarial drug known as hydroxychloroquine with success. We are physicians treating patients with Covid-19, and the therapy appears to be making a difference. It isn’t a silver bullet, but if deployed quickly and strategically the drug could potentially help bend the pandemic’s “hockey stick” curve.
Hydroxychloroquine is a common generic drug used to treat lupus, arthritis and malaria. The medication, whose brand name is Plaquenil, is relatively safe, with the main side effect being stomach irritation, though it can cause echocardiogram and vision changes. In 2005, a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention study showed that chloroquine, an analogue, could block a virus from penetrating a cell if administered before exposure. If tissue had already been infected, the drug inhibited the virus.
On March 9 a team of researchers in China published results showing hydroxychloroquine was effective against the 2019 coronavirus in a test tube. The authors suggested a five-day, 12-pill treatment for Covid-19: two 200-milligram tablets twice a day on the first day followed by one tablet twice a day for four more days.
A more recent French study used the drug in combination with azithromycin. Most Americans know azithromycin as the brand name Zithromax Z-Pak, prescribed for upper respiratory infections. The Z-Pak alone doesn’t appear to help fight Covid-19, and the findings of combination treatment are preliminary.
But researchers in France treated a small number of patients with both hydroxychloroquine and a Z-Pak, and 100% of them were cured by day six of treatment. Compare that with 57.1% of patients treated with hydroxychloroquine alone, and 12.5% of patients who received neither.
What’s more, most patients cleared the virus in three to six days rather than the 20 days observed in China. That reduces the time a patient can spread the virus to others. One lesson that should inform the U.S. approach: Use this treatment cocktail early, and don’t wait until a patient is on a ventilator in the intensive-care unit.
A couple of careful studies of hydroxychloroquine are in progress, but the results may take weeks or longer. Infectious-disease experts are already using hydroxychloroquine clinically with some success. With our colleague Dr. Joe Brewer in Kansas City, Mo., we are using hydroxychloroquine in two ways: to treat patients and as prophylaxis to protect health-care workers from infection.
We had been using the protocol outlined in the research from China, but we’ve switched to the combination prescribed in the French study. Our patients appear to be showing fewer symptoms.
Our experience suggests that hydroxychloroquine, with or without a Z-Pak, should be a first-line treatment. Unfortunately, there is already a shortage of hydroxychloroquine. The federal government should immediately contract with generic manufacturers to ramp up production. Any stockpiles should be released.
As a matter of clinical practice, hydroxychloroquine should be given early to patients who test positive, and perhaps if Covid-19 is presumed—in the case of ill household contacts, for instance. It may be especially useful to treat mild cases and young patients, which would significantly decrease viral transmission and, as they say, “flatten the curve.”
Emergency rooms run the risk of one patient exposing a dozen nurses and doctors. Instead of exposed health workers getting placed on 14-day quarantine, they could receive hydroxychloroquine for five days, then test for the virus. That would allow health-care workers to return to work sooner if they test negative.
President Trump touted hydroxychloroquine in his Thursday press conference as a potential treatment, which is a welcome move. And this isn’t only about treatment. Rapid and strategic use of these drugs could help arrest the spread of the disease.
We have decades of experience in treating infectious diseases and dealing with epidemics, and we believe in safety and efficacy. We don’t want to peddle false hope; we have seen promising drugs turn out to be duds.
But the public expects an answer, and we don’t have the luxury of time. We have a drug with an excellent safety profile but limited clinical outcomes—and no better alternatives until long after this disaster peaks. We can use this treatment to help save lives and prevent others from becoming infected. Or we can wait several weeks and risk discovering we didn’t do everything we could to end this pandemic as quickly as possible.
Dr. Colyer is a practicing physician and chairman of the National Advisory Commission on Rural Health. He served as governor of Kansas, 2018-19. Dr. Hinthorn is director of the Division of Infectious Disease at the University of Kansas Medical Center.

TO HERE into wordpad or similar :^)
Last edited by RZS10 on 24 Mar 2020, 22:34, edited 1 time in total.

aral
aral
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Re: COVID-19 could affect more races this year.

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SiLo wrote:
24 Mar 2020, 13:23


Can we stop perpetuating the idea that millenials are ignoring this stuff. Most millenials are 24 at minimum now and not doing this.
And how do you know that? by the way, as this is the year 2020, millenials will be under 20 . AFAIK, a millenian is a person born in this century

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Phil
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Re: COVID-19 could affect more races this year.

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What downward trend? As more and more people get to do tests, there are less resources available, hence there's a limit of how many people can be tested in a day. I don't know what is in Germany and it's regions, but in Switzerland, we've definitely reached some kind of threshold. In other words, the number of cases are still growing, but there's no way we're quick enough to count them. Just looking at the graphs and one might think the progression has slowed. I don't think this has happened, but rather simply that the limit has been reached.
Not for nothing, Rosberg's Championship is the only thing that lends credibility to Hamilton's recent success. Otherwise, he'd just be the guy who's had the best car. — bhall II
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DChemTech
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Re: COVID-19 could affect more races this year.

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aral wrote:
24 Mar 2020, 16:35
SiLo wrote:
24 Mar 2020, 13:23


Can we stop perpetuating the idea that millenials are ignoring this stuff. Most millenials are 24 at minimum now and not doing this.
And how do you know that? by the way, as this is the year 2020, millenials will be under 20 . AFAIK, a millenian is a person born in this century
Nope, not according to wikipedia anyway:

"Millennials, also known as Generation Y (or simply Gen Y), are the demographic cohort following Generation X and preceding Generation Z. Researchers and popular media use the early 1980s as starting birth years and the mid-1990s to early 2000s as ending birth years, with 1981 to 1996 a widely accepted defining range for the generation.

Millennials are sometimes referred to as "echo boomers" due to a major surge in birth rates in the 1980s and 1990s, and because millennials are often the children of the baby boomers. This generation is generally marked by their coming of age in the Information Age, and they are comfortable in their usage of digital technologies and social media. Millennials are often the parents of Generation Alpha."

izzy
izzy
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Re: COVID-19 could affect more races this year.

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The trouble with young people today is that with our so called smart phones we do actually know everything :lol:

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Big Tea
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Re: COVID-19 could affect more races this year.

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Brake Horse Power wrote:
24 Mar 2020, 14:18
DChemTech wrote:
24 Mar 2020, 10:07
e30ernest wrote:
24 Mar 2020, 02:11


So UK is no longer going for the "herd immunity" strategy?

Singapore has re-opened its schools. I wonder how that will turn out. According to their government, there was no evidence the young was spreading the infections to the adults (it was mostly the adults infecting the young).
I think the herd immunity strategy is a bit misunderstood.

Here in the Netherlands, it was also announced as such - but a 'flatten the curve' strategy would be a more appropriate explanation. The underlying idea is that a full lock-down would perhaps lead to a near-eradication of cases, but could never be maintained in the long run - leading to an oscillatory outburst/lockdown strategy for a long time. Hence, the [social distancing/partial lockdown] option was chosen, intended to get a steady stream of infections (as they are not completely unavoidable), but not one that exceeds intensive care capacity. In essence, hit the sweet spot between keeping a somewhat liveable live and not overloading the healthcare system. An added benefit is that slowly herd immunity will emerge, but that's not the main objective. It would also be quite time-taking. In NL, we have about 1100 IC beds regularly - let's call it 2000 in times of crisis. With a typical IC residence time of 2 weeks for corona patients, that's 1000 patients that can be admitted each week. If about 6% of total cases would hit the IC and 50% of the country needs to be infected for herd immunity, that means 500k people will hit the IC - 500 weeks or 10 years for herd immunity. Even if we manage to significantly boost IC capacity, fewer cases would be admitted, and the residence time would be shorter, we're easily looking at 1-3 years or so.

Anyway, the 'added benefit' of herd immunity was emphasized too much and hence picked up by quite some people as the main objective, leading to confusion (should we get ill, then?) and even some people being more relaxed about measures because "we're not at risk, so better get our immunity in". They should never have mentioned it in the first place and just clearly told what it was about: not overloading the IC.
I wouldn't be surprised if our prime Minister changed its tone regarding herd immunization because of a legal basis. Not looking for conspiracy theories, but if you say we do herd immunization, you basically accept we will have casualties.

Since the approach hasn't really changed since than and you cannot expect that the virus will go away any time soon, it is still the herd immunization scenario. Flattening the curve won't help in the end I suppose unless we can cure people within a couple of months.
The idea is not so people do not get infected, its so that they do not all get infected at the same time, so there is a flow through ICU, rather than people turning up and all the beds are already full and will be for the next 2 weeks.

It seems that the worst cases (less than 20%) when in ICU beds have a 50/50 chance, but without ICU it drops to around 9.
When arguing with a fool, be sure the other person is not doing the same thing.

aral
aral
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Re: COVID-19 could affect more races this year.

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DChemTech wrote:
24 Mar 2020, 16:43

Nope, not according to wikipedia anyway:

ok, thanks for that! it appears that a person who came of age in the 21 st century is a millenial ! i learn something new every day ! so, sorry ...silo

Just_a_fan
Just_a_fan
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Re: COVID-19 could affect more races this year.

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izzy wrote:
24 Mar 2020, 16:48
The trouble with young people today is that with our so called smart phones we do actually know everything :lol:
Er, no. The trouble is that people believe everything they read on their smartphones. That's a very different thing indeed.

The smartphone is the single biggest facilitator of lies, half-truths, rumours, and downright dangerous misinformation.
If you are more fortunate than others, build a larger table not a taller fence.

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nzjrs
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Re: COVID-19 could affect more races this year.

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Just_a_fan wrote:
24 Mar 2020, 19:27
izzy wrote:
24 Mar 2020, 16:48
The trouble with young people today is that with our so called smart phones we do actually know everything :lol:
Er, no. The trouble is that people believe everything they read on their smartphones. That's a very different thing indeed.

The smartphone is the single biggest facilitator of lies, half-truths, rumours, and downright dangerous misinformation.
=D> =D> =D>

If personal visitation was not currently prohibited, I'd visit and buy you a beer.

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RZS10
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Just claim you're bringing him some 'essentials' bring beer and toilet paper and some canned goods and then chill ... 1.5m apart, ofc

https://www.focus.de/gesundheit/drosten ... 08927.html

According to a Hong Kong study (and corraborated with data from Munich) the infectivity starts 2.5 days before the first symptoms appear, 44% of those who infected others did so before they had any symptoms. The viral concentration in patients throats who had day1 symptoms was already decreasing drastically, which means that the viral 'peak' is reached before the first day.

This is what sets it apart from SARS back then, the peak in infectivity was reached some time after the symptoms appeared.

mmred
mmred
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Re: COVID-19 could affect more races this year.

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RZS10 wrote:
24 Mar 2020, 19:39
Just claim you're bringing him some 'essentials' bring beer and toilet paper and some canned goods and then chill ... 1.5m apart, ofc

https://www.focus.de/gesundheit/drosten ... 08927.html

According to a Hong Kong study (and corraborated with data from Munich) the infectivity starts 2.5 days before the first symptoms appear, 44% of those who infected others did so before they had any symptoms. The viral concentration in patients throats who had day1 symptoms was already decreasing drastically, which means that the viral 'peak' is reached before the first day.

This is what sets it apart from SARS back then, the peak in infectivity was reached some time after the symptoms appeared.
That s even more subtle and dangerous

izzy
izzy
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Re: COVID-19 could affect more races this year.

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Just_a_fan wrote:
24 Mar 2020, 19:27
izzy wrote:
24 Mar 2020, 16:48
The trouble with young people today is that with our so called smart phones we do actually know everything :lol:
Er, no. The trouble is that people believe everything they read on their smartphones. That's a very different thing indeed.

The smartphone is the single biggest facilitator of lies, half-truths, rumours, and downright dangerous misinformation.
if you've grown up with a phone and internet then you've always had multiple sources and comments, you just corroborate everything automatically. It's much more of a problem if you grew up with one daily newspaper and BBC news so now that's not so natural

but also, my little joke, we don't rely on memory so much we look things up and we can all do that. so now we can all contribute bits of evidence and reach a much more informed and balanced view of F1 and the epidemic than we could've done before. Smartphones are just power, that can be used for good and bad, and it's up to us which, but it does shift a bit of power from older to younger

NL_Fer
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Lol newspaper...

Anybody notice after a government press conference, it is always the reporters of written press asking stupid questions? Just looks like an f1 press conference after the race 😊

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nzjrs
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Re: COVID-19 could affect more races this year.

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izzy wrote:
24 Mar 2020, 21:19
Just_a_fan wrote:
24 Mar 2020, 19:27
izzy wrote:
24 Mar 2020, 16:48
The trouble with young people today is that with our so called smart phones we do actually know everything :lol:
Er, no. The trouble is that people believe everything they read on their smartphones. That's a very different thing indeed.

The smartphone is the single biggest facilitator of lies, half-truths, rumours, and downright dangerous misinformation.
if you've grown up with a phone and internet then you've always had multiple sources and comments, you just corroborate everything automatically. It's much more of a problem if you grew up with one daily newspaper and BBC news so now that's not so natural

but also, my little joke, we don't rely on memory so much we look things up and we can all do that. so now we can all contribute bits of evidence and reach a much more informed and balanced view of F1 and the epidemic than we could've done before. Smartphones are just power, that can be used for good and bad, and it's up to us which, but it does shift a bit of power from older to younger
Lol, please revisit this statement when you are in your early thirties and tell me if you agree. Let alone your forties.

I used to think like this, and then I grew up and learned the difference between facts (Google) and knowledge.