zac510 wrote: ↑04 Aug 2019, 22:33
In hindsight Hamilton probably didn't need the 2nd stop, as Verstappen's tyres still would still have wasted away under pressure from Hamilton.
Verstappen was doing roughly speaking 79.5-80 second laps from when Ham caught him on the hards till Ham caught him on the mediums. He was going the same pace the whole way and if Ham stayed out he would most likely have stayed on the 80second laps the whole way so really no, Verstappen would have had to push just as hard the whole way.
The difference may in fact be that Hamilton would have spent probably say 3-4 laps attacking, 3-4 laps break, 3-4 laps attacking, etc and in those laps Max may well have ended up off line, fighting out of corners to make sure he's ahead so putting more pressure on his tires out of the final corner rather than saving them as much as possible.
In reality Hamilton had the superior race pace, it's inane to argue if this was Hamilton driving his slower Merc better, or if his car was faster, it could be either and none of us will ever know. Just look at Bottas or Gasly's pace, both Max and Hamilton were getting far more out of their car but how much more again impossible to say.
Hamilton's laps after pitting to the hards weren't even absurdly fast laps, they were both 79.6 and 79.3 before going to a 80.2. Max did this pace almost the entire rest of that stint, it was more that Max was 2 seconds slower after his pit trying to save his tires when it was clear Hamilton was going to extend his stint. it took him absurdly long to adjust to the delta coming down that fast and the team to tell him to get a move on.
I think really it was two options, Ham stays out on hards and pressures the entire race, has tire issues himself and probably never has a massive pace difference on those tires or he pits, goes to mediums, has to make that up but if he does he'll have a huge tire/pace difference which for Hungary means if he can make the time up, makes the pass pretty much inevitable.
Think Hungary in 2014 and Ham/Alonso staying out vs Ricciardo putting on tires and being like "see ya" when he caught up to them. Though in that case Hamilton didn't have (I don't think) newer tires or obviously slightly better race pace. So I think Ham could probably have gotten it done on hards, but the pass would have been like his attempt where he ended up off track. It would have been a tough pass on someone with similar tires and a smaller advantagee and the choice to go for the huge tire advantage was the safer option.
Hamilton also opened up that strategy by being so fast and upping their pace. I believe Ant said on the radio the team told him to take it easy on the tires and catch later in the race and Ham did his blammo, why don't I just get him now tactic and caught him in 3 laps. If Ham had done what they said and maybe been doing 81-82s, then Max would been so safe on his tires at that pace. It was Hamilton going hell for leather, catching and forcing Max onto those 79 second laps over that stint that made the tires drop off and opened up the chance for the second stop to make sense.
If he was 4-5 seconds back and only doing 81s and only started catching 15 laps later the second stop wouldn't have been open. He needed to be ~20 laps to go, <1.5 seconds to Max and pushing Max into using those tires. Both his pace in the first stint while saving tires, extending the stint and forcing the pace in the second stint made that strategy work.
, but I agree, with racing like this who even cares who won. 
