Not a big fan of sprint quali, this one was not particularly exciting, anyway:
There really are 3 chunks: Ferrari and RBR on their own pace, then Mercs who have some compromised setup due to the crashes yesterday, and then the rest of the grid. McLaren has decent tire deg, if they play it right they could both end in points tomorrow, especially given that both HAAS seem to have a bit more deg. Perez cutting through the F1.5 championship like hot knife in butter.
This is how the gap went between the first 2, growing for the first 10 laps, then shrinking and the last lap VER really took it easy. Here's a view of lap times between the top 2:
Overall, either the fighting with SAI or simply tire management, Ferrari took 6-7 laps to get comfortable with the tires while VER pushed from the very start, however starting with lap 10 LEC was just a smidge faster than VER which allowed him to gain about 1s back in the following 10 laps. A few laps VER had DRS which LEC never had.
Let's see the average lap without DRS between the 2 cars:
- These 2 cars are so close, the average lap time difference without DRS and last lap is 0.03s over 23 laps. Pretty impressive how close these 2 cars are.
- Without DRS Ferrari actually has same or slightly better top speed, not by much but better it was, particular into T6 with a 3kph advantage. Pretty even everywhere else.
- Braking and fast corners continue to be better for Ferrari while T1 and T10 continue to be better for VER, like in the quali lap.
Tomorrow this is going to be a strategy race to pass, and yeah sadly I'm not sure right now I have overwhelming trust that Ferrari will nail it. The start is also critical and even here Ferrari has under performed at race start lately, except today they did well.
I'm predicting a train start to end of the race honestly, but hoping that something fun happens and Ferrari wins of course.