Fun race, great drive by Max and great car. Yeah the Safety Car gave a chance to Ferrari to win it, but without better behavior out of the technical section it wasn't going to happen.
Race Gap analysis
So this graph represents the race gap to the winner over the race, It's very easy to see that with Medium tyre there was no story, RedBull was simply better, Ferrari was graining and damaging tyres like in Imola. On the Hard tyre instead the race was fairly even, both when the 2 of them were further apart, and when they were closer, until Leclerc fell off DRS and then realized it wasn't going to happen.
But how exactly did RBR pull this off? A few of the laps post SC restart are insightful:
Lap 47:
There's no DRS here, you can see the top speed isn't a big differentiator, Leclerc is really close to Max in S1 and he struggles with grip there. S2 however starts to give us some hints, that would be the technical section T11-16. Max is really strong there, and despite the speed deficit, his S2 time is slightly better than LEC. S3 is unremarkable.
Lap 49:
There is DRS here, you can see Charles way faster than Max in any significant straight, by up to 15kph. Same as before, Leclerc struggles for grip in S1, massive speed advantage into T11 and then the technical section happens and you can see that Verstappen is on average 1kmh faster through it all, despite the lower speed from the braking point which raises Leclerc's average.
And then Lap 55:
Out of DRS range again. Here it's pretty evident now, Leclerc manages to get a slightly better S1, despite some sliding out of T8 that he maybe took too fast. However the speed advantage is gone again now, and from the start of S2 time the speed is almost the same, but Verstappen manages to gain 0.27s over Leclerc in basically just the technical section, equally Verstappen managed a better exit out of T17.
So what happened? It's pretty impressive of course that the car with less wing manages to handle the technical section so much better. While looking at the video I was noticing that redbull jumped around a bit more (nothing out of ordinary) into T17, and I think Ferrari had to run harder suspension to avoid porpoising, which of course reduced their mechanical grip, and here, unlike in quali, Leclerc can't afford the same impressive braking performance he had Saturday.
Top speed without DRS wasn't very different so I think overall the aero load on the cars wasn't actually all that different, a bit less for RedBull for sure, however that RedBull is very slippery with DRS open unlike the Ferrari. But even with a large top speed difference as with DRS open, or for the matter was the case with PER against SAI in the closing laps with DRS, it simply wasn't easy to pass, unless you had bad traction out of T8 or T16 or T17, which Leclerc had during the bad tyre degradation he had on the Mediums compared to Verstappen.
I think porpoising is punishing the balance of the car more than Ferrari has been talking about and RBR is certainly a strong machine.
Cheers, hope you liked reading this longer telemetry post.