2015 Pre-season Testing

[turbof1]

https://twitter.com/andrewbensonf1/stat ... 4426833920

For what it's worth, I think there was a reasonable point in the above :

People often state that a team who starts a particular rules era on top invariably maintain that advantage - it's difficult to overturn. But in the last rules era exactly that happened and this era is not dissimilar - diminishing returns and all that.

Speculation it may be but if we take the usual "can't judge anything from testing " then what else are you left with?

You can make very careful assumptions if things happen consistently. Like Ferrari constantly topping the time sheets now. It'll probably not mean they are truly the fastest based on what we know of Mercedes, but it does look like they made a step forward relative to the others. Although... Mclaren and Red Bull had so little running it makes comparing difficult.

You can always make logical assumptions, as long as you consider the "but's", "if's" and "however's" too.

Yes, I was just applying some logic, with the PU restrictions in terms of Fuel flow, energy harvesting and energy deployment in place there is only a finite amount of power to be gained. The Law of diminishing returns also plays a much bigger role with such tight technical restrictions.
Merc had a very highly developed PU in 2014 compared to the conservative approaches by the other engine suppliers.
Taking this into consideration, we will se that the "under performing" engines will make a much bigger step forward than Merc and we will have a much more competitive season, in fact, we will have a title fight. Very good for F1! =D>

Yes, but the same law of diminishing returns means Mercedes is higher up the curve. If we keep strictly to that, it'll mean that the competition will chip away at the advantage Mercedes has (logical and reasonable), but it'll also mean that Mercedes will always keep some advantage, however small it is or will become. Of course chances are always Mercedes makes a misstep, and chances are also the competition makes a misstep. In that case either you can get out of the trap of diminishing returns, or sink even deeper into it.

They aren't standing still either, like your first comment suggested. This second comment is much better =D> . +1.

[Spoutnik]

An interesting scenario that might unfold in 2015:

Considering that Mercedes AMG F1 has Brawn-Mercedes GP DNA, the possibility exists that we might have a repeat of the 2009 onto 2010 scenario.

2009: Brawn-Mercedes dominates with DDD, other teams are delayed with implementing due to FIA red tape and massive structural changes required to implement DDD.
2010: Other teams redesign and catch up, and Mercedes W01 (Brawn). is uninspiring.

Fast track to 2014:
Mercedes AMG F1 dominates with brilliant V6 Turbo Hybrid.
Other teams unable to make significant improvements in season due to FIA engine "freeze", thereby assisting and offering guarantee to Mercedes AMG F1 to maintain their advantage for the season.

2015: Other teams redesign 48% of PU and catch up, and Mercedes AMG F1 W06 is...

That's tottaly different, at the mid/end of 2009, Red Bull and McLaren (Ferrari also) catching Brawn. (7 win for Red Bull and 8 for Brawn). The technical superiority of Brawn at the early stage of the season was clearly the result of the twin diffusor.

The W05, last year, obtain the advantage clearly by the best PU and the best integration (different than the client team), one of the best chassis (with RB an Williams) and obvioulsy the aerodynamic. Look at the Japenese GP, the 2 Mercs had totally outperformed the others manufacturers (about 25 seconds gap between Hamilton and Vettel). They resolve the tyres issues, their pace on long runs is a way to OP. For example, Rosberg, 52 lap on the same medium set (99% of the race distance) at Sotchi after a pit at the first lap : finish 2nd above Bottas (last to 2nd). Hamilton at Singapore create 25 sec window for his pit on worn SuperSoft against Vettel/Ricciardo/Alonso on fresh Soft compound tyres.

I think 2015 will be more closer for the outsider, but Mercedes stay at the same level or they increase the gap.
Paddy Lowe say at the French TV Merc didn't use all update available in 2014.

Also, (Maybe intox) Toto Wolff say "Since Spa wev'e put all our ressources on 2015 car".

2015 is for Mercedes.

[Chene_Mostert]

https://twitter.com/andrewbensonf1/stat ... 4426833920

For what it's worth, I think there was a reasonable point in the above :

People often state that a team who starts a particular rules era on top invariably maintain that advantage - it's difficult to overturn. But in the last rules era exactly that happened and this era is not dissimilar - diminishing returns and all that.

Speculation it may be but if we take the usual "can't judge anything from testing " then what else are you left with?

You can make very careful assumptions if things happen consistently. Like Ferrari constantly topping the time sheets now. It'll probably not mean they are truly the fastest based on what we know of Mercedes, but it does look like they made a step forward relative to the others. Although... Mclaren and Red Bull had so little running it makes comparing difficult.

You can always make logical assumptions, as long as you consider the "but's", "if's" and "however's" too.

Yes, I was just applying some logic, with the PU restrictions in terms of Fuel flow, energy harvesting and energy deployment in place there is only a finite amount of power to be gained. The Law of diminishing returns also plays a much bigger role with such tight technical restrictions.
Merc had a very highly developed PU in 2014 compared to the conservative approaches by the other engine suppliers.
Taking this into consideration, we will se that the "under performing" engines will make a much bigger step forward than Merc and we will have a much more competitive season, in fact, we will have a title fight. Very good for F1! =D>

Yes, but the same law of diminishing returns means Mercedes is higher up the curve. If we keep strictly to that, it'll mean that the competition will chip away at the advantage Mercedes has (logical and reasonable), but it'll also mean that Mercedes will always keep some advantage, however small it is or will become. Of course chances are always Mercedes makes a misstep, and chances are also the competition makes a misstep. In that case either you can get out of the trap of diminishing returns, or sink even deeper into it.

They aren't standing still either, like your first comment suggested. This second comment is much better =D> .

Merc can only develop within the framework of the technical restrictions, once they reach 100% of the available potential performance of the current PU and regulation combination, they will remain at 100% and only refine
Under performing teams will make gains up to 100%. Renault director Cyril Abiteboul also mentioned something similar.
Of course the counter argument is, we do not know how far away Merc is from 100%!
But with 100Kg/h sampled 5X per second limit and the suggested output of the current Merc PU it can be extrapolated that they were running between 95 to 97% of max available PU potential.

[turbof1]

Merc can only develop within the framework of the technical restrictions, once they reach 100% of the available potential performance of the current PU and regulation combination, they will remain at 100% and only refine
Under performing teams will make gains up to 100%. Renault director Cyril Abiteboul also mentioned something similar.
Of course the counter argument is, we do not know how far away Merc is from 100%!
But with 100Kg/h sampled 5X per second limit and the suggested output of the current Merc PU it can be extrapolated that they were running between 95 to 97% of max available PU potential.

The law of diminishing returns also states you need to go into infinity to reach the maximum potentional. They always will find something, no matter how small.

The law of diminishing returns has one serious flaw though: technological breakthroughs. Sooner or later something new will be discovered which will revolutionize the sport.

For instance your example holds some truth. But assume now Petronas finds a brand new fuel formula, within the rules, that increases energy by 20% per kg of fuel. Or If Mercedes manages to recuperate 15% more from the mgu-h? Not that it'll happen, but there's more then just the 100kg/h limit.

For the record I do agree with you. The current rules don't allow that much potentional in the first place and teams will move closer to eachother. Still, talk is that Mercedes found a performance boost anywhere between 40 and 70bhp. Assuming it's within that range, it indicates there is still room for significant developments.

And of course rules in F1 never stay stable enough. While dramatic changes to the regulations can never completely reset the curve, it'll always push the teams a back further down. But that's a different matter, one where Mercedes can be pushed back further then the competition.

[Chene_Mostert]

Merc can only develop within the framework of the technical restrictions, once they reach 100% of the available potential performance of the current PU and regulation combination, they will remain at 100% and only refine
Under performing teams will make gains up to 100%. Renault director Cyril Abiteboul also mentioned something similar.
Of course the counter argument is, we do not know how far away Merc is from 100%!
But with 100Kg/h sampled 5X per second limit and the suggested output of the current Merc PU it can be extrapolated that they were running between 95 to 97% of max available PU potential.

The law of diminishing returns also states you need to go into infinity to reach the maximum potentional. They always will find something, no matter how small.

The law of diminishing returns has one serious flaw though: technological breakthroughs. Sooner or later something new will be discovered which will revolutionize the sport.

For instance your example holds some truth. But assume now Petronas finds a brand new fuel formula, within the rules, that increases energy by 20% per kg of fuel. Or If Mercedes manages to recuperate 15% more from the mgu-h? Not that it'll happen, but there's more then just the 100kg/h limit.

For the record I do agree with you. The current rules don't allow that much potentional in the first place and teams will move closer to eachother. Still, talk is that Mercedes found a performance boost anywhere between 40 and 70bhp. Assuming it's within that range, it indicates there is still room for significant developments.

And of course rules in F1 never stay stable enough. While dramatic changes to the regulations can never completely reset the curve, it'll always push the teams a back further down. But that's a different matter, one where Mercedes can be pushed back further then the competition.

Unfortunately the fuel composition is also very closely regulated and exotic "brews" from the early 90's is no longer allowed.
If however PETRONAS creates a "legal" fuel with 20% more calorific value, then Merc would have to design a 4 stroke reciprocating internal combustion engine with thermal efficiency levels that is physically un heard of, It would have to be a revolution for ICE's, else they will just generate heat. ( the most efficient ICE's currently only convert 40% chemical energy to kinetic energy, and due to the operating principles of 4 stroke ICE's adding significantly more chemical energy does not directly convert to additional power ( 40% conversion rate is not linear) due to increased friction, heat build up and temperature related pumping losses.

then again if it is possible for PETRONAS, it is also possible for Shell and total...

Anyway looking forward to todays testing coming up, I predict we might see a 1:23.2 very soon.

[turbof1]

Fair enough. They aren't going to find 20% realistically either, just want to emphasise that the fuel flow limit is only one limit; increasing efficiency by either generating more electric energy indirectly from the fuel or even increasing rpm efficiency does widen the development window a bit. Simply put: there's potentional to get more kinetic energy out of the same amount of fuel.

And if we do get into the very marginal increases, well... 2017 isn't that far off .

But I digress, the point was Mercedes will probably still have some advantage relative to the others.

[Sevach]

https://twitter.com/andrewbensonf1/stat ... 4426833920

For what it's worth, I think there was a reasonable point in the above :

People often state that a team who starts a particular rules era on top invariably maintain that advantage - it's difficult to overturn. But in the last rules era exactly that happened and this era is not dissimilar - diminishing returns and all that.

Speculation it may be but if we take the usual "can't judge anything from testing " then what else are you left with?

For some comparison Alonso was 328 through the speed trap in qualifying last year (Sutil 325).

Hamilton was the fastest Mercedes 334.4, fastest overall was Kvyat 337.7

[PlatinumZealot]

An interesting scenario that might unfold in 2015:

Considering that Mercedes AMG F1 has Brawn-Mercedes GP DNA, the possibility exists that we might have a repeat of the 2009 onto 2010 scenario.

2009: Brawn-Mercedes dominates with DDD, other teams are delayed with implementing due to FIA red tape and massive structural changes required to implement DDD.
2010: Other teams redesign and catch up, and Mercedes W01 (Brawn). is uninspiring.

Fast track to 2014:
Mercedes AMG F1 dominates with brilliant V6 Turbo Hybrid.
Other teams unable to make significant improvements in season due to FIA engine "freeze", thereby assisting and offering guarantee to Mercedes AMG F1 to maintain their advantage for the season.

2015: Other teams redesign 48% of PU and catch up, and Mercedes AMG F1 W06 is...

We have a certain 2XWDC in the car who can drag the lousiest of dogs by the scruff... If history repeats Merc certainly aint going down without a fight.

[f1316]

https://twitter.com/andrewbensonf1/stat ... 4426833920

For what it's worth, I think there was a reasonable point in the above :

People often state that a team who starts a particular rules era on top invariably maintain that advantage - it's difficult to overturn. But in the last rules era exactly that happened and this era is not dissimilar - diminishing returns and all that.

Speculation it may be but if we take the usual "can't judge anything from testing " then what else are you left with?

For some comparison Alonso was 328 through the speed trap in qualifying last year (Sutil 325).

Hamilton was the fastest Mercedes 334.4, fastest overall was Kvyat 337.7

Ah, that's very useful - was trying to find it but struggling.

As you imply, we can't infer most powerful pu from sheer top speed- kvyat being top last year is good evidence of why not- but much was being made after Jerez about Mercedes still dominating speed traps so thought this was an interesting snippet.

[McG]

Don't know if it has mentioned before, but most of the time it's not how fast your top speed is, how fast you get there is more important. Lots of factors to take into consideration obviously, but really we can't make much of top speeds as cool as they are!

[Vasconia]

An interesting scenario that might unfold in 2015:

Considering that Mercedes AMG F1 has Brawn-Mercedes GP DNA, the possibility exists that we might have a repeat of the 2009 onto 2010 scenario.

2009: Brawn-Mercedes dominates with DDD, other teams are delayed with implementing due to FIA red tape and massive structural changes required to implement DDD.
2010: Other teams redesign and catch up, and Mercedes W01 (Brawn). is uninspiring.

Fast track to 2014:
Mercedes AMG F1 dominates with brilliant V6 Turbo Hybrid.
Other teams unable to make significant improvements in season due to FIA engine "freeze", thereby assisting and offering guarantee to Mercedes AMG F1 to maintain their advantage for the season.

2015: Other teams redesign 48% of PU and catch up, and Mercedes AMG F1 W06 is...

We have a certain 2XWDC in the car who can drag the lousiest of dogs by the scruff... If history repeats Merc certainly aint going down without a fight.

And Mercedes has the budget, the staff and the time to continue be the dominating team. 2010 and 2015 dont accept any comparison.

And about the eternal discussion about Ferrari´s performance, Kimi has clearly stated that he is very happy with the car, and he is not the typical guy who says things like that if it is not true.

Toro Rosso is looking good, really good and I could say that they have the best line up in this team´s history. Both drivers are doing a great job being so unexperienced, talent is there.

[Chene_Mostert]

An interesting scenario that might unfold in 2015:

Considering that Mercedes AMG F1 has Brawn-Mercedes GP DNA, the possibility exists that we might have a repeat of the 2009 onto 2010 scenario.

2009: Brawn-Mercedes dominates with DDD, other teams are delayed with implementing due to FIA red tape and massive structural changes required to implement DDD.
2010: Other teams redesign and catch up, and Mercedes W01 (Brawn). is uninspiring.

Fast track to 2014:
Mercedes AMG F1 dominates with brilliant V6 Turbo Hybrid.
Other teams unable to make significant improvements in season due to FIA engine "freeze", thereby assisting and offering guarantee to Mercedes AMG F1 to maintain their advantage for the season.

2015: Other teams redesign 48% of PU and catch up, and Mercedes AMG F1 W06 is...

We have a certain 2XWDC in the car who can drag the lousiest of dogs by the scruff... If history repeats Merc certainly aint going down without a fight.

And Mercedes has the budget, the staff and the time to continue be the dominating team. 2010 and 2015 dont accept any comparison.

And about the eternal discussion about Ferrari´s performance, Kimi has clearly stated that he is very happy with the car, and he is not the typical guy who says things like that if it is not true.

Toro Rosso is looking good, really good and I could say that they have the best line up in this team´s history. Both drivers are doing a great job being so unexperienced, talent is there.

M
Only a fool would think that RB, McLaren & Ferrari don't have the resources to compete with Mercedes AMG F1. They definitely are not untouchable as many die hard fans would like to believe. 2015 will be a tough season for them we are already starting to see a trend developing in testing, and it will be carried into the season.

[f1316]

Not sure we can draw too many conclusions about toro rosso drivers just yet- for exactly the same reason we can't with the cars: they haven't done any of the meaningful work yet.

Personally I look back and think of the vettel/bourdais combination as being their finest. Often gets forgotten that bourdais was third on the grid in the famous monza 2008 race and had his big opportunity ruined by stalling on the grid.

Also- and I'm prepared to eat humble pie on this after ricciardo- I think red bull is sacrificing a lot of experience in their entire lineup which may come back to bite them. It's a conscious strategy on their part, but there's no one in any of the four cars with a wealth of experience, and conventional logic would tell you it's not the best recipe for success.

Time will tell, I guess.

[turbof1]

Chene, we can't compare Mclaren and Red Bull to Mercedes yet, they had little running.

Ferrari dominated the time charts in testing, but yesterday we suddenly had a Lotus on top. Is Lotus now suddenly the number one competitor? No, but we can draw one conclusion out of it: do not read too much in the fastest times, but pay attention to what they do. Are they doing long runs, Aero tests? How many issues do they have?

Testing is not racing; teams aren't interested in having quick laptimes at this point. Some are however very much interested in not having fastest times.

[Felipe 92]

https://twitter.com/autosportlive/statu ... 9376040960 Alonso`s fastest time today is 1m27.978s (development tyre, air temp 4°C) and Button`s fastest qualifying time last year was 1m27.335s (medium tyres, air temp 26°C). Considering tyres, temperature,seal problems and the fact they`re not running on full power it`s not so bad, at least they`ll be faster than MP4-29.

EDIT : Alonso improved to 1:26.741 (development tyre)