COVID-19 could affect more races this year.

[Jambier]

So Canada being removed

France is supposed to be first race.
Of course we all know this will not happen. Our governement as already warned us "don't make prevision for your July-August holidays..."

Toto Wolff hope that the season will start in Autumn.

It is more realistic, but even Autumn, if there is a world second wave of pandemic, not sure it will happen

[Just_a_fan]

Remember how China's curve had a step in it? Sort of because it had a sort of second wave...

I seem to remember that the step was because they changed how they defined the infection. China was doing one way, everyone elese was doing it a different way. When China aligned with everyone else, the result was the step.

[Big Tea]

i'd say a general lesson is that anybody getting smug about their country doing it better is going to get nailed eventually! Mostly it's only been a matter of time. Nationalism isn't the best thing, just like in F1

Yes, virus do not stop at borders, no mater how tight they may be

Here is some background on ventilators, worth watching if you have an interest

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7vLPefHYWpY

[Phil]

Are Canada’s testing volumes really low Phil?

I did see their figures the other day and they sounded far better than many other countries and their neighbours in the US- I wondered why that might be.

I think Canada's volume is "ok". I don't think there's a definite line of what is sufficient or not. In reality, I'm guessing the numbers we're all obsessing about and analyzing are only making out a small portion of a much larger picture. But it's all we have, so I guess they'll have to do.

Canada's numbers are probably "low" compared to its neighbors is because Canada is a very large country with a very small population (population/area). Any country or region with a large population density will be hit harder, simply because the virus can spread more easily. Great examples are New York obviously, and... Switzerland, among others.

Anyway, I didn't want to make out that Greece is doing a bad job. In reality, I think any country that did a "lockdown" (regardless if full or not) early on has had an advantage. Some of us fared better, because most of us could learn from Italys mistake and being hit later. Obviously, countries with a large population density will still be hit harder regardless of action taken...

Going back to reality is going to be tough. As Aral (I think) said, this pandemic will only be over if the virus dies out by itself or a vaccine becomes available. The much harsher reality that will be hitting us during or after we come out of lockdown, is the economic meltdown. Lots of people will lose jobs, money won't be spent, will they want to travel? Will we be able to?

I miss F1, but on the other hand, I haven't been thinking about it at all, despite posting on this 'F1 forum'. The pessimist in me seems to think we will not see an F1 race this year and that some teams will really struggle to survive beyond this crisis. I sincerely hope not, but I just can't see us all coming out in 1-2 months and going by life as we have before. We'll either be accustomed to wearing masks, keeping distances or staying home. And I also wonder that once the lockdowns are lifted, if we'll be hit a second time.

In theory, I was hopeful that the best way to overcome this would just be a world-wide lockdown for a month. The virus doesn't spread and those that have it, survive it or won't. Either way, the virus either dies by the hosts defense or the host itself dies. But given this is going around the world and only a very few countries have actually done a complete shutdown, I don't think there's a different outcome of this going around the world (albeit at a slower pace as we continue to do social distancing) until a vaccine is developed and ready to be used... in months? years?

[Zynerji]

Several news articles today talking about all deaths marked as COVID may not be accurate. Apparently, if someone dies of something unrelated, but test COVID positive, it is classified as a COVID death.

So, car accidents, suicides, heart attacks and pre-existing terminal diseases are fluffing these reported numbers...

We need to just go back to business.

[PlatinumZealot]

Go back to business? As in go back to work and let more people die? Because that's what gonna happen.

We are not diligent enough to wear out PPE and wash hands on a planned basis. It will just spread like wildfire.

We have to keep isolation until the numbers are low in ALL countries across the globe.

The economy will bounce back. There is no money beyond the grave so surviving is the main goal right now.

[Big Tea]

Several news articles today talking about all deaths marked as COVID may not be accurate. Apparently, if someone dies of something unrelated, but test COVID positive, it is classified as a COVID death.

So, car accidents, suicides, heart attacks and pre-existing terminal diseases are fluffing these reported numbers...

We need to just go back to business.

It has been mentioned a few times that there is no distinction between death OF covid19 and death WITH covid19.
A very difficult distinction I am sure in many cases.

[PlatinumZealot]

Several news articles today talking about all deaths marked as COVID may not be accurate. Apparently, if someone dies of something unrelated, but test COVID positive, it is classified as a COVID death.

So, car accidents, suicides, heart attacks and pre-existing terminal diseases are fluffing these reported numbers...

We need to just go back to business.

It has been mentioned a few times that there is no distinction between death OF covid19 and death WITH covid19.
A very difficult distinction I am sure in many cases.

Do people actually care? If you die with it before it killed you, it would have killed you later anyway.

[Big Tea]

Several news articles today talking about all deaths marked as COVID may not be accurate. Apparently, if someone dies of something unrelated, but test COVID positive, it is classified as a COVID death.

So, car accidents, suicides, heart attacks and pre-existing terminal diseases are fluffing these reported numbers...

We need to just go back to business.

It has been mentioned a few times that there is no distinction between death OF covid19 and death WITH covid19.
A very difficult distinction I am sure in many cases.

Do people actually care? If you die with it before it killed you, it would have killed you later anyway.

It depends on how important the numbers are considered. I prefer to see actual numbers but I supose it makes no difference to those concerned, as long as everyone uses the same system.
Those without Covid could have died anyway

[nzjrs]

Several news articles today talking about all deaths marked as COVID may not be accurate. Apparently, if someone dies of something unrelated, but test COVID positive, it is classified as a COVID death.

So, car accidents, suicides, heart attacks and pre-existing terminal diseases are fluffing these reported numbers...

We need to just go back to business.

If it's not too much trouble, could you please provide sources. I guessed and could only find https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/0 ... ath-video/ and fox et. al. which report on the Corona task force briefing.

(FWIW, I don't dispute your summary of those reports, I just post links to save others the trouble)

I note also that every other country has been having this 'what counts as a corona death' discussion for the duration of this pandemic. Surprisingly, the different countries and their different counting seem to converge on approximately the same growth curves and rate of decreasing growth when similar mitigation strategies are applied.

I think that says something interesting about what is the signal and what is the noise.

[PlatinumZealot]

It has been mentioned a few times that there is no distinction between death OF covid19 and death WITH covid19.
A very difficult distinction I am sure in many cases.

Do people actually care? If you die with it before it killed you, it would have killed you later anyway.

It depends on how important the numbers are considered. I prefer to see actual numbers but I supose it makes no difference to those concerned, as long as everyone uses the same system.
Those without Covid could have died anyway

I still say lump them in the pile because they might have gotten better treatment if the Corona wasn't clogging up the pipelines! So what I'm saying even if they indirectly died of it... It balances out those that really died of it and weren't tested. Heck, If the stock market crashes tomorrow and some CEO dies of heart attack I would lump that in too! Ha.
Seriously though.. With these things it goes into your percentage of error. With the mayem in the hospitals is not worth a doctor's time to comb out Covid symptoms from some other disease. Even if that patient was not tested postive and he showed Covid symptoms before he died... i would lump him in too.

[subcritical71]

I'm not sure if this has been posted yet, its a great collection of reported cases with different tableau reports to show trends. Most US states seem to be a near the apex.

https://public.tableau.com/en-us/s/covid-19-viz-gallery

[hollus]

Several news articles today talking about all deaths marked as COVID may not be accurate. Apparently, if someone dies of something unrelated, but test COVID positive, it is classified as a COVID death.

So, car accidents, suicides, heart attacks and pre-existing terminal diseases are fluffing these reported numbers...

We need to just go back to business.

That counting artifact is true in most countries, yes. At the same time, in most countries, if you die at home and never get to the hospital, you will not be tested and you are not counted as Covid, even if you did die of it.
Which effect dominates? Will be country dependent, I guess, but Spain, arguably the country hit hardest, has some regions reporting thousands of excess deaths in elderly houses with only a few hundreds counted as Covid. Spain-wide, the excess deaths compared to other years are roughly double the reported Covid-19 fatality numbers.

We have selection bias, in both directions, and likely massive in both directions. But think of it this way: Say 5% of the population has been infected. Then only 5% of the people can be affected by those excess deaths after dying with Covid (as opposed to of Covid). For those to dominate, something like 50% of the population would need to be infected, at which point herd immunity would save the year.

A more F1-related thought: For any F1 race to happen this year, the host country would have to allow hundreds of people from the UK and Italy to fly in.

[nzjrs]

Do people actually care? If you die with it before it killed you, it would have killed you later anyway.

It depends on how important the numbers are considered. I prefer to see actual numbers but I supose it makes no difference to those concerned, as long as everyone uses the same system.
Those without Covid could have died anyway

I still say lump them in the pile because they might have gotten better treatment if the Corona wasn't clogging up the pipelines! So what I'm saying even if they indirectly died of it... It balances out those that really died of it and weren't tested. Heck, If the stock market crashes tomorrow and some CEO dies of heart attack I would lump that in too! Ha.
Seriously though.. With these things it goes into your percentage of error. With the mayem in the hospitals is not worth a doctor's time to comb out Covid symptoms from some other disease. Even if that patient was not tested postive and he showed Covid symptoms before he died... i would lump him in too.

Agree, while the plural of anecdote isn't data, I do think it just goes into the noise. Personally I've known of 2 healthy 60 somethings that died before they could be hospitalized, both not tested because of test shortages. They get marked as non-covid deaths. From the symptoms, health and base death rate I'd (and I bet Zynerji would too) take the bet the were Covid deaths.

One newspaper might spin that as "useless government doesn't have enough tests". Another country might declare them covid deaths without testing and then get accused by thegatewaypundit.com of "corrupt healthcare system declares all deaths covid caused because they want to stop trump getting reelected". Basically politics ruins everything.

IMO its probably noise and will come out in the wash.

[Phil]

To say car accidents are being counted as COVID-19 fatalities is absurd. They're not.

The deaths that are being caught up in the COVID-19 statistics are deaths directly linked with COVID-19 in some form or another - but the actual cause of death probably varies. Some people suffocate, some have organ failure, there are even reports of heart related symptoms that can lead to death.

I'm sure with people aged >80 or >90, this becomes even more difficult to answer; They may die with COVID-19, but they may have died with the normal flue too.

Anyway, some may find these numbers interesting, from our (Switzerland) Government:



Basically, yellow are confirmed cases, read are deaths and black is the CFR of that particular age-group. According to this data, 98% of all our 682 fatalities had a underlying health problem, that being high blood pressure (65%), heart related illnesses (56%) and diabetes (29%).

A few things to take into consideration:

- We currently have 22'000 confirmed cases
- The CFR in our country is currently at 3.7%, our deaths are still increasing (more so than confirmed cases)
- Switzerland has a very dense population, but we also have a very high testing percentage per capita
- Only people with severe symptoms are advised to come in and get tested.
- We've been in "soft lockdown" since roughly a month
- AFAIK our health systems had not been overloaded and we still have capacity

I'd also point out, that we still have many people in intensive care. There's no way to know if these people will make it or not. This may sway the statistic over time. In other words, older, more fragile people may have a smaller survival rate and die quicker relative to younger people who are brought into the ICU and fight the illness across days or even weeks until their fate is known.