2020 British Grand Prix - Silverstone, 31-02 July / August

[Hoffman900]

Well right now it's gone dark and it started raining.

My favorite part about F1 is, despite the technology, the human element and weather keep it exciting. This is why robot racing will never be exciting, even if they would go faster.

[dans79]

Their models, which are outdated by the way, new stuff coming in the pipeline. Anyway, they underestimate water vapor heating, so they overestimate temperature drop. It all depends on the clouds really, the sun shine will raise track temperatures nicely.

How about some proof?

[tangodjango]

Wow it looks very close between Verstappen and Mercedes. This could all change tomorrow and Sunday when it'll be slightly cooler, although I don't think it will be much cooler than today. It will largely depend on the clouds and how they affect track temperature.

It's seems close between Bottas and Verstappen with the Mercedes engine turned heavily down. Anything else is clutching at straws. We'll see tomorrow, hopefully it will be closer than it's feared.

[godlameroso]

Their models, which are outdated by the way, new stuff coming in the pipeline. Anyway, they underestimate water vapor heating, so they overestimate temperature drop. It all depends on the clouds really, the sun shine will raise track temperatures nicely.

How about some proof?

Proof is in the pudding, I said it was going to be warmer than predicted, and it was. What more proof do you need?

[godlameroso]

Wow it looks very close between Verstappen and Mercedes. This could all change tomorrow and Sunday when it'll be slightly cooler, although I don't think it will be much cooler than today. It will largely depend on the clouds and how they affect track temperature.

It's seems close between Bottas and Verstappen with the Mercedes engine turned heavily down. Anything else is clutching at straws. We'll see tomorrow, hopefully it will be closer than it's feared.

Turned down to the point that Bottas had the highest trap speeds?

[dans79]

Their models, which are outdated by the way, new stuff coming in the pipeline. Anyway, they underestimate water vapor heating, so they overestimate temperature drop. It all depends on the clouds really, the sun shine will raise track temperatures nicely.

How about some proof?

Proof is in the pudding, I said it was going to be warmer than predicted, and it was. What more proof do you need?

Proof that they use outdated models, and underestimate "water vapor heating"....

[dans79]

Turned down to the point that Bottas had the highest trap speeds?

Again, look at them compared to last years numbers, and you will see the entire grid is was down on speed trap numbers.

Horner said it looks like Mercedes are running "turned down" as they are quite slow on the straights compared to others.

Not quite sure Horner's right... from Fabrega:

Vel max en trampa recta (antes T15)
Max speed Trap (before T15)

Bottas 323 km/h
Rai 319
Ham 318
Alb 318
Hulk 318
Vers 318
Stro 318
Gio 318
Gas 317
Ric 317
Lec 316
Kvy 316
Oco 315
Lat 313
Rus 313
Gro 312
Sai 312
Nor 312
Mag 309
Vet 307

Compare it to last years qualifying. Mag did 325 in 20th place, Ric was 1st at 337. No one has the engine turned up!
https://www.fia.com/sites/default/files ... ds_v01.pdf

[JordanMugen]

Proof is in the pudding, I said it was going to be warmer than predicted, and it was. What more proof do you need?

Are you an atmospheric physicist Godlameroso? Very interesting.

I think part of F1 is so tech focused, that anything a little outside a design comfort zone is a talking point, where it may not be in other series.

These Pirelli tyres have a very narrow working temperature range. Arguably, it's quite ridiculous.

Out of the temperature window, you are nowhere. Ambient temperatures are unexpectedly high? Then everybody is nowhere. It's absurd.

[godlameroso]

How about some proof?

Proof is in the pudding, I said it was going to be warmer than predicted, and it was. What more proof do you need?

Proof that they use outdated models, and underestimate "water vapor heating"....

Their models are from 2012 and have had a few update packages, they have not introduced new models yet because of user interface issues. New models do account for some "things" that aren't accounted for which can paint a more accurate picture. The problem is that it is computationally expensive not just for the calculations, but the data set analysis that has to take place. The hardware is on the verge of catching up however, making the new models "usuable". That's all I'm willing to say.

[godlameroso]

Proof is in the pudding, I said it was going to be warmer than predicted, and it was. What more proof do you need?

Are you an atmospheric physicist Godlameroso? Very interesting.

I think part of F1 is so tech focused, that anything a little outside a design comfort zone is a talking point, where it may not be in other series.

These Pirelli tyres have a very narrow working temperature range. Arguably, it's quite ridiculous.

Out of the temperature window, you are nowhere. Ambient temperatures are unexpectedly high? Then everybody is nowhere. It's absurd.

Nothing of the sort, I'm just a lucky guy who got lucky doing some stuff for some people and it's paid off.

[michl420]

With that short long runs on soft, I suspect Mercedes and Red Bull will not touch the red tyre again this weekend. (Q2 and race)

[dans79]

Proof is in the pudding, I said it was going to be warmer than predicted, and it was. What more proof do you need?

Proof that they use outdated models, and underestimate "water vapor heating"....

Their models are from 2012 and have had a few update packages, they have not introduced new models yet because of user interface issues. New models do account for some "things" that aren't accounted for which can paint a more accurate picture. The problem is that it is computationally expensive not just for the calculations, but the data set analysis that has to take place. The hardware is on the verge of catching up however, making the new models "usuable". That's all I'm willing to say.

Umm, that's not proof, that's your opinion at best.

[godlameroso]

Proof that they use outdated models, and underestimate "water vapor heating"....

Their models are from 2012 and have had a few update packages, they have not introduced new models yet because of user interface issues. New models do account for some "things" that aren't accounted for which can paint a more accurate picture. The problem is that it is computationally expensive not just for the calculations, but the data set analysis that has to take place. The hardware is on the verge of catching up however, making the new models "usuable". That's all I'm willing to say.

Umm, that's not proof, that's your opinion at best.

Ok, but was I wrong.

[dans79]

Their models are from 2012 and have had a few update packages, they have not introduced new models yet because of user interface issues. New models do account for some "things" that aren't accounted for which can paint a more accurate picture. The problem is that it is computationally expensive not just for the calculations, but the data set analysis that has to take place. The hardware is on the verge of catching up however, making the new models "usuable". That's all I'm willing to say.

Umm, that's not proof, that's your opinion at best.

Ok, but was I wrong.

You've made no claim about what the weather will be, just that the models are wrong. Thus i can't say you are wrong, but you also have no claim to being correct either.

[JordanMugen]

You've made no claim about what the weather will be, just that the models are wrong. Thus i can't say you are wrong, but you also have no claim to being correct either.

Godlameroso is obviously heavily involved in developing improved weather/atmospheric models and the computational capacity to calculate them, and is thus well aware of the deficiencies of the present, less computationally expensive, models used by all the major bureaus.