Bottas might have had a good qually, but he's by no means in any concideration to win the race imho.
Lewis really had a bad day at the office and so did Verstappen. I'd rather say Bottas just had a decent day,
and simply made no mistakes. Kudos for him, but there wasn't anything spectacular about his qually either.
Even with a bad day lewis was what, 7 thousands off him. If Lewis had a decent day, he would have beaten bottas by quite the bigger margin. If Lewis was in his 'zone' like he tends to be at the end of the session when things go good and he gets confidence, he's nearly untouchable. Today was a far cry from that.
Same for max unfortunately, but i'd concider for max he also had to deal more with a car that wasn't on the level it was for the past two gp's. I'd be inclined to concider Max had just as a 'off day' like Lewis had, but also had to deal with material that wasn't up to speed as it could/should/expected to be.
Still, i am fully confident that both will EASILY breeze past bottas within the first few corners unless they tangle with eachother, not an unlikely scenario either.
I think it's likely that the race will rather revolve around Hamilton vs Verstappen, and Bottas vs Perez.
The Mercedes seems stronger than the RB so i think Hamilton is likely to grab the win, with Max a confident and spacious P2. If Bottas will drive like he did for the last two races (actually, ever since atleast the final part of 2020), I think Perez has a good chance of making P3. If Bottas however has a decent race, then Perez is going to find a bit of trouble with beating the Merc and could find himself under threat from Sainz.
I'd feel like the race result reasonally to be:
P1 Hamilton
P2 Verstappen + Fastest lap
P3 Bottas
P4 Perez
P5 Sainz
However it's also not unlikely to be:
P1 Hamilton
P2 Verstappen
P3 Perez
P4 Sainz
P5 Bottas
To me, it's very unlikely that Bottas will finish P1.
I also very much doubt Verstappen will finish P1, but definately likely to beat Bottas though.
Win will certainly be between Hamilton and Verstappen.
I also believe there's a chance of Russell actually making P10.
Unless Mercedes messes up their pitstops, I can't see Max beating Lewis.
and even then it's going to be close.
After Hamilton and Verstappen passing Bottas in the first few corners, Lewis most likely will be able to pull enough of a gap after a couple of laps to prevent Max being in his DRS range, and then he can build a distance to prevent an undercut. Meanwhile Max also has to build a gap to Bottas so he doesn't get in DRS range.
Perez is going to be crucial here. If Perez can put Bottas under pressure, Max and Lewis can speed away.
Bottas then will not benefit from DRS and Perez most likely will, so Perez could find himself quickly reaching P3.
Since Perez does have the talent of saving his tires, this, paired to a decent pitstop strategy, could get Perez the chance to beat Bottas, despite the Merc ultimately being the better car. And exactly that could bring Sainz into play at the end. I would personally expect Lewis to have a better start than Bottas, and beating him into the first corner, which will see Bottas needing to brake more and Verstappen benefitting from a better drive out of the first corners and being able to overtake Valterri.
Things however could pan out entirely different if Lewis does NOT have a decent start and Max DOES.
This would end up a train of Bottas-Max-Hamilton, with Bottas being the cork in the screw BUT where Max benefits from a slipstream and greater talent than Bottas, Hamilton benefits from a slipstream behind the RB AND a better car.
Which ultimately could hamper Max from overtaking Bottas and needing to defend. Untill DRS becomes available and Max gets a far easier chance to breeze past Bottas, but that same applies for Hamilton and when Max passed Bottas, he will find himself in disadvantage to Hamilton being in DRS range, to which i don't think the RB really has a chance.
So i would honestly concider that however the start pans out, Max does not have a honest chance for the win this race, and Bottas even less. At best, Max could threaten Lewis in the end of the GP with a better strategy, but is more likely to see Lewis building big enough of a gap and instead opting to go for the fastest lap point.
The idea Red Bull are "toast" is not correct IMO. The car was still faster in qualifying but the lap was deleted after all.
