[2018] Pecking order speculation thread

[TAG]

Huh? Ferrari had the quickest car in Malaysia. Easily. Undisputed. Vettel suffered technical issues in qualifying (preventing him of participating in qualifying) and Kimi, who stuck his car on the front row (at less than a tenth vs. Lewis) imploded with the same fault just moments before the race. Adding further to that, even Max passed Hamilton on track in the RedBull. Just imagine for a moment if 1.) Vettel didn't suffer any fault in qualifying, 2.) Kimi's car didn't suffer the same fault on race day. We could have potentially have 3 cars finish ahead of Hamilton/Mercedes.

I meant Singapore, not fully caffeinated yet.

[GPR-A duplicate2]

1.) Vettel didn't suffer any fault in qualifying, 2.) Kimi's car didn't suffer the same fault on race day. We could have potentially have 3 cars finish ahead of Hamilton/Mercedes...

I would also like to imagine the following. I know this is stretching a little too long. But I would do this.
- IF Max would have stopped as expected by Mercedes strategist in Australia.
- Fully knowing that they have f***ed up tyre pressure for Bottas in Bahrain, IF they would have released Hamilton earlier than they did.
- IF their gearbox wouldn't have suffered in Austria and Hamilton wouldn't have to change his strategy for qualifying and then for race.
- IF Vettel would have behaved himself in Baku.
- IF Mercedes would have kept Hamilton ahead of Bottas in Hungary.
- IF Vettel would have kept his head cool in Mexico.

Hamilton would have still been the champion! A season with full of IFs is always an entertaining season. Just like, IF Hamilton's PU would have held on in Malaysia 2016, we would have still be seeing Nico racing and @_iotar's existence here would have been far more exciting.

[TAG]

we would have still be seeing Nico racing and @_iotar's existence here would have been far more exciting.

LOL purely speculation, sweet sweet speculation.

[Bisonas]

I just hope Mercedes engine doesn't make some magical leap forward on performance, because if that happens the season will fast loose its interests .

It's F1Tecnical, not F1Magical. It's because of that that I'd love a team to continue to push the technology envelope, if other teams can't keep up, that's their problem. Fanaticals are the ones that lose interest. Fans of technology are the ones that rejoice.

So the fans that want more close competition and more suspense in f1 are Fanatics and all the others that are enjoying a multiyear single team domination are Fans of technology.
Well if you are such a fan of technology you can keep replaying this, for as long as you like


And let us the fanatics hope for little more close competition and suspense in F1

Keep in mind there are 4 engine manufactures and 10 teams. So If some manufacture can't keep up, its impeding teams that have nothing to do with the inability of others to keep up.
Last year for example we watched a championship that it was a common belief that if RB had a Mercedes or Ferrari engine, it would dominate. Mercedes would never have been able to keep up. RB didn't had Mercedes or Ferrari engine because F1 politics didn't allow them to have.

So you may be more of an F1 Politics fan and not much of technolgy fan as you think

[Phil]

... IF IF IF IF IF....

I perhaps should have put a disclaimer in there, but I was assuming it was clear that this is the 2018 pecking order speculation thread and that the context of the above is the car performance, aka the proposed "dominance" of one team over the other.

It's not relevant to this topic, if a headrest failure had not happened or a driver shunted off another etc. It doesn't change the relative performance of one car over the other and that Mercedes had the fastest package at certain races, even the ones they didn't win for circumstantial reasons.

Hence, Baku was pretty much a dominant Mercedes track. Hamilton may not have won it due to extremely stupid reasons (a headrest), but using that same token, Singapore was a Ferrari track, just as Malaysia was. Ferrari didn't win it for mind boggling reasons, but it was still a track where Mercedes didn't have the quickest package. It has nothing to do with strategy or anything else you mentioned. For the same reason, if both Mercedes engines had imploded at Monza on the last lap and Ferrari would have won it, it still wouldn't change the fact that Mercedes had far superior pace there than any other car.

Again, this topic is about the pecking order for 2018 and bearing in mind that Mercedes, Ferrari and RedBull have brought evolutions of their 2017 car to this season, the relative performance of the team the year before bears a lot of relevance, just as there was a lot of relevance behind Mercedes being clear favorites in 2015 (after 2014) and 2016 (after 2015).

If Hamilton had won or not his 4th WDC title if this or that hadn't happen has zero to do with this topic.

[GPR-A duplicate2]

I get your argument in principle and I agree with you that, W09 was nowhere being dominant. Not sure what makes people to get this. It was the fastest car, when all parameters were aligned, but not dominant. Except for Silverstone, Suzuka and Abu Dhabi, the difference in qualifying to Ferrari wasn't anywhere near to what it used to be from 2014-16.

I was highlighting that, the net outcome of the season would have looked the same, if we could make the wrong things right.

[dans79]

Speaking of which, I wonder why Mercedes went with the long wheelbase and low-rake solution. Certainly, because they know this approach very well, but IMO also because it was closely connected to the suspension trickery (FRIC) that they heavily invested in. Ferrari got it banned and took one huge advantage away from Mercedes, yet they are still stuck on the long wheelbase and low-rake solution because going different, would set too many question marks and present unknowns. So who knows... can Mercedes iron out the flaws it had in 2017 using the same concept? How much will Ferrari improve on their already very good package? And how much will Renault improve that might just propel RedBull to a potentially championship winning team?

In my opinion Ferrari will hold station or go backwards, as they have never shown themselves to be a team that makes a big step in subsequent years.

I think a lot of the "pace" RBR showed at the end of last year was because Mercedes and Ferrari where in a just get it to the end mindset. RBR on the other hand looked to be in a "if it blows it blows" mindset because they had nothing to loose.

[Phil]

I agree, it wouldn't have been much different. The fact though that Mercedes and Ferrari were relatively close across the season, I think sets us up nicely for an exciting 2018.

Some relevant questions to the overall pecking order of 2018 that is relevant to every team (IMO):

[team]
- any huge regulation change impacting car or aero? [No]
- any other changes? [No, except Halo]
- any driver changes? [No]
- any tire changes? [*D, Yes, compounds will become softer]

[engine]
- any huge regulation change impacting engine? [*A, Yes, 3 engine per season instead of 4]
- any huge regulation change impacting engine? [*B, Yes, oil burning reduced to 0.6l per 100km]
- any huge regulation change impacting engine? [*C, Yes, oil components are strictly regulated now]


Possible conclusions in regards to Mercedes/Mercedes Ferrari/Ferrari and RedBull/Renault:

A) Mercedes could perhaps benefit the most, as they still have probably the strongest PU package
B) Mercedes/Ferrari could both be hurt by this especially in the race. This will probably have little impact on qualifying, as apparently the oil usage for 2 laps is not accurate enough.
C) Mercedes could be impacted by this, assuming they have additives in the oil that they use for more power. This could impact especially QF as also the race.
D) Softer tires could hurt Mercedes as they run better on harder tires in 2017.

Apart from that, most things are gonna be the same. Some of the wild cards for this year per my estimate are teams with Renault and Honda engines. Renault is still somewhat off both Mercedes and Ferrari and didn't bring any updates towards end of 2017 so there's arguably quite a bit of potential going into this year. From what I hear, the updates haven't been there yet for testing, but are expected to come soon (perhaps by race 5). Depending on how close that could get them to Mercedes and Ferrari, RedBull, being probably the best of the Renault engine teams, will have the most to gain. Also with the clamp down on oil additives and burning, it could bring Mercedes and Ferrari closer back to Renault. The 3 engine limit could go either way, but could possibly benefit Mercedes the most.

There's also lots of potential for Torro-Rosso obviously, now going with Honda, but also McLaren is another wild-card that are gonna be using Renault engines.


EDIT: Added tire compound changes to 2018.

[TAG]

So you may be more of an F1 Politics fan and not much of technolgy fan as you think

You may be a fan of teams not currently winning, Occam's razor.

[dans79]

You may be a fan of teams not currently winning, Occam's razor.

That would be my suspicion as well!

[Nathanael F1]

Dang, I had no idea my speculation would anger so many people! Who knows, Mercedes might have the fastest car overall but fail to set it up correctly at a couple races, giving points to other drivers. Or maybe Hamilton loses motivation and focuses on music or something. Haha

[McHonda]

1. Mercedes (but WDC goes to Vettel)

If Merc has equal or faster car than Ferrari....WDC to Vettel over Hamilton ? Good one

2012?

There are many variables that could see Lewis lose despite having the quickest car. It's (arguably) happened 3 times in his career already so it's not that funny to imagine, is it?

He can drive better but still lose, much like 2012 (imo), so I don't think it matters who's better really. You need everything else to go your way too. Car speed,reliability,strategy and circumstances in general decide more than the drivers talent does in my opinion.

[senja]

What a comic posts on last two pages

Dude says as argument that Vettel couldn't pass Hamilton or Bottas on few races in last two years. Especilally last year. What year are we talking about? Of year when cars becomes 2 meters wide? Of year when we had least overtakes.
In that year Mercedes dominated qualifications. And that was crucial advantage last season. And again, when only oportunity to overtake is on straight, who would be harder for overtake? Mercedes, of course, with strongest engine and fastest on straights...

And still, if Ferrari not have those issues...

[Phil]

According to the live-ticker of AMuS, Rob Smedley seems to think that according to their estimates, Williams is well in the mid-pack, behind Renault, but ahead of Force-India and McLaren. They think Haas F1 is about equal to them.

Michael Schmidt trifft im Fahrerlager auf Williams-Einsatzleiter Rob Smedley, der berichtet: "Nach unseren Eindrücken und Berechnungen liegen wir im guten Mittelfeld. Hinter Renault, aber dafür vor Force India und McLaren. HaasF1 sehe ich in etwa auf unserem Niveau."

[dren]

Force India has a car that looks like a carry over from last year awaiting a big upgrade. I am expecting them to jump up a bit in performance relative to the field in AUS. Haas is looking better than I expected. They seem to start the year well but then never can get to grips with their package. It will be a tight fight in the midpack. I wonder how good Sirotkin will be; Stroll is less than impressive.