OK so after the initial shock.......and the 'WTF just happened here'......let's get some things in place:
Vettel out of RedBull > confirmed
Vettel to Ferrari > No official conformation, but Horner stating 'Ferrari made him an offer' and the 'Get out clause' are enough.
Danill Kvyat to RedBull > confirmed
Alonso to Mclaren > not confirmed, 99% sure he will, still not guaranteed.
Raikkonen at Ferrari > more or less a certainty. Still, who knows.
Button stays at Mclaren > Button seemed to be 'confident' about next year. I figure that means he's at Mclaren in 2015, esp.
since he still has good ties with Honda.
Magnussen out of Mclaren > IMHO, desptie Eddie Jordan's 'predictions', i think it's a certainty. Remember, K-mag only had a seat there because of 'contractual' promises, and simply put, things being a mess with Withmarsh. K-mag out and done, never to be seen again.
Toro Rosso > Max Verstappen confirmed
Toro Rosso > JEV out, confirmed
Toro Rosso > Carlos Sains Jr. seems probable. how about Felipe Nasr?
Mercedes > Hamilton WDC, hamilton stays. Rosberg using 'dirty' tricks to piss on Hamilton's title game, Ham out.
Rosberg > stays at Mercedes in any case.
Williams > both decided.
so..........let's see now. There are just a few variables left now, and i'd see it going as follows:
Final stage of driver 'market' depends on 2 figures:
1 > Alonso's team confirmation next year (Ferrari/Mclaren/Lotus)
2 > Hamilton's Championship result.
Hamilton went to Merc to get a 2014 championship. That's his goal, that's his objective, everything else don't matter. I'd even dare to say there might be a get-out of Merc if he doesn't get his 2014 Title. I think he will, but let's imagine he doesn't. So Hamilton out of Mercedes for 2015 would leave him 2 places to go : Back to Mclaren, or off to join Vettel at Ferrari.
This would make it interesting, because i'm doubtfull Alonso will accept a pairing of Alonso/Hamilton @ Mclaren. They clashed in the past, and Hamilton vs Rosberg clash is a dead given the same will happen again @ Mclaren. Still, not impossible, but highly improbable.
Ferrari expressed Hamilton is 'on top of their driver list', so Hamilton - Vettel @ Ferrari could happen, Alonso - Button @ Mclaren easily could, too. Then who'd be at the Merc seat is anyone's guess, unless the crazy thing would happen Alonso is paired with Magnussen and Button is paired with Rosberg @ Mercedes.
Of all the odds, chances of Alonso being at Lotus is minute, and there are zero signs to believe such a thing.
That would make the list as following;
1 - Lewis Hamilton - Mercedes AMG
2 - Nico Rosberg - Mercedes AMG
3 - Daniel Ricciardo - Infinity RedBull Racing
4 - Danill Kvyat - Infinity RedBull Racing
5 - Valterri Bottas - Martini Williams Mercedes
6 - Felipe Massa - Martini Williams Mercedes
7 - Sebastien Vettel - Scuderia Ferrari
8 - Kimi Raikkonen - Scuderia Ferrari
9 - Nico Hulkenberg - Force India Ferrari
10 - Sergio Perez - Force India Ferrari
11 - Fernando Alonso - Mclaren Honda
12 - Jenson Button - Mclaren Honda
14 - Max Verstappen - Toro Rosso Renault
15 - Carlos Sainz. Jr - Toro Rosso Renault
i could see this happen though
1 - Nico Rosberg - Mercedes AMG
2 - Jenson Button - Mercedes AMG
7 - Lewis Hamilton - Scuderia Ferrari
8 - Sebastien Vettel - Scuderia Ferrari
11 - Fernando Alonso - Mclaren Honda
12 - Kamui Kobayashi - Mclaren Honda
or this
1 - Nico Rosberg - Mercedes AMG
2 - Jenson Button - Mercedes AMG
7 - Fernando Alonso - Scuderia Ferrari
8 - Sebastien Vettel - Scuderia Ferrari
11 - Lewis Hamilton - Mclaren Honda
12 - Romain Grosjean - Mclaren Honda
or combo breaker this
1 - Nico Rosberg - Mercedes AMG
2 - Fernando Alonso - Mercedes AMG
7 - Sebastien Vettel- Scuderia Ferrari
8 - Lewis Hamilton - Scuderia Ferrari
11 - Kimi Raikkonen - Mclaren Honda
12 - Romain Grosjean - Mclaren Honda
i just don't know anymore
anyway, i'd expect
Hamilton @ Mercedes as Champion
Fernando @ Mclaren
Vettel @ Ferrari