2021 Portuguese Grand Prix - Portimão, Apr 30 - May 02

[MKlaus]

at the drop of a hat, threads here derail into that exact one topic. no marks for guessing!

anyone have a good weather prediction for this weekend?

I think you need this thread for discussions about this weekend's race / weather.

makes sense right? i thought i can contribute too.

[drunkf1fan]

The really shocking thing to me is how poorly Bottas has been able to do with all of Ham's data and frankly following Hamilton from behind in so many races that he can't go, wait I gain in corner 3/6/9 a bunch but my tires wear out earlier. There must be info in the data that shows he's pushing more in certain corners and that it's hurting him.

I’m not sure, but i get a feeling that Hamilton plays things more closely to his chest where such things would be revealed, i.e. FP1 and FP2. Perhaps one of the lessons he learned when he had Rosberg in the team. Or Bottas has the data, but just cant feel it as well as Hamilton.

I mean FP1/2 are one thing, but the tracks don't change much year to year. Bottas is in his 5th season. How is he not sitting down and rewatching entire races with his engineer with all of Hamilton's data and seeing where Ham is pushing harder and he isn't and where he's pushing harder and Ham isn't. Studying the lines, studying the throttle application, studying everything down to the last detail and going oh ---, that's the difference.

Okay Ham might be less forthcoming with setup info leading up to qualifying letting him not quite be on the same setup or know exactly what he's doing but with years of data and knowledge to learn from a gradual improvement over time should be out right expected. To me Bottas seems the same driver in 2017 as he seems today, still with massive issues getting his tires to last and issues with race craft.

[PlatinumZealot]

Bottas... He definitely has good race pace in the practice sessions and perhaps when Lewis is out of the picture. But it seems once the threat of Lewis is there Bottas loses his mental mapping of all those little details of which corners to save tyres, how to manage brakes etc and he just seems to go into this mode of push push push.

[Sieper]

His tires lasted 1 lap shorter than Lewis’ last year at Silverstone.

He is just not as good as Hamilton in ultimate car control and in thinking through battles/situations. He is not terrible, pace is there, ish. Certainly in qualy, but he just thus not have that special bit extra. Which is why he is in that car, solid, not causing Hamilton issues. Quick enough. If RBR is for real there that might come under pressure, more so as Russell already is in waiting. Eagerly. Understatement of the year!

[PlatinumZealot]

Russell's race pace is in doubt. Might actually be worse than Bottas!

[Phil]

I mean FP1/2 are one thing, but the tracks don't change much year to year. Bottas is in his 5th season. How is he not sitting down and rewatching entire races with his engineer with all of Hamilton's data and seeing where Ham is pushing harder and he isn't and where he's pushing harder and Ham isn't. Studying the lines, studying the throttle application, studying everything down to the last detail and going oh ---, that's the difference.

To be honest - I am more and more inclined to think, that perhaps, Bottas sways his car-setup towards qualifying, whereas Hamilton on the race. At first, it seemed like a cheap excuse to justify Hamiltons qualifying losses to Bottas, but after Imola, Toto made a comment in regards to Norris and McLaren and that they were running their cars with open brake ducts to get more heat into the tires which significantly benefited their runs in qualifying, but would hurt them in the race when the tires will overheat and be out their window and that they don't have that luxury (given the fight their in with RedBull).

Perhaps it's an easy thing as Bottas swaying his setup towards qualifying. If he can get pole and outqualify Lewis, his chances to win the race are significantly better than qualifying behind, even if it means worse wear on race day, not least because the car leading gets pit priority at Mercedes. Arguably, the car in front can also mitigate some of that disadvantage by running in clean air and dictating pace.

If I was Bottas, I'd focus on qualifying more too.

The other factor might just be, that these tires and their management benefits Lewis's style better. Or he simply is better adapting to what is required. It's a tricky one. I honestly believe Bottas is quick and he has shown this more than a enough already - but once again, it seems mastering these tires is a significant factor once again and probably one of the biggest differentiator between Mercedes and RedBull (rather than high/low rake or engine advantage).

[Jolle]

I mean FP1/2 are one thing, but the tracks don't change much year to year. Bottas is in his 5th season. How is he not sitting down and rewatching entire races with his engineer with all of Hamilton's data and seeing where Ham is pushing harder and he isn't and where he's pushing harder and Ham isn't. Studying the lines, studying the throttle application, studying everything down to the last detail and going oh ---, that's the difference.

To be honest - I am more and more inclined to think, that perhaps, Bottas sways his car-setup towards qualifying, whereas Hamilton on the race. At first, it seemed like a cheap excuse to justify Hamiltons qualifying losses to Bottas, but after Imola, Toto made a comment in regards to Norris and McLaren and that they were running their cars with open brake ducts to get more heat into the tires which significantly benefited their runs in qualifying, but would hurt them in the race when the tires will overheat and be out their window and that they don't have that luxury (given the fight their in with RedBull).

Perhaps it's an easy thing as Bottas swaying his setup towards qualifying. If he can get pole and outqualify Lewis, his chances to win the race are significantly better than qualifying behind, even if it means worse wear on race day, not least because the car leading gets pit priority at Mercedes. Arguably, the car in front can also mitigate some of that disadvantage by running in clean air and dictating pace.

If I was Bottas, I'd focus on qualifying more too.

The other factor might just be, that these tires and their management benefits Lewis's style better. Or he simply is better adapting to what is required. It's a tricky one. I honestly believe Bottas is quick and he has shown this more than a enough already - but once again, it seems mastering these tires is a significant factor once again and probably one of the biggest differentiator between Mercedes and RedBull (rather than high/low rake or engine advantage).

It’s not just the driver that makes these choices. Both driver have their own engineering team and a team together. I don’t think they’re playing games with each other but these are more well discussed options they execute. Bottas his team will have full access to Hamilton’s team data and visa versa. The time that you sit with your race engineer in the back of the pits making plans is far gone.

[Shooty81]

I am thinking about the Mercedes startegy mistake about the fastest lap. What do you guys think, maybe they pitted him early for purpose? Maybe to compare the true clean air race speed BOT-VER?

[El Scorchio]

I am thinking about the Mercedes startegy mistake about the fastest lap. What do you guys think, maybe they pitted him early for purpose? Maybe to compare the true clean air race speed BOT-VER?

No, it was just a mistake. Their head of strategy admitted it after the race.

[tnajner]

Russell's race pace is in doubt. Might actually be worse than Bottas!

You are absolutely right. Williams is slower than Mercedes.

[LM10]

Russell's race pace is in doubt. Might actually be worse than Bottas!

Remember Sakhir GP?

[NathanOlder]

Russell's race pace is in doubt. Might actually be worse than Bottas!

Remember Sakhir GP?

I'm not picking sides here, but in Sakhir Bottas was stuck behind Russell in the first stint, then the second stint after running a longer first stint, Bottas was pulling Russell in. Then the SC happened. So I would actually say in Sakhir Bottas had better race pace. But this was expected as Russell was in his first race in the W11.

[PlatinumZealot]

Russell's race pace is in doubt. Might actually be worse than Bottas!

Remember Sakhir GP?

Yes. He wasn't impressive there really. Also a mickey mouse track.

[ringo]

More sensitve throttle control is my take on it. Or if not that it could be that his driving styles is more gentler on the corner exit, the place where rear tyres take a beating?

I've seen a few things repeated about Lewis over the years that might explain why he makes tires last longer.

1) he is very good at getting the car straight before putting the power down.
2) he's very smooth with how he applies the brake and gas pedal.

He and Verstappen have both pretty much said exactly what they do, Hamilton after this weekend and Verstappen a while back, maybe after that Austrian race.

The biggest thing is changing corners you push to reduce temp, that is, the best way to run a lap in speed per lap isn't the best way to save tires. There are corners you can push, gain 0.2 seconds and heat up your tires badly and corners you can maybe push and gain 0.1 seconds but not raise temps as much. Ham said along the lines of you pick which corners to push but I really shouldn't say more. Verstappen said similarly after I think it was Austria (where Ricciardo pit again from behind him before his car failed and Verstappen won from an early one stop), that it's about pushing where you gain the most and backing off in the corners that really heat the tires. Combing a general which corner is best if one tire overheats a bit knowing that backing off a little more in certain corners will reduce that tire temp and they can push another corner a bit harder for a couple laps to not lost time and balance the temp in the tires.

The really shocking thing to me is how poorly Bottas has been able to do with all of Ham's data and frankly following Hamilton from behind in so many races that he can't go, wait I gain in corner 3/6/9 a bunch but my tires wear out earlier. There must be info in the data that shows he's pushing more in certain corners and that it's hurting him. This also pretty easily fits into the way Ham drives. Earlier in stints Bottas is pushing and is closer to Ham but towards the end of stints Bottas's tires go off and Ham often pulls out an extra 6-10 seconds in only 3-4 laps before Bottas is forced to pit. Part of that is actually that Ham just wants to warm his tires more slowly and let a little fuel burn off before pushing I would think but part is just that he's holding back for the better performance over the stint.

Ham and Verstappen are just godlike in feeling where they can push and gain time with minimal tire hit and where they gain the most tire life by taking it easy.


On the whole "Merc is trash in traffic" myth, well I let the cat out of the bag, it's always been a myth.

Every single season you get a few tracks that you can't follow and pass even if a little faster but that was as true this year, two years ago as 2013, or 2009, or 2002. Some tracks you just struggle to get close enough. But in all these Merc hybrid years there are 10-15 tracks a year that if Hamilton is in traffic he goes through that traffic like butter while Rosberg or Bottas struggled at the same tracks. Bottas struggling to make passes in multiple tracks while Hamilton doesn't have trouble is in no way down to the Merc being bad in traffic and that has never been the case.

A couple years you might simply get the only times Ham is behind is a track with horrible overtaking and then combine that with multiple tracks Bottas is behind and he struggles and people go hey the Merc struggles in bad air.

Not sure why you are including Versappen in the analysis . Frankly I don't think he is there yet. Seems to be like the other drivers with tyre management. Now he has a good enough teammate; we realize Perez is at worst equally good at tyre management as Max. Verstappen will learn in time; but I don't think he is "enlightened" as yet.
There is more to come this season that highlights the differences in driver tactics between Lewis and Max; not just raw speed.

[Sieper]

And that is why Lewis tires lasted one lap longer as Bottas’ tires last year at Silverstone. How enlighted.