2024 Oracle Red Bull Racing F1 Team

[gshevlin]

The reason why they have not dismissed Perez is that they have no replacement that they can insert without leaving VCARB RB without a driver.
None of their junior drivers are ready for a move up to F1, and Daniel Ricciardo went back to Perth after his last race for VCARB and I suspect he is currently professionally unavailable, after Red Bull (as they always seem to do) completely mishandled his replacement at VCARB by Liam Lawson.
I suspect that they would like to try Franco Colapinto, but he is committed to Williams, and Williams are going to want a large bag of $$$ just to make him available for next season.
Borrowing a reserve driver from another team risks IP information transfer issues.

[FittingMechanics]

I studied the telemetry as well yesterday, and noticed Norris started to brake abnormally early into T7, compared with Sainz, Max and most importantly Norris himself on the following laps, whereas Max indeed braked at or near the same point he braked on the following laps. Which of course was later than needed given the inside dirtier line, but it wasn't like so horrible, like the media made it look like. like he wasn't braking at all, and divebombed from way back only thinking on crashing Lando out of the race. (which is particularly brain-dead take)

I was thinking about that trying to figure out what was the reason. I think I wasn't the only one who thought initially that Lando was letting him by (to give the position back), the moment we saw Max diving on the inside of T7 with such ridiculous speed. It looked like that on TV anyways.
I came to conclusions, it was a trap set by Lando. He threw Max the bait when he started to brake so early and Max took it, instinctively going for it, like he always does. There is no time to think in those moments, everything happens in milliseconds. But of course Lando braked only as hard to ensure he would place his car on the outside more or less side by side with Max, so Lando could drive off the track again and whine for another penalty. I just can't explain the other way why would he start braking so early. This kid isn't as simple as we probably thought before.

Explanation is simpler. Norris returned to track with dirty/damp tyres as he went over the grass.

[langedweil]

That is what is wrong with the Internet and society these days. There are people who think their opinion carries the same weight as facts and evidence do.

Nah, imho what's wrong is that opinions are stated as facts and evidence to prove perceptions, making the real trouble the killing of any debate from whatever high horse is ridden.

Anyway, it was most certainly biased stewarding, and felt like a fix for last week.

T4 Mex was T12 US except Ver kept it on track; there was an offtrack pass that should have been punished but wasn't.

T8 felt maybe wild because of speed and the fact that tracklimits were not held by both; the pass was made ontrack, there was no passing offtrack.
Because of speed one could argue about a 5s for crowding offtrack, but that's it. Then again overspeed seemed way worse because of Lando's early braking.
Onesided stewarding born out of overcompensation .. 1x 5s or (for the heck of it) 10s would have made more sense, 20s plus points is mindblowing

[FittingMechanics]

That is what is wrong with the Internet and society these days. There are people who think their opinion carries the same weight as facts and evidence do.

Nah, imho what's wrong is that opinions are stated as facts and evidence to prove perceptions, making the real trouble the killing of any debate from whatever high horse is ridden.

Anyway, it was most certainly biased stewarding, and felt like a fix for last week.

T4 Mex was T12 US except Ver kept it on track; there was an offtrack pass that should have been punished but wasn't.

T8 felt maybe wild because of speed and the fact that tracklimits were not held by both; the pass was made ontrack, there was no passing offtrack.
Because of speed one could argue about a 5s for crowding offtrack, but that's it. Then again overspeed seemed way worse because of Lando's early braking.
Onesided stewarding born out of overcompensation .. 1x 5s or (for the heck of it) 10s would have made more sense, 20s plus points is mindblowing

T4 Mex was not the same because Norris was ahead. This was crucial reason they punished Norris for T12 US (he was behind there). I do wish it was the same and that you have to leave the space to the other driver and not overtake off the track. This will become messy.

[Paa]

Venky - I think you math might need some re-thought.
[...]
So yeah, titles Max's to defend really, He just needs to keep scoring 10points minimum per race

I mostly agree with your math/calc. I even wrote something very similar to autosport forum.
However, I'm not sure I totally agree with your conclusion.
It is only true if you assume that Lando won't win multiple races until end of season.

However, you can just as well say, that the title is Lando's to grab really, all he has to do is to win at least 3 remaining races / score 100+ points (from the total 120).

He has the car to do that and in that case the pressure will be on Max to get some podiums.

edit: on a different topic. Can't we move all this Max vs Lando conversation out of this thread? It is really not the place to discuss that in such lenght/detail.

[6 of 12]

[...] I suspect he is currently professionally unavailable, after Red Bull (as they always seem to do) completely mishandled his replacement at VCARB by Liam Lawson. [...]

Is that because he is emotionally beat or just enjoying time off, getting drunk?

I get what you're saying about the mismanagement and that they have no alternatives without a downside. So, is this basically a 6-race shoot-out between TSU and LAW for Perez's seat? SURELY they won't keep him for next year, too?

[Wouter]

In '21 it was useless to take a fresh Honda PU for more power because there was almost no powerlost after 5/6 races, no no wear of the parts Honda said.
Is it still the same? Useless to take a new engine for more power because he doesn't have it?

[basti313]

[...] I suspect he is currently professionally unavailable, after Red Bull (as they always seem to do) completely mishandled his replacement at VCARB by Liam Lawson. [...]

Is that because he is emotionally beat or just enjoying time off, getting drunk?

I get what you're saying about the mismanagement and that they have no alternatives without a downside. So, is this basically a 6-race shoot-out between TSU and LAW for Perez's seat? SURELY they won't keep him for next year, too?

Well, it is starting to get difficult to say "surely".
They have so many execution flaws lately...
- Did not do the driver exchange in the summer break. Nothing has changed since then.
- Now brought themselves into a lock out situation on the driver market. Too late to get a good driver.
- Did not react on the drivability issues.
- Messed up strategy in Hun and penalty in Mex.

The big issue is still, what are they doing now? Law is somewhere on the level of Tsu. Which is at least good without prep, but far away from being superb. So they can try to put him into the RedBull, but the chance that he gets roasted like Per is not low. At the same time they have to put a complete rookie into the RB, Colapinto is not an option according to the interviews. So what is next, if Law is roasted at RedBull?
Magnussen is not an option, right?

The big issue is...keeping Law and Tsu at RB, keeping Per at RedBull and trying to get a good driver (Rus, Pia) for 26 into the RedBull or a solid read on Law in 25 is the most logical way...if only Per would not be THAT bad.

[Watto]

In '21 it was useless to take a fresh Honda PU for more power because there was almost no powerlost after 5/6 races, no no wear of the parts Honda said.
Is it still the same? Useless to take a new engine for more power because he doesn't have it?

Vanda posted speedtrap speeds in this thread where I think he said Perez and Max had the same wing… I think and Max was down slightly in every one of them

[basti313]

In '21 it was useless to take a fresh Honda PU for more power because there was almost no powerlost after 5/6 races, no no wear of the parts Honda said.
Is it still the same? Useless to take a new engine for more power because he doesn't have it?

Here we tried to discuss this, before Norris spoiled it: viewtopic.php?p=1254746#p1254746

According to Marko the engine they uses in Mex was already down on power. The engines have quite some changes since 21, not surprising that the 21 long-lived engine is not there anymore.

Furthermore the counting we tried to do: The two engines left for races have maybe 5 and 6 races on them, in the best case 5 races each. That would mean at least 7 races plus sprints in the best case if they want to go to the end. I do not think this is possible.

[chrisc90]

Venky - I think you math might need some re-thought.
[...]
So yeah, titles Max's to defend really, He just needs to keep scoring 10points minimum per race

However, you can just as well say, that the title is Lando's to grab really, all he has to do is to win at least 3 remaining races / score 100+ points (from the total 120).

He has the car to do that and in that case the pressure will be on Max to get some podiums.

Agree.
Going to be a couple tough races ahead for Max I think at Brazil and potentially vegas.

But, going through the maths, and seeing the mammoth points gap there is to overturn, it does put some rest on things.

It’s still a average net gain of 12points each race needed.

[PapayaFan481]

[...] I suspect he is currently professionally unavailable, after Red Bull (as they always seem to do) completely mishandled his replacement at VCARB by Liam Lawson. [...]

Is that because he is emotionally beat or just enjoying time off, getting drunk?

I get what you're saying about the mismanagement and that they have no alternatives without a downside. So, is this basically a 6-race shoot-out between TSU and LAW for Perez's seat? SURELY they won't keep him for next year, too?

Well, it is starting to get difficult to say "surely".
They have so many execution flaws lately...
- Did not do the driver exchange in the summer break. Nothing has changed since then.
- Now brought themselves into a lock out situation on the driver market. Too late to get a good driver.
- Did not react on the drivability issues.
- Messed up strategy in Hun and penalty in Mex.

The big issue is still, what are they doing now? Law is somewhere on the level of Tsu. Which is at least good without prep, but far away from being superb. So they can try to put him into the RedBull, but the chance that he gets roasted like Per is not low. At the same time they have to put a complete rookie into the RB, Colapinto is not an option according to the interviews. So what is next, if Law is roasted at RedBull?
Magnussen is not an option, right?

The big issue is...keeping Law and Tsu at RB, keeping Per at RedBull and trying to get a good driver (Rus, Pia) for 26 into the RedBull or a solid read on Law in 25 is the most logical way...if only Per would not be THAT bad.

Not discounting the possibility that Max does decide to leave the team at the end of 25, though I think only Aston Martin realistically have a chance of doing so with Daddy Stroll's deep pockets and Newey being there.

[basti313]

Venky - I think you math might need some re-thought.
[...]
So yeah, titles Max's to defend really, He just needs to keep scoring 10points minimum per race

However, you can just as well say, that the title is Lando's to grab really, all he has to do is to win at least 3 remaining races / score 100+ points (from the total 120).

He has the car to do that and in that case the pressure will be on Max to get some podiums.

Agree.
Going to be a couple tough races ahead for Max I think at Brazil and potentially vegas.

But, going through the maths, and seeing the mammoth points gap there is to overturn, it does put some rest on things.

It’s still a average net gain of 12points each race needed.

Well, what has changed? Everyone with an open eye, knew that it was Norris WDC to loose from Austria onwards. The trajectory was clear. He lost it in Stone, Spa, Monza....Religious people here were discussion the faint hope on a RedBull upgrade...but it was clear, that they will not catch McLaren nor Ferrari.

You can run the math up and down...if Norris and McLaren executes well, he will be WDC. But this is getting more and more difficult especially as they do not get Piastri in front of Max and fail to beat the Ferraris. Max can not do much more but trying to disturb this execution and winning points others fail to win.

[basti313]

Is that because he is emotionally beat or just enjoying time off, getting drunk?

I get what you're saying about the mismanagement and that they have no alternatives without a downside. So, is this basically a 6-race shoot-out between TSU and LAW for Perez's seat? SURELY they won't keep him for next year, too?

Well, it is starting to get difficult to say "surely".
They have so many execution flaws lately...
- Did not do the driver exchange in the summer break. Nothing has changed since then.
- Now brought themselves into a lock out situation on the driver market. Too late to get a good driver.
- Did not react on the drivability issues.
- Messed up strategy in Hun and penalty in Mex.

The big issue is still, what are they doing now? Law is somewhere on the level of Tsu. Which is at least good without prep, but far away from being superb. So they can try to put him into the RedBull, but the chance that he gets roasted like Per is not low. At the same time they have to put a complete rookie into the RB, Colapinto is not an option according to the interviews. So what is next, if Law is roasted at RedBull?
Magnussen is not an option, right?

The big issue is...keeping Law and Tsu at RB, keeping Per at RedBull and trying to get a good driver (Rus, Pia) for 26 into the RedBull or a solid read on Law in 25 is the most logical way...if only Per would not be THAT bad.

Not discounting the possibility that Max does decide to leave the team at the end of 25, though I think only Aston Martin realistically have a chance of doing so with Daddy Stroll's deep pockets and Newey being there.

Well, I would stay on the realistic "plan". Such a move would stir up the whole market if the Nr1 seat at RedBull is open. Like the Merc issue, I do not think they ever "planned" to throw Kimi into the car, it was a move without options.
And this is the problem here...RedBull is running out of options without even loosing their Nr1 driver.

[CjC]

Venky - I think you math might need some re-thought.


Points needed by Lando to be ahead of Max - 48points

IF we say Max finishes P5 in all his races (as you hinted) that would indeed by 48points. Add those 48 points to Max's current total of 362 and you get 410points.

Of course, Lando needs the extra point to win Max, as if he was level, it would go on win total - and Max has more than Lando, so Lando MUST beat on points.

411 points would be what you need to win the title.
Lando currently has 315points.

411 - 315 = 96 points needed from remaining races and sprints.

Even if Lando finishes 2nd in all remaining races, that will give him a total of 72points, and 14 points in the sprint .

That would give him enough to beat Max, without having to worry about fastest laps.

Even if Lando wins 2 races, and pulls 50 points, and finishes 2nd the last 2 races, that would be 86points, meaning he would have to finish 4th twice in the sprint races (excluding fastest laps)

If Lando finishes 3rd in all remaining races, that would bag him 60points - which would leave him short by 36points, which wouldn't be possible with the fastest laps and sprint wins.

3x 2nd place finishes and a 3rd place would bag Lando 69points, meaning there's 27points to be taken from the sprints and fastest laps - which is impossible.





Max finishing 6th place in the remaining races would net him 38 points, which would mean Lando needs 86points from the remaining races. A Max DNF and finishing 5th in every remaining race would still net him 38points.

Even if Lando wins every race going, and takes 116points. Max would only need to bag himself 68points.

So yeah, titles Max's to defend really, He just needs to keep scoring 10points minimum per race

It a very manageable task for Max isn’t it really.
Considering he’s still able to qualify well, no doubt due to the fresh tyres mitigating some of the deficiencies with his car, there’s every chance he might win a sprint or 2, there again because the sprints are short stints the ‘bad’ race pace doesn’t bite him as much.