I actually prefer the "intermediate" layout of Hockenheim - the one after that oval-shaped beast, and the one before the current layout, still with the twinky little stadium section. I loved that back then - the cars would be sliding around quite a bit in there. Fantastic viewing.
I think Vettel will take this one. The Red Bull car is fantastic through slow corners, whereas the strength of the Ferrari lies in the high speed stuff and not slow corners. Vettel is also very good in Hockenheim.
In 2008 he outqualified Bourdais by half a second, and outqualified Mark and Coulthard on pace. Webber started 1 spot higher than Vettel, as Mark had qualified with a lighter fuel load in Q3, but even then Mark was only a few hundredths quicker. And this was BEFORE the updates that put the STR on par with the Red Bull. (that came 2 races later in Valencia). Oh, he finished ahead of the Bulls then, too
2010 he held 6 tenths of an advantage to Mark in qualifying, before Mark couldn't touch him for the race. Mark tried pushing harder on his second Q3 run to match Vettel, but ran well wide at Turn 1 by overcooking the corner, losing 4 tenths in the process. Considering that the 2010 Red Bull was very good, but not the best, in slow corners, while the Ferraris were mechanical grip monsters with fantastic traction, braking and general slow corner pace Vettel still outqualified Fernando, by 0.002s. Alonso should've gotten pole, but for some weird reason started to diagonal the pit straight as he exited the last corner on his quali lap.
The surface is quite abrasive, but no real high energy corners. Methinks OOP like Hockenheim.